Falcons at Raiders
This game currently has a 49-point implied Vegas total, the third-highest on the week. The Raiders are currently 4.5-point home favorites and implied to score 26.75 points. The Falcons are implied to score 22.25 points as road underdogs. Weather in Oakland should be perfect at 77 degrees and a slight seven MPH wind speed.
Atlanta Falcons
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Matt Ryan
Oakland gave up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season and already appears to be on the wrong foot in 2016. Last week, the Raiders allowed Drew Brees to throw for 423 yards and four touchdowns, and their secondary struggled to contain speedsters Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead. Ryan is also coming off the heels of a productive fantasy performance, notching 334 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns en route to 27.4 fantasy points on DraftKings. At reasonable price points on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Ryan could be in for another solid performance playing against a Raiders defense that allowed the third-most completions last year.
RB – Devonta Freeman
Freeman truthers should be shaking in their boots after seeing the opportunities split among the Atlanta backfield: Freeman saw 22 snaps to Tevin Coleman‘s 20. He got 15 touches compared to Coleman’s 13. The offseason coachspeak of it being a committee played true in Week 1, and Freeman was significantly outperformed. As a result, Freeman got bumped down to RB10 pricing on DraftKings, seeing an equivalent Salary Change (-$800) to that of Jamaal Charles – a guy that didn’t even lace up on Sunday.
Freeman still carries a 10.8 projected point floor per our Player Models (eighth-best) but comes with an awful lot of red flags if you’re considering him for cash games. He does make for an interesting GPP play with the current consensus down on him and potentially low ownership. Freeman saw six red-zone opportunities last week compared to Coleman’s two, and the Raiders gave up the most red-zone trips last week (5) and the fifth-most last season (3.6).
RB – Tevin Coleman
It was great to see the coaching staff get Coleman involved in the passing game last week, but it leaves plenty of questions entering Week 2. His time on the field and usage suggest Coleman will be a regular contributor in this offense, but will it continue to be through the air? Coleman had as many drops last season as he had catches, and while the usage is encouraging, how will he be utilized in a road game as 4.5-point underdogs? Unless Coleman can capture some of Freeman’s red-zone work, it might be best to stay away from this backfield altogether until their prices come down.
WR – Julio Jones
It’s amazing that an eight-target game can feel like a let-down, but considering Julio saw the same amount of targets as Mohamed Sanu and Jacob Tamme, his Week 1 game stats left a bit to be desired. This was especially disappointing considering Julio matched up against two of the league’s worst cornerbacks. He’ll now spend most of his day lined up against Sean Smith, who was benched last week due to poor performance. With other high-priced receivers in fantastic matchups this weekend, Julio could fly under the radar; we currently have him projected for just nine to 12 percent ownership on DraftKings.
WR – Mohamed Sanu
Sanu was able to make a statement in his first game with Atlanta, picking up five receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. Seeing 21.1 percent of the team’s market share and 24 percent of the receiving yards, Sanu has established himself as the No. 2 receiver Atlanta yearned for last season. D.J. Hayden got worked last week by Snead in the slot; Sanu should see quite a bit of targets against him this week.
WR – Justin Hardy
Hardy saw just two targets last week, catching one for zero yards. He should be off your radar this week in DFS.
TE – Jacob Tamme
We noted last week that Tampa Bay was vulnerable against tight ends and Kyle Shanahan took advantage, scheming Tamme open and getting him involved often. Oakland led the league in touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends last year, largely due to how often they allowed opponents into the red zone. Tamme could be an under-the radar play on DraftKings again, given his $2,900 salary and 86 percent Bargain Rating.
TE – Austin Hooper
The rookie played on just two snaps last week but was able to haul in his lone target for 14 yards. We’ll wait and see if his role grows in Week 2.
Oakland Raiders
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Derek Carr
Carr started off hot last year and looked good in Week 1, going 24 of 38 for 319 yards and a touchdown against a poor Saints defense. Moving forward to Week 2, the Falcons allowed just 19 passing touchdowns last season, third-fewest in the league. That said, they gave up four to Jameis Winston in Week 1, including a deep throw to Mike Evans against Desmond Trufant. Per our Trends tool, home favorite quarterbacks on FanDuel in Carr’s $7,200 salary range versus a similar opponent Plus/Minus have historically performed above expectations.
RB – Latavius Murray
Last year, Murray received 307 total touches, fourth-most in the NFL. Surprisingly in Week 1, Murray had just a 53.85 percent rushing market share and got just 33.3 percent of the Raiders’ red-zone carries. He added two targets in the passing game, but DeAndre Washington, Jamize Olawale, and Jalen Richard were all involved as well; the latter two scored touchdowns.
This week, the Falcons come to town after giving up the second-most rushing touchdowns last year and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on DraftKings. However, last week the Falcons held the Buccaneers to under 100 total rushing yards. Priced as the RB18 on DK, Murray is currently projected in our Player Models to get 14.7 points but could remain largely game-script dependent. He makes for a fine GPP play as a home favorite in Week 2 but it will be important to monitor his usage situation.
RB – DeAndre Washington
Although Atlanta’s defense gave up the most targets to RBs in the league last year (25.7 percent), Washington should not be on your DFS radar for Week 2 even at $3,400 on DK. The Raiders’ backfield is much more muddled than we thought with Olawale and Richard now in the mix.
WR – Amari Cooper
Averaging 10 targets per game through the first four weeks of the season, Cooper was hindered by a foot injury thereafter but still had 72 receptions in his rookie year. Cooper looked fantastic in Week 1, leading the Raiders with 11 targets, 137 yards, and a massive 31.71 percent target market share. Cooper was targeted once in the red-zone.
According to our Matchups tool, Cooper should spend most of his time lined up against Trufant, who last season was targeted fewer times than any cornerback in the league. Trufant didn’t start shadowing receivers until Week 16 of last year but followed around Mike Evans in Week 1. Cooper will be a contrarian option this week given his matchup, but his ownership is expected to be just five to eight percent in the FanDuel Sunday Million; he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent there. He has the 11th-highest projected ceiling on the slate for wide receivers.
WR – Michael Crabtree
Crabtree finished last year 11th in total targets (146), 18th in target share (24.3 percent), 11th in total touchdowns (9), and led the Raiders in red-zone targets (13). He didn’t receive a red-zone target in Week 1 but did come down with a successful two-point conversion with the game on the line. According to our Matchups tool, Crabtree will line up primarily against 5’9” corner Robert Alford in Week 2; PFF grades this matchup as the 14th-best WR/CB advantage of the week. Crabtree has the ninth-best Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel this week and boasts a 97 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Seth Roberts
Roberts was out-snapped by Cooper by 232 snaps last year, but Roberts ended with more red-zone targets (nine to seven) on the season. We witnessed his volatility as a DFS asset in Week 1: He had a touchdown on just two targets (both were in the red zone). He had a 50 percent red-zone target share against the Saints. Per Football Outsiders, the Falcons were the seventh-best team last year against No. 3 and other supplementary wide receivers.
TE – Clive Walford
Walford showed promise near the end of last season. He saw a 12.2 percent target share in Week 1, but we know there is not much passing volume to go around outside of Cooper and Crabtree (56.1 percent combined). Atlanta gave up the most targets to TEs (24.9 percent) in the league last year, as well as two touchdowns just last week. It remains to be seen how Walford will be used in games that are not shootouts, but he is currently our third-highest rated tight end in the FanDuel Tournament Model.
News Updates
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