Buccaneers at Cardinals
This game currently has a 50-point implied Vegas total. The Cardinals are currently seven-point home favorites, implied to score 28.5 points. The Buccaneers are implied to score 21.5 points as road underdogs. Weather will not be an issue in Arizona’s domed stadium.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Coming off a four-touchdown game at home, Winston was one of just five quarterbacks to exceed 4x value on DraftKings last week. And in Week 2 experienced a Salary Change of -$400. In our Player Models, he’s projected to be in one of this week’s highest-scoring games again. Per our Trends tool, we see that quarterbacks with this kind of salary change on the road as underdogs actually outperform expectations:
Winston and the Buccaneers look to be firing on cylinders. With a FantasyLabs projected ownership between two and four percent and playing against a secondary that allowed Chris Hogan to score a deep touchdown, Winston may be able to exceed 4x value for the second week in a row.
RB – Doug Martin
Martin struggled on the ground last week and looks to have an even more difficult matchup this week in Arizona. The Cardinals allow a -0.6 Opponent Plus/Minus to running backs, the third-lowest mark on FanDuel. While they were a stout defense that was bottom-five last season in rushing yards allowed, Arizona was susceptible to receiving backs. Martin is coming off an uncharacteristically high receiving game, as it was the only the fourth time he finished with five receptions or more in 50 career games. Last week the Patriots continued to hammer the interior of the Cardinals’ defensive line with 22 rush attempts from LeGarrette Blount. Martin should be used in a similar fashion, but he carries some receiving upside following Week 1’s performance.
RB – Charles Sims
Seeing just seven touches last week, Sims could be in for an uptick in usage this week if Arizona is able to jump out to an early lead. When the Buccaneers are six-point underdogs or more, Sims has averaged +4.43 points over expectation. His +$900 salary change on DraftKings makes him a bit of a risk, but Sims carries an 81 percent Upside rate that is second-highest among all running backs this week.
WR – Mike Evans
Our Matchups tool currently has Evans running most of his routes against Brandon Williams, who was playing running back for the Sooners just a few years ago. After transferring to Texas A&M, he played his final collegiate season at cornerback. Injuries have forced Williams into a starting role for the Cardinals, making him someone we should attack regularly in DFS this year. Winston should repeatedly pick on Williams this week, with Evans being the main recipient of these targets. As if Winston needs even more incentive to target Evans.
It is possible, though, that the Cardinals could decide to have Patrick Peterson shadow Evans for much of Week 2.
WR – Vincent Jackson
Jackson was slow out of the gates last week, spending most of his time with Desmond Trufant across from him. V-Jax does owns a terrific +4.1 Projected Plus/Minus, the third-highest mark among all receivers on DraftKings, but right now it looks like he will run the majority of his routes against Peterson, who has continued his shutdown ways this season, allowing just 0.09 fantasy points per route defended, one of the best marks in the league. V-Jax will be tough to trust in this matchup.
WR – Adam Humphries
Running out of the slot, Humphries draws a tough assignment against Tyrann Mathieu. Humphries saw five targets last week, but is projected for just 2.4 points on FanDuel.
TE – Cameron Brate
Dirk Koetter is playing mind games with us fantasy football nerds. Consider the following:
• Despite Brate being listed as the starter, both Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Brandon Myers scored touchdowns last week.
• Brate led all Tampa Bay tight ends in targets last week with four but managed just six fantasy points on DK.
• Myers was the only receiver on the team to receive a red-zone target in Week 1
• Luke Stocker led all tight ends in snap percentage; all other tight ends saw less than 50 percent.
It’s difficult to draw any conclusions from this one game, and until we see any kind of consistency the whole group becomes nothing more than a tournament dart throw.
For Week 2: The Cardinals ranked seventh against opposing tight ends last year in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and limited Martellus Bennett to just three receptions last week.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
In Week 1, ASJ converted his lone target into a 30-yard touchdown. You decide which guy he is. The guy who got a touchdown. Or the guy who got a target.
Arizona Cardinals
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Carson Palmer
Despite the loss to the Patriots, Palmer ended up with his usual ol’ solid DFS line: He was 24 for 37 for 271 yards and two touchdowns: 18.9 DK points, right at his $7,100 value. He gets a much easier matchup this week in a Bucs team that has allowed 2.6 DK points over expectations to QBs in the last year. That is the eighth-best mark in the slate. Likewise, Palmer has the ninth-highest projection currently. What makes him so interesting is his low FantasyLabs projected ownership: Two to four percent on both sites.
If you believe that Palmer really is different after his heartbreaking playoff loss last season, well, OK. But if you believe that he’s fine, note that in the past year he has 8.32 adjusted yards per attempt, the best mark among all QBs. This offense stopped and sputtered at times in Week 1, but we still know the explosive potential it holds: Palmer and stacks are certainly worth more than two to four percent projected ownership.
RB – David Johnson
Johnson is a stud. In Week 1, he rushed 16 times for 89 yards and a touchdown and also caught four balls on six targets for 43 yards. He trails only Jamaal Charles and Thomas Rawls (among regular RBs) with a rush success rate of 56 percent in the last year. The dude is so good.
The issue this week is his price: He is a slate-high $7,600 on DK and a slate-high $9,000 on FD. Even still, we have him projected to exceed value by 1.4 points on FD and to be one of the highest-owned RBs on the week (both Spencer Ware and DeAngelo Williams currently have similar FantasyLabs projected ownership). Johnson leads all RBs with 12 Pro Trends on FD. He’s expensive for sure, but he’s easily in play in all contest formats.
RB – Chris Johnson
CJ is not in play in any contest format. He got some work last year in this offense but received only two of the Cardinals’ 61 offensive snaps in Week 1.
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
Last week I said that the 33-year-old Fitzgerald is still the guy in the Cardinals’ passing game. That proved true: He played the most snaps of Cardinals skill-position players (59 of 61) and owned 27.03 percent of their passing targets (first on the team). He caught eight balls on 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns. His hands are so dang good . . . some of those late catches, man.
This week he’s really intriguing in tournaments, as his FantasyLabs projected ownership is only two to four percent right now. He’s facing a Bucs team that ranked 26th against the pass last year versus ninth against the run. Fitz as a leverage play off the higher ownership of David Johnson — or, heck, roster them both — is a super interesting option in tournaments. The point is this: He should be in more than two to four percent of lineups.
WR – John Brown
I know it was only one week, but I’m concerned about JoBro. He was on the field for only 35 of the Cardinals’ 61 offensive snaps (57.4 percent) and saw a minuscule 10.8 percent of their passing targets. Brown did spend a majority of the preseason in the concussion protocol, so perhaps that’s the reason he was so uninvolved in Week 1, but it’s likely prudent to stay away until this situation rights itself.
WR – Michael Floyd
On the other hand, Floyd got 58 of 61 snaps and received 18.92 percent of the Cardinals’ targets. He caught only three of those receptions and thus didn’t hit value, but the involvement in the offense is encouraging, especially given JoBro’s situation. Floyd will likely see very low ownership this week, as David Johnson projects to be highly-owned and Floyd is probably a bit overpriced: He’s $5,900 on DK (that’s fine) and $7,000 on FD (meh). Like Fitz, he’s a nice leverage play off of DJ, although with the Cardinals’ high implied total of 28.5 there’s more than enough points to go around. Team stack, anyone?
TE – Jermaine Gresham
If you want a Cards TE, Gresham is the guy — but I’m not sure you want a Cards tight end. Even with the drop in snap count for JoBro, it was DJ who picked up more of the slack in the passing game, owning 16.22 percent of the Cardinals’ targets. Gresham, on the other hand, played on only 22 snaps and got only 10.81 percent of the targets. He has a very low FD projection of 3.8 points. Look elsewhere for a tight end.
News Updates
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