Today’s the perfect day to set some MLB lineups and have a nice sweat while watching college football. There are four day games beginning at 1:05pm ET. The 11-game main slate starts at 7:05pm ET.
Pitchers
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Max Scherzer is $14,400 on DraftKings.
This is a perfect situation for our Trends tool. In the past couple of years, how many pitchers have seen salaries that high and how have they historically performed? Is it unrealistic for a pitcher to hit salary-based expectations when the salary and expectations are that high?
Nope. These pitchers were immensely expensive and they still exceeded expectations by an average of 6.58 points.
There’s an obvious correlation here: Only certain pitchers with certain matchups would see salaries this high. In the past, pitchers at $14,000 or higher on DK have been 1) aces 2) in excellent spots 3) who have been dealing lately. Scherzer fits that profile: He’s going against a Phillies team currently implied by Vegas for 2.7 runs. He’s allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 18 percent.
Scherzer is expensive, but he’s still probably worth it. And he’s especially worth it on FanDuel, where he’s ‘only’ $11,500 and holds a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Dodgers lefty Rich Hill faces a Marlins team currently implied for 3.3 runs. At least for now, it seems that the hand blisters aren’t bothering him: He’s coming off an excellent outing in which he struck out eight batters and allowed a single hit in six innings of work. His advanced stats are solid: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 185 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 25 percent. He boasts a K Prediction of 8.6, which is behind only Scherzer’s top mark of 9.8.
Rockies righty Jon Gray faces a Padres team currently implied for 3.5 runs. His advanced stats aren’t perfect, but the two-game sample does include two home games at Coors Field: He’s allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 25 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 35 percent. In his last road game, he struck out 10 batters in six innings for a 42-point FD finish. His 8.3 K Prediction sits third behind the two pitchers mentioned above.
Yankees righty Masahiro Tanaka faces a Rays team currently implied for 3.5 runs. However, this situation seems a little risky when we look under the hood. He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 200 feet and a hard-hit rate of 43 percent in his last two starts. Further, his 6.2 K Prediction is considerably lower than Hill and Gray’s marks even though he’s more expensive on FD. He also owns the day’s worst Park Factor of 35 at home. The Vegas data suggests he’s a solid play, but he’s too risky for cash games given the other options.
Cubs righty John Lackey faces a Houston team currently implied for 3.9 runs. This is fairly rare for a Cubs pitcher, but he’s only a slight -118 favorite going up against Colin McHugh. As you can see, in his last game he fell below expectations against the Giants . . .
However, he still had a decent outing last game. In fact, he allowed a single hit in five innings of work in his first game back from injury. He had only four strikeouts but is predicted to do better than that against an Astros team with a .248 SO/AB rate. He has a K Prediction of 7.5. Lackey’s advanced stats confirm his excellent form in his last game: He allowed a batted-ball distance of 155 feet, an exit velocity of 85 MPH, and a hard- hit rate of 23 percent.
I’m pretty sure that if you’re able to throw a ball from the mound to the catcher, you’ll have a K Prediction of at least six against the Brewers. they own a silly .305 SO/AB rate over the last year. They’re currently implied for 3.6 runs and face Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright, who has been solid in his last two starts: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 186 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 17 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 28 percent. He’s certainly not a strikeout guy — his 7.247 SO/9 rate is one of the lower marks in the slate — but, again, he’s facing the Brewers. He has a 6.3 K Prediction.
Drew Hutchison will make his Pirates debut today against the Reds. He hasn’t pitched since early July, so we don’t have recent advanced stats to consult. However, there are a couple of variables that are very positive indicators for Hutch today. First, he’s facing a Reds team that has a very low .288 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and is projected for 3.8 runs. He’s also pitching at home — a new home in Pittsburgh, of course — which gives him a Park Factor of 92, the third-best mark in the slate. His 6.3 K Prediction is average, but he’s cheap today at only $6,500 on DK and $7,300 on FD.
Aces Johnny Cueto, Cole Hamels, and Chris Archer aren’t forgotten, but they are firmly GPP-only plays today. They all have tough matchups facing the Diamondbacks (at Chase Field), the Angels, and Yankees (at Yankee stadium). Hamels and Archer have been awful lately — they’ve allowed hard-hit rates of 61 and 48 percent — and they’re all very expensive. They’re all between $9,400 and $9,700 on FD in poor matchups. It’s hard to justify them over Hill except for in GPPs.
Stacks
The top-rated five-man DK stack currently belongs to a 1-2-3-4-6 stack of the Indians.
They’re currently implied for 4.9 runs.
On FD, the top-rated four-man stack belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
They are currently implied for 4.7 runs — a high number in a vacuum, but one that is actually ninth-best today. They could be a sneaky option in tournaments.
Batters
Josh Donaldson versus a lefty isn’t quite what it used to be, but it’s still a great spot: He has a .395 wOBA, .240 Isolated Power (ISO), and .512 slugging percentage against them in the last year. He’s been hitting the ball very well lately, as evidenced by his 235-foot batted-ball distance, 95 MPH exit velocity, and 36 percent hard-hit rate in the last 12 games. He’s batting second for a Blue Jays team that is currently implied for 5.3 runs and should be popular.
Brian Dozier has slightly negative splits against righties, but who cares? He still hits them very well: He has a .357 wOBA, .255 ISO, and .520 slugging percentage in the last year. And, more importantly, he’s been absolutely destroying the ball lately: In the last 13 games, he’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 248 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 46 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 53 percent. He leads all batters with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Eric Hosmer doesn’t have elite splits or anything: He has a .352 wOBA, .179 ISO, and .462 slugging percentage in the last year versus righties. However, he has been hitting the ball well lately: He has a 234-foot batted-ball distance and 91 MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days. Most importantly, he’s only $3,200 on FD despite projecting to bat cleanup for a Royals team currently implied for 5.0 runs.
Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara is also very cheap — he’s $3,800 on DK and $3,100 on FD — and projected to bat leadoff for a team implied for 4.8 runs. He’s on the right side of his splits against a righty: He has a .347 wOBA, .183 ISO, and .470 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s been hitting a ton of ground balls lately (61 percent) but he’s hit them very hard (45 percent hard-hit rate). He’s facing Daniel Wright, who owns the worst WHIP in the slate at 2.195.
Good luck!
