Bills at Ravens
The Bills-Ravens matchup currently has a 44.5-point implied Vegas total. The Ravens are three-point home favorites implied to score 23.75 points. The Bills are implied to score 20.75 points. Sunday’s forecast currently looks to be 83 degrees and sunny in Baltimore.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
In nine of 14 games last season, Taylor rushed for 40 or more yards in a Bills offense that averaged the sixth-highest yards per play in the league last season (5.7 yards). There were only five quarterbacks to average at least eight yards per attempt and ‘Tygod’ was one of them. Of 37 players with 200-plus pass attempts last season, Taylor finished seventh in Passer Rating (99.4) and 16th in completion percentage (63.7 percent). For reference, the league-average Passer Rating (five-plus games played, average 20-plus pass attempts) was 88.53, and the Ravens defense surrendered an average 105.48 Passer Rating at home (versus 96.11 on the road).
Taylor’s production dipped in the latter half of the season due to some lingering injuries, but he still averaged 19.9 DraftKings points per game. He is a better value on FanDuel, where he holds the sixth-highest rating in the Bales Player Model and an 88 percent Bargain Rating.
RB – LeSean McCoy
McCoy finished sixth in the NFL last year with 74.6 rushing yards per game and he did it on just the 13th-most carries (203, 16.9 per game). Baltimore was a middle-of-the-pack rushing defense last year, but the volume McCoy will get in what was 2015’s most run-heavy offense (49.5 percent of total plays) is enticing, even on the road as a slight underdog. McCoy has a projected ceiling of 17.3 FD points this week and boasts a 99 percent Bargain Rating there.
On Friday, the NFL suspended Bills starting right tackle Seantrel Henderson for four games. He should return in Week 5. In the meantime, McCoy will be without one of the core guys paid to make him look good.
RB – Mike Gillislee
McCoy is locked in as the early-down and goal-line back for the Bills offense. Gillislee is projected to score just 3.2 FD points on Sunday and has one of the lowest floors in the slate.
WR – Sammy Watkins
Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman uses play-action to set up the deep ball, and Watkins will often be the beneficiary of that. Buffalo was fifth in the NFL in deep attempt percentage (23.5 percent) last season and Watkins led all receivers in yards per target (10.9) and tied with Allen Robinson in yards per catch (17.5). Further, Watkins had the highest catch rate (62.5 percent) among receivers who averaged at least 16 yards per catch.
Watkins caught a touchdown every 10.7 targets last year and Baltimore allows touchdowns to wide receivers at a higher rate (once every 13 targets) than any team but the Saints (once every 11 targets). Watkins will line up against Jimmy Smith, PFF’s 76th-ranked corner. The Ravens play with one safety in the box, which means that the corners are often left alone on the outside — advantage: Watkins. Watkins is a great tournament play this week because of his big-play ability and projected ownership of just five to eight percent on FanDuel. Via the Trends tool, over the final nine games of the season only Doug Baldwin and Antonio Brown exceeded their salary-based expectations more.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods failed to top 50 yards in 78.57 percent of his games last year and did not step up when Watkins missed three games last year (aside from a fluky Week 7 outburst). Unfortunately for Woods, Greg Roman’s scheme isn’t kind to a team’s WR2; the Bills were 31st in the NFL in pass attempts in 2015.
WR – Greg Salas
Salas returns kicks but will not be a useful option in DFS barring an injury. He should not be on your radar this week against the Ravens.
TE – Charles Clay
In his final two seasons in Miami, Clay was targeted in the red zone a total of 35 times. Last season, however, he saw just three RZ targets on a 9.1 percent RZ target market share. Baltimore is a tough matchup for tight ends: They gave up just three touchdowns to tight ends all season in 2015.
Baltimore Ravens
Writer: Zach Rabinovitz
QB – Joe Flacco
Flacco’s projected ceiling-to-floor split makes him much more intriguing in tournaments in Week 1 than cash games. Flacco has a top-12 ceiling on DraftKings (14th on FanDuel), but his floor is among the lowest of the week at 5.3 DK points. Despite posting a below-average AYA of 5.66 (worse than Blaine Gabbert‘s, for reference) Flacco maintained average play in 2015. Under offensive coordinator Marc Trestman’s leadership, the Ravens led the league in passing attempts last year. Flacco should maintain his 35 attempts-per-game pace in 2016, although he likely won’t be efficient.
RB – Justin Forsett/Terrance West/Javorius Allen
The three-headed committee of Forsett, Allen, and West is one of the least-desirable backfields of the slate. While Trestman turned Matt Forte into a PPR monster in 2013-2014, the uncertainty about their split makes each of these backs a clear fade at their respective prices.
The presumptive starter coming into the year, Forsett was not on an NFL roster a week ago and has a lower red-zone success rate than Allen’s.
West posted a poor rushing success rate of 38.7 percent in 2015 – eight points below Forsett’s and nine points lower than Allen’s.
Allen became the lead back following Forsett’s broken arm last year and immediately posted the receiving lines we’ve come to expect from running backs under Trestman. In the final six weeks, Allen was on pace for nearly 100 receptions and 800 yards. Using the RotoViz Screener App, we see Allen’s rookie production place him in elite historical company. If the Ravens continue their pass-happy attack, Allen may be worth a GPP flier — but perhaps wait a week to get clarity on the split between these three.
WR – Steve Smith
In Smith’s age-36 season he was targeted on a league-high 32 percent of his routes and was graded as the eighth-best wide receiver, per Pro Football Focus. While playing only six games last year, Smith showed his weekly upside by scoring 28.0 and 46.6 DK points in back-to-back weeks. The Bills’ elite starting corners look like a difficult matchup on paper, but at near zero percent ownership Smith should still be on people’s GPP radars.
WR – Kamar Aiken
In the eight games following Smith’s Achilles injury, Aiken had as many targets as Odell Beckham and Allen Robinson: 83. Unfortunately, Aiken’s splits with and without Steve Smith look disappointing.
The weakness of the Bills’ pass defense is at the nickel position, where Nickell Robey ranked as the 87th-‘best’ defensive back in the league in 2015. At 6’2” Aiken is not the classic slot receiver but could easily see time there if the Ravens go with three-wide sets. Aiken’s DK Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7 is one of the best marks of the week.
WR – Mike Wallace
Wallace comes into this game with a projection of 6.8 FD points and is the only receiver on the Ravens with a positive Projected Plus/Minus. Wallace is expected to maintain his role as a pure outside receiver and will likely face Gilmore in three-WR sets.
TE – Crockett Gillmore
Gillmore quietly posted the second-highest AYA on the Ravens last year:
While his +0.6 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Bills isn’t ideal, sharpfootballanalysis.com has the short middle of the field as a place to exploit.
