Week 1: Tight Ends
We’re talking about tight ends. Nothing really changes from month to month unless Rob Gronkowski gets injured or Ladarius Green has a headache. Everything is basically the same now as it was when salaries were released a month ago.
Let’s get into it.
To Gronk or Not to Gronk
Not to Gronk.
It wasn’t a great spot for him anyway.
The Non-Gronk Plays
With Gronk unavailable, there are a few tight ends you’re bound to consider:
• Jordan Reed (Redskins)
• Greg Olsen (Panthers)
• Coby Fleener (Saints)
• Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
• Delanie Walker (Titans)
• Dwayne Allen (Colts)
Let’s get through ’em.
The Chalk
Reed is the chalk. He is so integral to his offense that the team is considering changing its name to the “Reedskins.” Last season, he actually outproduced Gronk on a points-per-game basis. He frequently hit his Upside (2x expected points). He was a beast.
But this year he’s more expensive than he was last year. He doesn’t have nearly the same margin for error that he had when he was cheaper. What he does have, though, is a good history with quarterback Kirk Cousins (per the RotoViz Game Splits App):
Compare that to . . .
Reed with Cousins has basically been Gronk with Brady. Unlike Gronk, Reed will actually have his starting quarterback in Week 1 — and he’s cheaper. If you are going to pay up for a tight end, you should strongly consider Reed. Of course, we’re projecting him (in our Player Models) to be highly-owned.
Thanks, But No?
Last year, Denver ranked No. 1 in total defense and in pass defense, per Football Outsider’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. If I’m going to pay a top-three positional salary for a guy, I prefer for him not to face the team that held him to four catches and 41 yards in the Super Bowl. If you are going to play Olsen, DK looks like the place to do it. At $5,100, he has a 96 percent Bargain Rating.
Be Breezy
Throughout his entire career — even going back to his San Diego days with time-fighter Antonio Gates — Saints quarterback Drew Brees has relied on his tight end and consistently infused the position with DFS value.
In Week 1, new acquisition Coby Fleener is $5,400 on FD. He is tied for the 13th-highest salary at the position. The Saints are at home and implied to score 26 points against the Raiders, who last year allowed 96 receptions, 1,290 yards, and 11 touchdowns to tight ends. Those marks respectively were third-, second-, and second-worst on the season. He has the highest FD Bargain Rating at the position.
Another Good Spot
Kelce’s Chiefs are seven-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against a Chargers team with a defense that last year ranked 31st against tight ends in DVOA. The Chargers allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends last year. He’s palatable at $5,000 on DK and $6,400 on FD. At the same time . . . he’s not Reed or Fleener.
Yes, But Is He a Skywalker?
Delanie is the primary receiving weapon on a Titans offense that lacks established receivers. Facing a Vikings defense that last year was 25th in defending tight ends (per DVOA), Delanie is likely to be one of the more popular players on both sites. On DK, in particular, he’s likely to be chalky, as he presents great value at only $4,500. He leads the position with 11 DK Pro Trends.
The One Who Stayed
While Fleener left Indy, Dwayne Allen stayed. Good decision. The Colts are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 27.5 points against a Detroit team with a defense that last season ranked 29th against tight ends in DVOA.
In 2014, Allen led the Colts in touchdowns receiving with eight in 13 games. For his career, he has converted 8.8 percent of his 147 targets into touchdowns — an excellent conversion rate — and inside the 10-yard line he is a total beast, converting 14 career targets into 10 receptions, 45 yards, and nine touchdowns.
Last year, the Lions gave up 12 touchdowns to opposing tight ends — the most in the league.
At $3,200, he represents better value on DK, where he’s priced right below Will Tye ($3,300) and above Richard Rodgers ($3,100).
The Cheap Guys
Clive Walford: Last year, the Saints were the worst team in the league against opposing tight ends . . . by almost any metric.
Crockett Gillmore: Quarterback Joe Flacco can’t throw the ball to a running back on every play, can he?
Jared Cook: Because deep down you like pain.
Virgil Green: He’s no longer green, and he no longer has any competition.
Vance McDonald: He has an outside shot of leading the team in receptions.
