Week 1: Running Backs
It took about a month for World War I to go from the mere assassination of a guy whose name I don’t remember to a full-blown war the aftermath of which would lead to another, bigger war.
Actually, I don’t know for a fact that the Great War took only a month to materialize — it kind of doesn’t matter for the purposes of this article (or for the purposes of anything, at this point) — but the point that I’m trying to make is this: A month is a long time. A lot can happen in a month.
Also, I just visited Wikipedia . . .
• 28 June 1914: The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand
• 28 July 1914: Austria-Hungary declares war on someone.
One month to the day. As sad as it is to say, that’s going to be the best call I have in this entire piece.
FanDuel and DraftKings released Week 1 salaries about a month ago. A lot has changed in the running back landscape since then. Fortunately, only a few have been assassinated.
Don’t Call Him ‘Spence’
Chiefs starter Jamaal Charles might not be starting (or even available and/or needed to play) in Week 1. The Chiefs are currently seven-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Chargers. Spencer Ware has been working as the lead back for all of the preseason. A big-bodied grinder, Ware saw action with the Chiefs only after Charles tore his ACL last season, and for much of 2015 he was partnered with Charcandrick West, serving as the goal-line and short-yardage back.
In three games, Ware served as the lead back, earning at least 10 carries in each game. The sample is of course small, but the results are impressive (per RotoViz’s Game Splits App):
One of those three games — his Week 11 two-touchdown smackdown — was against the Chargers, who last year ranked 31st against the run per Football Outsider’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
This game looks like the type in which the lead back for the Chiefs will have positive game flow, and the Chiefs already like to run the ball anyway. In 2015, they were eighth with their 43.95 percent run rate and third with an obscene 19/20 rushing touchdown/passing touchdown ratio.
A month ago, most people assumed that JC Superstar would be the starting running back in Kansas City in Week 1. Now, most of those people are going to roster Ware for $4,400 on DK and $5,400 on FD, where we’re projecting him to lead the slate in ownership at 26 to 30 and 21 to 25 percent, respectively.
Ware is the eighth-rated running back in the Bales Player Model on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s No. 1.
Ware reportedly might split time with Charcnado in Week 1, but this guy still couldn’t be any chalkier if he were Dick Van Dyke in Mary Poppins.
Potential Pivots?
There are a lot of potential pivots away from Ware. Not all of them are good plays — but that’s why I said “potential.”
• Melvin Gordon III (Chargers)
• Rashad Jennings (Giants)
• Shane Vereen (Giants)
• LeGarrette Blount (Patriots)
• James White (Patriots)
• Jeremy Hill (Bengals)
• Giovani Bernard (Bengals)
• Charles Sims (Buccaneers)
• Theo Riddick (Lions)
• Christine Michael (Seahawks)
• Javorius Allen (Ravens)
Clearly, not all of these guys are potential pivots on every site, but all of them are candidates.
In High School . . .
I once hit a home run in batting practice. That didn’t mean that I could hit home runs in games. MG3’s preseason touchdowns don’t mean sh*t. Still, Gordon is better than he played last season — and he wasn’t actually that bad. Touchdowns are fluky, and on the basis of his draft position, athleticism, rushing average, and receiving capability, MG3 last year looked a lot like first-year Le’Veon Bell . . . except a Le’Veon who fumbled the ball and had to split time with maybe the most underrated back in the league.
His Week 1 situation sucks — the Chargers are seven-point road underdogs to the Chiefs — but MG3’s not expensive ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD) and his ownership is projected to be low. It probably won’t happen in Week 1 . . . but what if he (and not Danny Woodhead) gets the passing game work?
They Might Be Metaphorical Giants
Jennings and Vereen are locked in as the grinder and receiver in this backfield. When the Week 1 lines opened, the Giants were big underdogs on the road, but now their game with the Cowboys is a straight pick ’em. Last year the Cowboys allowed the sixth-most DK and FD points to running backs. If the game stays close, Jennings could get his, as he has over the last two years when he’s gotten at least 12 carries in a game:
If the game doesn’t stay close, Vereen should get a lot of action via the passing game.
Jennings ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD) and Vereen ($3,800 DK, $5,300 FD) are going to be relatively low-owned. They’re in play.
They’re Still the Patriots
In 2008, with the immortal Matt Cassel at quarterback, the Patriots still ran a fast-paced offense. In relief of the injured Dion Lewis last year, White averaged 5.5 targets for 44.75 yards and 0.5 touchdowns receiving per game. And Blount has averaged 11.45 carries for 53.21 yards and 0.48 touchdowns rushing per game in his three years with the Pats.
No one has any idea of how Jimmy Garoppolo will do in Week 1, but Blount ($3,700 DK, $6,000 FD) and White ($3,600 DK, $4,900 FD) shouldn’t be auto-faded just because the Pats are six-point underdogs on the road and going against a top-five Cardinals defense without Tom Brady. Both Blount and White rate very well on DK in the CSURAM88 Model.
On the One Hand . . .
Hill looked good in the preseason. On the other hand, the Bengals are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score fewer than 20 points against a Jets team that last year had the league’s No. 1 run defense (per FO’s DVOA) and allowed the fewest yards and second-fewest touchdowns on the ground. The Jets did, however, allow 76 receptions, 617 yards, and five touchdowns to running backs through the air.
Of the two Cincy backs, Bernard ($4,800 DK, $5,600 FD) seems preferable to Hill ($4,600 DK, $6,500 FD).
Where He Left Off
Last year, Sims ($4,400 DK, $4,700 FD) was a pass-catching savant for the Bucs, hauling in 51 receptions (and adding 107 rushes) for a total of 1,090 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns. The Bucs are three-point road underdogs implied to score 22.25 points against the Falcons, who last year had the worst pass defense in the league against running backs (per FO’s DVOA). In a situation that sets up incredibly well for him, Sims could start 2016 right where 2015 left off.
The Slot Running Back
Riddick is basically a slot receiver who plays running back. Last year he led the position with 80 receptions and is in an ideal spot this week: The Lions are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score 24 points against a Colts team sporting a slate-high 27.5-point total. This game should be a shootout, the Lions should be throwing a lot to keep up, and so Riddick should see a lot of snaps. In Week 1, Riddick ($4,000 DK, $5,100 FD) is basically another version of Sims.
Speak of the Devil . . .
The Seahawks are 10-point home favorites implied to score 27 points against a Dolphins team that last year allowed the most fantasy points in the league to opposing running backs. Thomas Rawls isn’t listed on the injury report, but he’s returning from injury and won’t be needed to carry the ball all that much in this game. Listed ahead of Rawls on the team’s initial depth chart, Michael ($3,700 DK, $4,800 FD) looks like a dirt-cheap play with major upside.
The Runner Formerly Known as ‘Least Mode’ might just be another version of Spence.
The Sith Lord
Not only does he have a first name that makes him sound like a character from the Star Wars prequels and a nickname that makes him sound like a bouncer at an Alabama strip club, but Allen has major game. He looks like the established receiving back for an offensive coordinator who likes to throw the ball. From the minute that Forsett suffered an injury last season, Javorius was a stud, specifically in points-per-reception scoring (per our Trends tool):
He was downright David Johnson-esque. Of course, the real question is how many opportunities he’ll get in what could be a committee with Terrance West and the prodigal Justin Forsett — about whom there’s a lot more to be said.
The Pro Trends
Our NFL Pro Trends are . . . trends that our NFL Pros have made . . . using our Trends tool. They’ve been designated as ‘Pro Trends’ because they historically add value to a player’s profile and are worth keeping in mind.
DraftKings
On DK, the two runners with the most Pro Trends are Latavius Murray (nine) and Mark Ingram (eight). Competing against each other in the Raiders-Saints game in New Orleans, both players should benefit from what is likely to be a fast-paced shootout that has the slate’s second-highest total (51). Both guys are larger workhorse runners who can catch the ball, and neither Ingram ($6,600) nor Murray ($5,600) is expensive. They are, however, pretty chalky, especially Latavius, whom we project to be owned around 17 to 20 percent.
FanDuel
Lamar Miller leads the slate with 10, and Todd Gurley and David Johnson are tied with nine. All three are projected to be owned at least 13 percent. All are priced within the top 10. All are on favorites implied to win by an average of 4.67 points. All of them should have the chance to eclipse 20 touches. All three have a chance to finish Week 1 as the RB1.
But, again, with top-10 salaries, Miller ($7,600), Johnson ($8,800), and Gurley ($8,900) might not be guys you actually want in your lineups this week.
In Absentia
I told a lie. It was a sin of omission, I think. JC Superstar currently is tied for the high in DK Pro Trends with 10, and he has the most FD Pro Trends outright with a stupefying 14.
That‘s how good Ware’s spot is this week.
The Ex-Girlfriend Girlfriend
I knew a guy in college who would try to “get hand” Costanza-style by preemptively breaking up with his girlfriends, just so that he could ‘prove’ to them that they were replaceable. A week later, he’d be back with them. The girls would be thrilled that he took them back.
I’m about 82 percent sure that he’s living with his mom right now. Anyway . . .
That’s basically what the Ravens did to Forsett last week. I’m sure that there are plenty of justifiable ‘roster reasons’ for why they treated him like a yo-yo for a couple of days, but the fact is that they gave 31 teams the chance to claim him — and none of them wanted him! What does that say about him? And what does that suggest about the Ravens?
There are sooo many things to say . . . but I won’t.
Recently, Forsett said that he’s still the starter. Great for him that he thinks that, but . . .
- I’d rather know what the coaches think of him, since they’re still the ones who actually decides who starts.
- Julius Jones started every game for the Cowboys in 2007, but he’s not the guy in his backfield who had a 1,200-12 season and an invitation to the Pro Bowl, know what I mean?
What happens with Forsett could swing tournaments this week. On FanDuel, he has the 13th-highest salary at the position even though last year he was 26th among running backs in points per game. On DraftKings, he’s 34th in pricing but in 2015 was 22nd in points per game.
There are huge pricing disparities on both sites, and on DraftKings in particular Forsett could be a Black Swan in guaranteed prize pools. He leads the position with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. We’re projecting him to have between zero and one percent ownership. He’s ostensibly still the lead back on a team that’s a three-point favorite at home. Just 20 months ago, he was finishing up a breakout campaign in which he was eighth in DK points per game. The last time we saw him play, he was still the Ravens lead back.
He’s not an efficient receiver, but he’s still a guy who can catch the ball (with 75 receptions in his last 26 games), and his offensive coordinator (Marc Trestman) likes to throw the ball to running backs.
The Ravens move at a fast pace — they ran the fourth-most plays in the league last year — and Forsett will be going against a Bills defense that (per FO’s DVOA) ranked 30th against the run and 29th in pass defense against running backs last year.
If you think that there’s more than a one percent chance that the Ravens actually intend to use Forsett as a lead back this week, then you should probably ownership arbitrage his situation by mass entering tournaments via our Lineup Builder with an exposure that you think adequately leverages the spread between his ownership and the odds that he’s the lead back.
Over the last two seasons, Forsett has flat-out balled out when priced between $4,100 and $5,100 on DK:
In those games, he has almost averaged the FantasyLabs definition of Upside (2x expected points).
You don’t have to play him if you don’t like him, but more than just one percent of the field should probably play him in DK GPPs — and maybe FD GPPs too.
You never know.
