At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Week series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
NFL Trend of the Week
If ever there’s a time of the NFL season for Vegas to be wrong, it’s probably the first month, right? Even though we think that we know a lot right now, so much is unknown. By the middle of the season, we’ll have so much more information that is solid. Right now, though, everyone is operating under assumptions that we hope are right.
Let’s test some of these assumptions.
In Week 1, six of the best quarterbacks in the NFL — Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees — are on teams implied by Vegas to score between 26.0 and 27.5 points. These are the highest marks in the slate.
Most of us assume that quarterbacks in comparable situations tend to provide DFS value. Let’s find out if they actually do. And let’s specifically focus on the first month of the season.
Step 1: Projections > Proj Pts > 2 to 27.5
In screening for quarterbacks projected to score at least two points, we are essentially eliminating backups from the cohort. So this +2.14 Plus/Minus is our DraftKings baseline.
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Team Score > 25.5 to 28.0
In general, targeting quarterbacks with high Vegas totals adds value and Consistency. Note, however, that the ownership percentage of the cohort also increases.
What happens if we screen for only the first four games of the season?
Step 3: Time Filters > Game Number > 1 to 4
Well, that‘s surprising, right? Of course, that’s also why we should use the Trends tool — to test our assumptions.
It turns out that Vegas (as represented in the marketplace of DFS) is in fact ‘wrong’ earlier in the season: At the beginning of the season, Vegas undervalues quarterback production even more than it does later in the season. (In case you were wondering, this general trend also applies on FanDuel.)
Takeaway
There might be reasons not to roster the six Vegas stud quarterbacks in Week 1 — but that they’re on teams with high Vegas totals probably shouldn’t be one of them.
In fact, these quarterbacks could be ideal plays for guaranteed prize pools. Look at the trend again. Compare the differences between Steps 2 and 3.
- More actual points
- Higher Plus/Minus
- Lower Consistency
- Lower ownership percentage
More points, more value, more volatility, more leverage — more money???
Bonus
I have no idea if this is relevant — it very well might not be — but aren’t you at least curious?
How have these six quarterbacks done previously early in the season when their teams have been implied comparably?
Just sayin’ . . .
