Stacking is all the rage in daily fantasy football. The reason is because player outcomes are correlated; when a quarterback throws a touchdown to his wide receiver and you have both players on your roster, you get points for both ends of the touchdown. Because identifying high-upside stacks is so important for GPPs, we created a new NFL Stacking tool.
Here are some notable stacks for Week 1.
Stacks on Stacks on Stacks
Quarterback – Wide Receiver
Using the Bales Model for DraftKings, we see that the top QB-WR stack includes Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott. Dak is the highest-rated quarterback in the model and despite being a fourth-round pick he became a fantasy ‘must-play’ following the Tony Romo retirement injury. The Dak-Dez Bryant stack will be one of the higher-owned QB-WR stacks in Week 1. However, because of Dak’s high model rating and Terrance Williams‘ low price ($3,300), those two combine for the highest-rated QB-WR stack currently.
The Saints-Raiders game has the second-highest total on the slate and both teams have implied team totals of at least 25 points. In the last two years there have been over 1,100 unique quarterback weeks and only 37 of those have had matchups in which both teams had an implied team total of at least 25 points.
Drew Brees accounts for seven of those games and currently boasts the highest-projected ceiling among QBs in Week 1. Here’s how he performed in that historical sample . . .
The top-rated Saints QB-WR stack is of Brees and Willie Snead, but a Brees-Brandin Cooks or even a Brees-Michael Thomas stack will sure to be popular this week.
Quarterback – Wide Receiver – Wide Receiver
Although the Browns have the second-lowest implied team total currently at 18.5, they might have sneaky upside this week against an Eagles team that ranked 26th in total defense last year, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. What makes this three-man combination so intriguing is the combined price: The total stack costs only $13,700 yet includes a quarterback in Robert Griffin III who boasts the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and is the second-highest rated QB in the Adam Levitan Model.
Running Back – Wide Receiver
Interestingly, the top RB-WR stacks per the Bales Model actually have higher overall ratings than the top QB-WR stacks this week. Here are the top-three stacks currently:
Stack 1: Devonta Freeman–Julio Jones (Model Rating: 143.2)
Stack 2: Mark Ingram–Willie Snead (Model Rating: 140.9)
Stack 3: Theo Riddick–Marvin Jones (Model Rating: 139.3)
Of note, the third stack is $7,700 cheaper in total salary than the first.
Wide Receiver – Tight End
Pairing a wide receiver and tight end from the same team could be an interesting contrarian pivot from a double-WR stack. Sorting by Projected Plus/Minus this time, here are the top-two rated stacks.
Stack 1: Rishard Matthews–Delanie Walker (Projected Plus/Minus: +8.7)
Stack 2: Tajae Sharpe–Delanie Walker (Projected Plus/Minus: +8.3)
The common link of course is Walker, who is currently the highest-rated TE in the Bales Model and leads the slate with 11 DK Pro Trends. He faces a Minnesota team that ranked 11th in pass defense per Football Outsiders but allowed 2.1 points over salary-based expectations to TEs last year.
Conclusion
These are just a few notable stacks for Week 1; our Stacking tool allows you to sort not only by Model rating and Projected Plus/Minus but also by projected fantasy points and total Pro Trends.
Good luck in Week 1!
