The 2016 BMW Championship
With the Deutsche Bank Championship behind us, the FedEx Cup Playoffs has narrowed its field to 70 remaining golfers. Those 70 will travel to Carmel, IN, for the BMW Championship, which is being held at Crooked Stick GC for the first time since 2012, thus eliminating course history from any analysis this week. Crooked Stick GC is a Par-72 course that plays over 7,500 yards. Distance should play a role in tackling some of the longer holes, as well as the four Par-5s, which played as the four easiest holes in 2012.
The biggest wrinkle in this week’s event is that there will be no cut, allowing all players in the field four rounds of play barring a withdrawal. The absence of a cut brings a lot of players who otherwise would be considered too risky into both cash game and tournament consideration. The two statistics that I will be placing a heavy emphasis on are Recent Greens in Regulation (GIR) and Long-Term Adjusted Birdies per Tournament (LT Adj Birdies). Also note that there is currently a heavy chance of rain on Friday and some high winds throughout the tournament. Be sure to monitor the forecast as closely to lineup lock as possible.
$9,000 – $11,900
Long-Term Adj Birdies: 16.6, Jason Day ($11,600)
Day got himself in trouble by spraying his driver a few times last week, but he still managed 16 birdies and two eagles and played the Par-5s at five-under par on his way to 88 DraftKings points. His 309.3-yard average LT Driving Distance (DD) is among the highest in the field, and he ranks first in LT Adjusted Round Score (67.6). Despite finding the fairway with only 47 percent of his drives, he also ranks second in the field with a 76.4 percent GIR through his last three events. There is also the slight chance that Day comes in at a lower ownership in low-stakes tournaments, as Rory McIlroy ($11,900) could end up being the more popular option due to his win last week and victory at this event in 2012.
Recent Greens in Regulation: 75.9 percent, Adam Scott ($10,200)
Day also leads players above $9,000 in this metric, but Scott comes in at a close second. Scott has been tearing up the FedEx Cup Playoffs — notching back-to-back fourth-place finishes in the first two events. His last three events have resulted in an average of 30.1 putts per round (PPR), but he did find a way to finish 24th in strokes gained putting last week. His Recent Adj Round Score of 67.1 is the second-best in the field (trailing only Jason Day’s mark), and his LT DD of 306.5 yards is more than enough to navigate Crooked Stick GC. The only knock against Scott (ignoring his putting) is that he could carry high ownership. If that is a worry of yours, you could pivot to Jordan Spieth, who is $300 more expensive and coming off of a poor performance at last week’s event, but I wouldn’t consider Jordan anywhere outside of a GPP.
$7,000 – $8,900
Long-Term Adj Birdies: 15.2, Bubba Watson ($8,600)
Watson missed his first cut of the year last week, but cut-making won’t be an issue at the BMW Championship. The last time this event was held at Crooked Stick GC, Bubba lead the field in DD, made 17 birdies and one eagle, and he finished with a score of 12-under par. His play last week is concerning, especially the final-round 72 in which he failed to make a single birdie. However, he still hit 72 percent of his greens during that round, failing to score due to his average of 2.0 putts per GIR. There is no way to tell for certain if his poor round was a sign of bad form or simply an outlier, but I think it is still reasonable to expect some birdies out of Bubba with four guaranteed rounds of play.
Recent Greens In Regulation: 78.5 percent, Paul Casey ($8,300)
Casey almost held on for a victory at last week’s DB Championship, but there is little anyone can do when Rory catches a hot putter. Casey’s flat iron failed him in the fourth round last week, but his 30.1 LT PPR average should make that less surprising (even if it didn’t make it any less tilting). There is no way to ignore how well he is striking the ball recently; his GIR percentage through his last four events is the highest in the field and has resulted in 15 Adj Birdies during that time. He could be popular coming into this event fresh off of a second-place finish, but a Recent Adj Round Score of 67.6 might be worth eating some chalk for at only $8,300.
Side note: Casey randomly tossed my friends and me some candy during the third round last week. I’m not entirely sure why, but I suppose I just look like a guy who enjoys candy. I appreciate the candy, Paul, but would have far more appreciated some fourth-round birdies.
$6,100 – $6,900
Long-Term Adj Birdies: 14.5, Kevin Na ($6,800)
Na decided not to play last week after the birth of his first child but is expected to participate in this week’s event. His LT DD of only 280 yards is among the worst in the field, but he makes his birdies through a stellar LT PPR average of 28.7. This course doesn’t set up well for Na and his lack of distance, but Jim Furyk‘s ninth-place finish here when ranking third-to-last in DD shows that there are other ways to attack the course. Another thing going against Na would be that his PPR average has increased to 30.4 through his last four events. He leads all players in this range of salaries with a Recent GIR of 76 percent, but his lack of distance and cold putter are solid reasons to limit exposure in tournaments.
Recent Greens in Regulation: 74.5 percent, Ryan Palmer ($6,800).
Aside from Na’s mark, Palmer’s 74.5 percent Recent GIR is the highest among players priced below $7,000. There is a lot to love about Palmer, including his 13.8 LT Adj Birdies, 304.7-yard LT DD and 69.4 LT Adj Round Score. He has managed to bring his Adj Round Score to 68.1 through his last three events while increasing his Adj Birdies to 16.3. His 78 percent Consistency and 43 percent Upside on the year speak to both his cash-game and tournament viability. He could be a popular choice among tournament players this week after his 82 fantasy-point performance last week, but at only $6,800 he still leaves plenty of room to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
Rory’s Coming.
There is nothing quite like watching McIlroy charge up the leaderboard over the weekend. He is one of the more enjoyable players to watch when he isn’t missing three-foot putts, especially when he is hitting shots like this:
Enjoy, and good luck this weekend.
