The Texans open the 2016 season as 5.5-point favorites over the visiting Bears. The Texans are currently implied to score 24.75 points, a top-10 total in Week 1. The Bears are implied to score just 19.25 points, the fifth-lowest total in Week 1. Sunday will be a beautiful day in Chicago with sunny skies and just a 10 percent chance of rain.
Chicago Bears
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Jay Cutler
Despite having the league’s 23rd-ranked scoring offense in 2015, the Bears had their fair share of explosive plays through the air. Led by Cutler, the Bears finished the year eighth in average explosive play (20 or more yards) pass rate and face a Houston defense in Week 1 that was 22nd in average explosive play pass rate allowed in 2015. Cutler had the league’s 11th-highest yards-per-attempt average in 2015 with only nine games of Alshon Jeffery. Despite this potential for big plays, Cutler currently carries our fifth-lowest projected floor among starting quarterbacks, per our Player Models. The Texans were great against quarterbacks in 2015, ranking among the top-eight defenses in Plus/Minus allowed to the position.
RB – Jeremy Langford
Langford’s fantasy success in 2015 was a bit deceiving. Five of his six rushing touchdowns came on six rush attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line. Additionally, he totaled 42 targets, but his 52.4 percent catch rate was dead last among the 63 running backs to have at least 20 catches. During Langford’s hot four-game stretch that saw him score five touchdowns, he failed to average over four yards per carry even once.
He is the undisputed lead back: He was on the field for 51 of 57 first-team snaps during the Bears’ first three preseason games before sitting out the last game. Langford’s five to eight percent projected ownership on FanDuel is higher than most similarly-priced backs and he will face a Houston defense (which is expected to have J.J. Watt on the field) that finished 10th in running back fantasy points allowed per game in 2015.
RB – Ka’Deem Carey
Carey’s two-year career has resulted in four yards per carry on 79 career rushes and a long rush of just 15 yards. As Carey’s horrible 99.6 SPARQ-x score indicates, he is nothing more than a low-upside change-of-pace back. He’s unlikely to be meaningfully involved in the Bears’ offense Week 1.
WR – Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery played in just nine games during the 2015 season. When he was on the field, he excelled, finishing the year as the 10th receiver in DraftKings points per game while posting a strong Plus/Minus of +3.92 on the season:
He scored just four touchdowns, but this can be partially attributed to a lack of opportunity: Jeffery had just three targets inside the 10-yard line in 2015, a far cry from his 16 and 11 targets in 2014 and 2013. His red-zone volume should increase in 2016, as his 19.2 percent Hog Rate (targets per snap) ranked third among all wide receivers, which shows just how big a part of the passing game he is. Jeffery is $7,500 on FanDuel and has a 99 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Kevin White
White is a tantalizing player with an incredible SPARQ-x score of 135.1 — 99th percentile among all wide receivers — but that potential has yet to be converted into NFL production. He had just nine yards on two receptions until the fourth week of the preseason and could have a larger learning curve than expected due to his limited route-running. White’s projected ownership of zero to one percent on DraftKings is lower than similarly-priced receivers John Brown and Corey Coleman. Houston cornerback Johnathan Joseph (PFF’s fifth-highest rated corner in Week 1) is part of a defense that finished in the top-five in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers in 2015.
White (hamstring) is questionable for Week 1 but expected to play.
WR – Eddie Royal
Royal averaged just 34 receiving yards in his six games with five or more targets in 2015. His 6.43 yards-per-reception average was the single-worst rate among any wide receiver with 50 or more targets. Having averaged two fewer targets with Jeffery on the field in 2015, Royal’s involvement in the Bears offense should be even more ineffective with White now in the fold.
TE – Zach Miller
Houston’s defense not only shut down wide receivers in 2015 but also tight ends: They finished as the fifth-best defense in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position. Miller did post an impressive Plus/Minus of +7.67 on DraftKings during his final eight games of 2015:
Still, he has just 79 career receptions and thrived last year in large part due to a lack of options elsewhere in the offense. Miller is currently rated outside the top-20 tight ends in our Tournament Player Model.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler led the Broncos to a 5-2 record in his seven starts in 2015, but that is slightly misleading in terms of what he really brought to the offense:
Remember, Osweiler was throwing the ball to two very capable receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and while DeAndre Hopkins is likely happy to have some consistency under center Osweiler’s average DraftKings production in 2015 was lower than ex-Texans quarterback Brian Hoyer. However, Osweiler did throw for at least 296 passing yards in three of his final four starts with the Broncos, perhaps indicating better performances are yet to come. The Bears finished 2015 with the third-worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks.
RB – Lamar Miller
There is a lot of hype surrounding Miller in 2016. The Bears finished 2015 with a bottom-12 defense in average fantasy points allowed to running backs. Chicago has since fortified the interior of their defense with linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan, PFF’s fourth- and 10th-highest rated linebackers in 2015, respectively. This pair should help against Houston’s inside run game, but there could be issues on the right side. Opponents averaged between 3.6 and 4.3 yards per rush from the left end to the right guard against the Bears in 2015 (per sharpfootballstats.com) but struggled against runs off of the right tackle and right end, allowing averages of 5.3 and 5.6 yards per rush, respectively.
Both Miller in Miami and the Houston running backs last year were most successful (over 5.0 yards per carry) running the football over right tackle in 2015, and this potential hole in the Bears defense may have gotten a lot wider with the loss of outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, who was recently placed on the PUP list. Miller currently has the third-highest ceiling among all running backs.
RB – Alfred Blue
Blue’s 3.48 career yards-per-carry rate is very, very bad. Over the last 20 years, only 10 other running backs to rush as often as he has have been more inefficient. As long as Miller can suit up, Blue will not be a fantasy option.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
All three Bears cornerbacks — Kyle Fuller (knee), Tracy Porter (concussion), and Bryce Callahan (hamstring) — are at risk of missing Week 1. Put simply: Hopkins has an opportunity to ball out. While he will need to develop chemistry with his new quarterback, it’s important to note that 17.1 percent of Hopkins’ targets in 2015 missed him completely. Osweiler was off-target on just nine percent of his throws last year, slightly better than the 11.2 percent league average. Hopkins is used to performing at a high level with new quarterbacks, finishing 2015 as the league’s fifth-best receiver in DraftKings points per game despite catching passes from a mix of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden. Priced at $8,800 on DraftKings, his 13.5-point projected floor is the third-highest among all wide receivers.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller was college football’s best deep threat in 2015, converting 27 percent of his catches into gains of 25-plus yards as a junior. These types of chunk plays will be welcomed in a Texans offense that last season was just 29th in the NFL in big plays (runs of 10 or more yards and passes of 25 or more yards). Fuller has wasted little time establishing himself in the NFL, totaling 144 receiving yards on just eight receptions this preseason. The Bears finished 2015 allowing the eighth-highest average explosive pass rate.
Fuller (hamstring) was limited in practice later in the week, but head coach Bill O’Brien and Fuller himself both say that he should ready to start in Week 1.
WR – Braxton Miller
Not expected to start this early in his career, Miller has handled the transition from quarterback to wide receiver better than anyone could have imagined. He tied for the team lead with 10 receptions in the preseason, although he averaged just 9.7 yards per catch. The Texans ran the fifth-most run plays in the league in 2015 and this uncertainty in passing snaps makes Miller a very risky play with a low floor.
TE – Ryan Griffin
In Osweiler’s seven 2015 starts, he targeted Broncos tight end Owen Daniels just over four times per game. Daniels did account for three touchdowns in those games, but the target numbers are concerning nonetheless. In nine games played last year, Griffin had just 20 receptions for 251 yards and two touchdowns. At 6’6″ and 261 lbs., he has the ability to be a red-zone option in the NFL. In limited but effective red-zone work, Griffin has turned five targets over the last two seasons into four receptions and three touchdowns. He holds one of the lowest floors of any starting tight end in Week 1 and will likely see a good amount of Trevathan, PFF’s 13th-highest rated cover linebacker in 2015.
