Saturday brings us four day games starting at 2:20pm ET and an 11-game main slate at 7:05pm ET.
Pitchers
The Dodgers’ Rich Hill was scratched for his last scheduled start due to a recurring blister issue, which is about the only reason he may not be the sure-fire chalk option today on FanDuel. He faces the Padres, who are currently implied by Vegas for 2.8 runs and whose projected lineup owns the third-lowest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate at .284. Hill ranks fourth with a K Prediction of 7.0, behind some pitchers we’ll discuss in a moment. Further, the Dodgers and Padres have umpire John Hirschbeck behind the plate. He has historically added 2.1 points over expectations for pitchers on FD. Hill is a massive -279 moneyline favorite.
Staying down in the bargain bin for a second: the Pirates’ Ivan Nova faces the Brewers, who are currently implied for 3.6 runs. Nova has been in great form lately, with a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last 10 starts. His advanced stats recently are solid, too: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 185 feet, a hard-hit rate of 30 percent, and has induced ground balls at a 65 percent rate. The Brewers strike out at the highest rate of any team today (.319 SO/AB), which is why Nova’s 7.0 K Prediction is tied with Hill’s for fourth-best. He’s only $7,300 on FD.
Now let’s talk about a couple of aces today. Jake Arrieta faces the Giants, who are currently implied for 3.3 runs. He has been very awful lately, especially compared to his best-pitcher-in-MLB expectations:
Last game was particularly bad: He allowed six earned runs and struck out only three batters in 6.0 innings pitched. However, his advanced stats suggest progression is coming: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 165 feet, an exit velocity of 85 MPH, a line-drive rate of nine percent, and a hard-hit rate of 21 percent. Those are elite marks, which is a bit surprising given his poor results. Arrieta’s ownership may be depressed a bit today because of recency bias, which makes him an elite tournament play, especially on DraftKings, where his salary has dropped to $9,200.
Jose Fernandez has a tough matchup today: He faces the Indians, who are currently implied for 3.8 runs and whose projected lineup has the fourth-highest wOBA (.340) today. Fernandez has decent advanced stats lately: He hasallowed a batted-ball distance of 195 feet, an exit velocity of 90 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 27 percent. However, he does have immense upside, as usual: His K Prediction of 9.6 is the highest in the slate and is a full 1.4 strikeouts higher than that of the next pitcher . . .
Madison Bumgarner is on the opposite side of the great Cubs-Giants affair today. The Cubs are currently implied for 3.8 runs and Bumgarner is a +126 dog, a spot he hasn’t found himself in very often. He has been struggling lately and has very average recent advanced stats: He has allowed an exit velocity of 91 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 35 percent in his last two outings. Those are not encouraging stats approaching a matchup versus the Cubs. However, the Cubs do strike out often — they have the fourth-highest SO/AB rate at .272 — and Bum has the second-highest K Prediction of 8.2. Today is a very interesting MLB DFS slate, as there are several aces that could be low-owned due to poor matchups.
Boston’s Rick Porcello faces the Oakland Athletics today. I’ve been on the target-Oakland-e’reday train for a while now, and David Price didn’t disappoint last night: He struck out seven batters in seven innings pitched while allowing only four hits and two runs. Boston won 16-2. Porcello gets them tonight and you could say that he has been in good form recently:
That. You definitely want to target most pitchers versus Oakland, but that is a pitcher you especially want to target versus Oakland right now. His advanced stats have been awesome lately: He has allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 22 percent. Porcello is expensive today — he’s really high on DK at $11,700 and $10,000 on FD — but it’s for very good reason.
Below the expensive guys are some pitchers who are all in similar spots and around $8,000 on FD: Marco Estrada, Kevin Gausman, Vincent Velasquez, and Tanner Roark.
Of those four, Gausman has been in the best recent form: He has allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH, induced ground balls at a 53 percent clip, and seen a 34 percent hard-hit rate. He also boasts the highest K Prediction of the group at 6.6, although Velasquez’s mark of 6.4 isn’t too far behind. Velasquez has the best home-plate umpire in Chad Whitson, who has historically added 1.2 points over expectations for pitchers on FD. Roark and Estrada have the lowest opponent implied run totals at 3.5 and 3.6. These guys are all very close. Choose the stats that are most important to you and adjust from there.
Stacks
The highest-rated five-man stack on DraftKings currently is a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Rockies:
They’re at Coors Field and are currently implied for a ridiculous 7.1 runs. They will be massively owned everywhere tonight.
On FanDuel, several of the top stacks belong to the Rockies and Diamondbacks because of Coors. If we eliminate them, the next-rated four-man stack is a 1-2-3-5 stack of the Dodgers:
They face Padres righty Luis Perdomo, who has the worst WHIP in the slate at 1.753.
Batters
As mentioned above, the Red Sox exploded for 16 runs last night against the A’s. Today they face Daniel Mengden, who owns the third-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.692. Mengden is a righty, which means David Ortiz is an elite play: He has a .435 wOBA, .358 Isolated Power (ISO), and .675 slugging percentage in the last year. Ortiz continues to crush the ball lately: He has averaged an exit velocity of 94 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 56 percent in his last 12 starts. The Red Sox are currently implied for 4.9 runs.
George Springer is projected to bat leadoff for an Astros team currently implied for 4.8 runs. He destroys lefties: He has a .404 wOBA, .260 ISO, and .549 slugging percentage against them in the last year. Right below him in the projected order sits Astros third baseman Alex Bregman, who also boasts awesome power against lefties: He has a .231 ISO in the last year. He has been hitting the ball well lately, too: He has averaged a batted-ball distance of 236 feet and an exit velocity of 91 MPH in his last 12 starts. The Astros are a very intriguing pivot stack from the Coors Field game in tournaments.
Jedd Gyorko has gone hitless in his last two starts but still boasts excellent recent advanced stats: He has averaged a batted-ball distance of 236 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 48 percent in his last 12 outings. He has nice power against fellow righties: He has a .292 ISO and .544 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s only $3,300 on FD and is projected to hit second for a Cardinals team currently implied for 4.9 runs.
Orioles outfielder Steve Pearce is projected to bat second against Yankees lefty CC Sabathia. Pearce has solid splits versus lefties: He has a .363 wOBA, .280 ISO, and .533 slugging percentage in the last year. His advanced stats have been pretty ridiculous lately: He has averaged a batted-ball distance of 269 feet, an exit velocity of 94 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent. He has dual eligibility on DraftKings (1B/2B) and has a slate-high 11 Pro Trends there.
Brian Dozier is on the wrong side of his splits today facing a fellow righty, but they’re still solid: He has a .333 wOBA, .213 ISO, and .463 slugging percentage in the last year. He has been a great GPP guy lately:
His advanced stats are predictably impressive: He has averaged a batted-ball distance of 220 feet, a fly-ball rate of 51 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 40 percent in his last 13 games. He faces James Shields, who has the worst HR/9 mark today at 1.997. Dozier is projected to bat leadoff for a Twins team currently implied for 5.3 runs.
Good luck!
