After having a small four-game slate yesterday, we’re back to a full 15-game day. There’s only one day game at 2:20pm ET, and it’s offered only in the all-day slate on FanDuel. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Noah Syndergaard faces the Nationals, who are currently implied by Vegas for 3.3 runs. This obviously isn’t a perfect matchup for the Mets ace, but he’s been in spectacular form lately: He has averaged 50.7 FanDuel points in his last three starts. His advanced stats match: In his last two games, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 171 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a line-drive rate of eight percent, and a hard-hit rate of 17 percent. Those are all elite marks. Thor also boasts the second-highest K Prediction of the day at 8.0. He’s an elite option if you believe he can rise above the matchup.
Cleveland ace Carlos Carrasco had a disappointing outing last game: He racked up eight strikeouts but made it through only four innings and allowed three earned runs. Today he has a nice matchup against the Marlins, who are currently implied for 3.2 runs. Carrasco’s recent advanced stats suggest he’s OK despite his poor last outing: He has allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a fly-ball rate of 23 percent in his last two games. He’s a massive favorite today at -225, and his 7.4 K Prediction is fourth-best in the slate.
The Dodgers’ Julio Urias is getting the start against the Padres in what might be his last of the year: He’s at 108 innings this season and the Dodgers don’t want to push him too hard early. He’s coming off two excellent outings in which he averaged 49.5 FD points at only a $7,600 average salary. His advanced stats align with his results: He has allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 20 percent in his two starts. The Padres are currently implied for 3.0 runs — the lowest mark today — and their projected lineup has a putrid .298 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). He boasts an 8.8 K Prediction — the highest mark today — which makes him palatable even in cash with the innings cloud hanging over his head.
David Price faces Oakland today. Taking a pitcher against Oakland has been a highly profitable strategy of late:
The A’s are currently implied for 3.4 runs, although surprisingly they’re only +138 dogs right now. Price has hit salary-based expectations in his last four games and has solid advanced stats in his last two: He has allowed an exit velocity of 87 MPH and induced ground balls at a 51 percent clip. His hard-hit rate allowed of 39 percent is a tad concerning, but not so much in this particular matchup. He’s at an interesting price point today: He’s $11,900 on DK and $10,300 on FD. That’s $300 and $400 less than Thor on either site.
The Giants-Cubs matchup is the lone day game, and Jon Lester is a fine option if you’re playing in the FD all-day slate. The Giants are currently implied for 3.3 runs and Lester is a huge -211 favorite. His advanced stats are very average: In the last two, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 209 feet and a hard-hit rate of 33 percent. His K Prediction of 6.7 is fairly average, too. The Vegas data works in his favor, but he’s the same price as Thor on FD at $10,700. He’s probably only a contrarian option in all-day tournaments, if those are your thing.
Jumping down to a cheap guy: Pirates righty Jameson Taillon faces the Brewers, who are currently implied for 3.5 runs. Milwaukee owns the second-highest SO/AB rate today at .293, and Taillon has a very respectable 7.1 K Prediction. His recent form is really solid, too: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 189 feet, induced ground balls at a 58 percent clip, and seen a 26 percent hard-hit rate in his last two starts. Using our Trends tool, we see that pitchers with similar marks at his price point — $8,400 on DK and $7,400 on FD — have historically returned value:
Spot the outlier:
Royals lefty Danny Duffy had a rough outing last game, scoring exactly zero FD points after allowing seven earned runs in only five innings pitched against the Red Sox. Despite that, however, his advanced stats aren’t really that bad: In the last two games — including last game’s disaster, of course — he has allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH and a hard-hit rate of only 27 percent. He was bad last game, but he was probably a tad unlucky. Today he faces the Tigers, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s a nice target in tournaments tonight: He obviously has immense upside, and he could come at a reduced ownership rate given the other high-end options and his poor performance last game.
The last pitcher I’ll mention today is Toronto righty Marcus Stroman. He faces the Rays, who are currently implied for 3.6 runs. His advanced stats are pretty darn impressive lately: He has allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 28 percent and has induced ground balls at a 71 percent rate. He’s a ground-ball pitcher — he has induced them at a 61 percent clip in the last year — but that doesn’t make his recent performance any less impressive. He’s not a typical GPP target — he doesn’t have a ton of K upside, as shown by his 7.52 SO/9 rate — but this looks pretty GPP-y to me:
Stacks
Today is a Coors Field slate, so it’s no surprise that the Rockies — facing the Diamondbacks — own the highest-rated five-man DK stack:
The Rockies are oddly cheap: Ryan Raburn ($3,100), Carlos Gonzalez ($3,500), and Stephen Cardullo ($3,000) are all in the projected lineup and very affordable.
On FanDuel, it’s their opponent who boasts the top-rated four-man stack:
If you want to fade Coors, here’s the next-rated FanDuel stack (the Orioles):
Batters
Nomar Mazara is projected to bat leadoff for a Rangers team currently implied for 4.9 runs. He’s not a huge power guy — he has a .176 Isolated Power (ISO) versus righties — but he can get on base (.347 wOBA) and has been hitting the ball hard lately, as shown by his 43 percent hard-hit rate. And most importantly, he’s cheap: He’s only $4,000 on DK and $3,100 on FD. That’s low for a leadoff hitter on a team implied for almost five runs.
Speaking of cheap leadoff hitters: Cesar Hernandez is only $2,900 on FD and projected to bat first for a Phillies team currently implied for 4.7 runs. His splits aren’t amazing — he has a .318 wOBA, .124 ISO, and .394 slugging percentage — but he has averaged an exit velocity of 92 MPH in his last 10 games. If he can get on base, he also has sneaky stolen base upside, as highlighted by his .102 SB/G mark in the last year.
Let’s keep the leadoff hitter train running and talk about Carlos Santana, who is $3,800 on FD and projected to bat first for an Indians squad currently implied for 4.9 runs. Unlike Mazara and Hernandez, Santana actually has power: He has a .347 wOBA, .238 ISO, and .462 slugging percentage in the last year versus righties. He faces Marlins righty Andrew Cashner, who has the third-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.542.
You want more leadoff hitters? Well, OK! Second baseman Brian Dozier is projected to bat leadoff for a Twins team currently implied for 4.6 runs. He has been hitting the ball very well lately: He has a 218-foot batted-ball distance, 91 MPH exit velocity, and 40 percent hard-hit rate in his last 13 games. Also, if you think Santana has power, look at Dozier’s splits: Against lefties in the last year, he has a .388 wOBA, .326 ISO, and .594 slugging percentage.
Yankees phenom Gary Sanchez has come back down to earth a little bit, but that’s mostly because of his rising price tag:
It has been 10 games since he has gone without a hit. Today he’s projected to bat third for a Yankees team currently implied for 4.3 runs. The sample is small, but his early splits against righties are ridiculous: He has a .564 wOBA, .476 ISO, and .902 slugging percentage. He has been incredibly consistent at a position— catcher — that almost never has Consistency. Despite the Yankees’ average run total, Sanchez should be highly owned yet again today.
Good luck!
