Wednesday brings us a split slate: Eight early games starting at 1:10pm ET and nine in the 7:05pm ET main slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Indians righty Corey Kluber faces the Twins tonight, who are currently implied for 2.9 runs. Because the Indians’ high-powered offense is currently implied for 5.2 runs, they are massive Vegas favorites with a -300 moneyline. Of course I have to create a trend on that. Per our Trends tool, since 2012 (a sample of 23,094 pitchers), there have only been 37 favorites as high as Kluber today:
Although the Plus/Minus and Consistency numbers are very good, the most important number is the sample count. Kluber is in very rare company. He’s also in solid form: According to our advanced data, he has hit value in nine of his last 10 games and has allowed a hard-hit rate of 29 percent in his last three. He’s as cash-y as cash options get.
Detroit righty Justin Verlander faces the White Sox today, who are currently implied for 3.6 runs. He’s coming off a solid outing against the Angels in which he struck out eight batters and allowed only four hits in 7.2 innings of work. However, his advanced stats are a bit concerning: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 224 feet, a fly-ball rate of 57 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 42 percent in his last three starts. Further, because of his duel with Chris Sale, he’s only a small -131 favorite currently. Verlander has been very good this year, but he has been playing with fire lately.
Speaking of Sale: He faces the Tigers, who are currently implied for 4.0 runs. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Sale (a strikeout pitcher), as the Tigers don’t strike out very often: Their .232 SO/AB rate is the fourth-lowest mark in the slate. But Sale has been in awesome form lately: He’s coming off back-to-back 60-point FanDuel outings, the latter of which was a full-game, 14-strikeout gem versus the Mariners. His advanced stats match: He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 28 percent in those two starts. He holds risk because of the matchup and his dog status, but there’s no doubting his immense upside.
If you can forgive David Phelps for his tilting outing last game — he struck out six batters in less than four innings before losing control and getting pulled — he sets up as an awesome, cheap tournament play. The matchup isn’t perfect: He faces the Mets, who are currently implied for 3.9 runs and have a projected Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .307. However, his current K Prediction of 9.1 isn’t just first in the slate — it’s first in the slate by a huge margin: Sale’s mark of 7.0 is second-best. There haven’t been many pitchers historically as cheap as Phelps ($6,700 on FD) with such high K Predictions, but the small few have historically crushed:
Royals righty Ian Kennedy faces the Yankees, who are currently implied for 3.8 runs. After struggling for a bit, he has been awesome in the last three games:
His advanced stats are right in line: In his last two starts, he has allowed an exit velocity of only 86 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 26 percent. His K Prediction of 6.8 isn’t high relative to Phelps’, but it is currently the fourth-best mark in the slate. At his price point — he’s $9,400 on DK and $8,900 on FD — he could possibly be low-owned tonight, as most DFS players could elect either to drop down to Phelps or to pay up for Kluber.
Giants lefty Matt Moore is coming off an absolute gem of a game: Against the Dodgers last Thursday, he struck out seven and only allowed a single hit in 8.2 innings of work. Today he faces the Diamondbacks, who are currently implied for 3.6 runs. He gets them at home — San Francisco has a perfect 100 Park Factor for pitchers — and he has Vic Carapazza behind home plate, an umpire who has historically added 2.4 points over expectations for starting pitchers. Moore’s advanced stats have been solid lately: He has allowed an exit velocity of 89 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 26 percent in his last two starts.
Here’s a trick for MLB DFS:
*Log onto FantasyLabs*
*Check who is pitching against the Athletics*
*Roster that person*
Astros righty Mike Fiers faces the A’s tonight and they’re currently implied for 3.5 runs. Fiers’ advanced stats are solid enough: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 29 percent in his last two starts. He doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside — he has a K Prediction of 5.2 — but this is all about matchup, as the A’s easily have the worst wOBA in the slate at .267. The Astros are heavy -208 favorites.
Cubs righty Jason Hammel faces the Pirates tonight, who are currently implied for 3.1 runs — the second-lowest total behind the Twins’. That is an encouraging mark, although Hammel has been a disaster in his last two games:
In the last 15 days — a three-game sample — Hammel has allowed a batted-ball distance of 237 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent. The Vegas run total suggests that Hammel should be on cash-game radars. Hammel’s recent play and advanced stats certainly do not.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez. He faces the Phillies, who are currently implied for 3.8 runs. The Phillies have the second-worst wOBA at .287. Gio’s recent advanced stats aren’t amazing — he has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 92 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 38 percent — but that’s a three-game sample that includes a start at Coors Field. He has been in better form in the other two and has a nice matchup against the Phillies today. He’s $8,400 on DK and $8,500 on FD.
Stacks
If you can recover from the tilt of the Rockies game being postponed last night, they currently boast the four top five-man DraftKings stacks. Here’s the top one:
They are currently implied for 6.1 runs, the highest mark today.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Rockies. After them is a 1-2-3-7 stack of the Cardinals:
They certainly disappointed last night, scoring only two runs in 10 innings, but Vegas is right back on them today: They’re currently implied for 4.9 runs.
Batters
Houston third baseman Alex Bregman is currently projected to hit second for an Astros team implied for 5.1 runs. He’s a no-splits guy in his short career but hits lefties well: He has a .354 wOBA, .243 Isolated Power (ISO), and .514 slugging percentage. He has been hitting the ball very well lately, as highlighted by his batted-ball distance of 237 feet and exit velocity of 92 MPH in his last 13 games. He faces Oakland lefty Ross Detwiler, who owns the worst WHIP today at 2.016.
Russell Martin is projected to bat cleanup for a Blue Jays team currently implied for 5.1 runs. His splits aren’t otherworldly or anything — he has a .330 wOBA and .189 ISO against righties in the last year — but he has been hitting the ball well lately, as highlighted by his 238-foot batted-ball distance and 38 percent hard-hit rate. Today he’s just too cheap: He’s only $3,100 on FD, which is way too low for a guy hitting cleanup for the Toronto Blue Jays.
It has been at least a couple days since I’ve mentioned Chris Davis, so why not today? He’s facing a righty, which means he’s on the silly side of his splits: He has a .399 wOBA, .335 ISO, and .586 slugging percentage in the last year. His advanced stats have come back down to the upper atmosphere, but they’re still unreal: He has a batted-ball distance of 250 feet, an exit velocity of 96 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 45 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 51 percent in his last 13 games.
Atlanta outfielder Ender Inciarte is projected to bat leadoff for a Braves team currently implied for 4.9 runs. He faces Padres righty Paul Clemens, who owns the worst HR/9 mark of the day at 2.169. Inciarte isn’t a power guy — he has a .114 ISO and .405 slugging percentage in the last year — but he should be an integral part of a Braves offense that is a very intriguing stack option. Inciarte also has stolen base upside: He boasts a .146 SB/G mark in the last year.
Enrique Hernandez is projected to bat leadoff for a Dodgers team currently implied for 5.4 runs and playing at Coors Field. He is only $3,100 on FanDuel. That is all.
OK fine, I’ll go on.
He’s a platoon player. He starts against lefties because of his extreme splits: In the last year, he has a .332 wOBA, .213 ISO, and .427 slugging percentage. His advanced stats recently are awful — he has a batted-ball exit velocity of 84 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 20 percent in his last nine starts — but again . . . he’s $3,100 and batting leadoff at Coors Field.
Good luck today!
