MLB DFS grinds on today with a 13-game main slate at 7:05pm ET. Let’s jump into it.
Pitchers
With regards to Vegas implications, Jose Fernandez and Jake Arrieta are in a tier of their own tonight. They face the Mets and Pirates, who are currently implied for 3.1 and 2.9 runs. So what separates the two?
Arrieta’s stats suggest that he’s the safer play for a variety of reasons: He is a much larger favorite than Fernandez (-235 moneyline versus -155) and his recent advanced data is much better. He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 87 miles per hour (compared to 93 MPH for Fernandez), induced ground balls at a 55 percent clip (40 percent for Jose), allowed an 11 percent line-drive rate (43 percent), and allowed a hard-hit rate of only 20 percent (40 percent). Although Fernandez had a stellar game last outing — he went seven innings and posted nine strikeouts and no runs — those advanced stats are concerning.
However, Fernandez is pitching at a better park at Citi Field (Park Factor of 72) and his K Prediction of 8.2 dominates Arrieta’s mark of 6.3. They have very similar prices: Fernandez is $12,700 on DK and $11,000 on FD. Arrieta is $12,300 on DK and $10,900 on FD. Given their specific metrics today, Fernandez seems to be a prime option for guaranteed prize pools, whereas Arrieta is the elite cash-game play.
In the next arbitrary tier that I’m completely making up right now sits Rangers righty Yu Darvish. He faces the Mariners, who are currently implied for 3.8 runs. I’m beginning to think that Vegas might be a little too down on Darvish. His Vegas implications are typically a little higher than we’d expect, yet he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any outing this year. His advanced stats are solid lately: He has allowed a lot of fly balls (54 percent), but they haven’t been hit very hard (hard-hit rate of 27 percent). If you believe the Mariners’ Vegas projection is too high, then Darvish becomes an elite play. He trails only Fenrandez with a 7.9 K Prediction.
Boston righty Rick Porcello has been fairly consistent lately:
He faces the Rays, who are currently implied to score 3.8 runs, although, like Darvish, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in over a month. His K Prediction today isn’t stellar at 5.8, but he is a heavy favorite at -185 and has great advanced stats: He has allowed an exit velocity of 88 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 26 percent in his last three outings. He’s a suitable cash-game pivot if you can’t comfortably fit in Arrieta.
Speaking of excellent advanced stats: Carlos Martinez has been incredible in his last two starts. He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 168 feet and an exit velocity of 87 MPH. He has also induced ground balls at a 65 percent clip and allowed a hard-hit rate of 18 percent. That’s filthy stuff and has translated into fantasy points: In those two games, he scored 48 and 51 FD points. Today he gets the Brewers, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs and have the slate’s highest SO/AB rate at .297. He has the slate’s third-highest K Prediction at 7.2 and is $900 cheaper than Darvish on FD.
Astros righty Joe Musgrove has been absolutely awful lately:
This shows in his advanced stats, too: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 218 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 41 percent in those last two dreadful games. Why is he even on our radar today then? Well, because he’s facing the Athletics, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs and whose projected lineup owns the worst Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in the slate at .258. Also, Musgrove is only $7,000 on FD. He’s not very good, but Oakland might be worse?
Matt Shoemaker is another cheap option with a solid matchup — on DraftKings at least, where he’s $7,200. He faces the Reds, who are currently implied for 3.6 runs. They have a very high K rate at .270, which means that Shoemaker — not a K guy, as shown by his year-long SO/9 rate of 7.910 — has some sneaky strikeout upside in this game. He has also been in excellent form lately: He has allowed an exit velocity of 85 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 30 percent. He boasts a 90 percent Bargain Rating on DK and is a great SP2 option to pair with a high-priced stud.
Mr. GPP Michael Pineda has been on the bad side of his volatility swing lately, scoring an average of only 10.1 DK points in his last three starts. His advanced stats aren’t particularly encouraging, either: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 44 percent in his last two. However, his DK price has dropped to $7,100 and he has nice upside for that price range: He trails only Fernandez, Darvish, and Martinez today with his 7.0 K Prediction. Per our Trends tool, pitchers around his salary range have historically returned value on DK when projected for at least seven strikeouts:
Stacks
We return to Coors Field, which means that the top handful of five-man DK stacks all belong to the visiting Dodgers. The top-rated one is a 1-2-3-5-6 projected stack:
On FanDuel, the Dodgers still boast the top-rated four-man stack. However, the Nationals have the second-highest stack:
The Nationals are currently implied for 5.3 runs, although they’re just one of several teams with very high totals tonight.
Batters
The Nationals, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, Dodgers, and Rockies are currently all implied for at least 5.3 runs. Because of the high-implied totals and high-priced stud pitchers, this will be a difficult slate to navigate.
I’m pretty sure you have to stop playing MLB DFS if you don’t mention Gary Sanchez, so here we go. In his last 12 games, he has a batted-ball distance of 258 feet, an exit velocity of 96 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 50 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 55 percent. He has a .621 wOBA and .540 Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitchers in his short career. He’s expensive — $4,700 on DK and $4,000 on FD — but he’s probably the scariest guy to fade in DFS right now.
Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara hasn’t seen results lately — he has only one hit in his last 10 at-bats — but his advanced stats suggest better results are imminent: He has an exit velocity of 92 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 51 percent in his last 11 games. He’s on the right side of his batting splits today: He has a .358 wOBA, .178 ISO, and .476 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. He’s projected to bat leadoff for a Rangers team currently implied for 4.8 runs and is fairly cheap at $3,200 on FD.
Addison Russell is also cheap on FD at $2,900. He’s projected to bat fifth for a Cubs team currently implied for 4.7 runs. He faces Pirates lefty Steven Brault, who owns the third-worst WHIP in the slate at 1.600. Russell has solid splits against lefties: He boasts a .328 wOBA, .228 ISO, and .434 slugging percentage in the last year. His teammate Kris Bryant is much more expensive at $4,200 but is elite versus LHP: He has a .424 wOBA, .309 ISO, and .606 slugging in the last year.
Despite the Coors Field game, the Tigers currently have the highest implied run total at 5.8 runs. I would be remiss not to mention Miguel Cabrera. He’s one of the best plays of the day. He faces James Shields, who has a HR/9 mark of 1.985 in the last year — the second-worst mark in today’s slate. Miggy has been crushing the ball lately: He has an average exit velocity of 95 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last 12 games. That’s a GPP combination for the ages.
His teammate Cameron Maybin isn’t a power hitter by any means — he has a .075 ISO in the last year versus fellow righties — but he’s $2,800 and projected to hit second for the Tigers. And, again, they’re implied for 5.8 runs. Despite the lack of power, he has been hitting the ball well: In his last five games, he has an exit velocity of 93 MPH. If you’re trying to combine a high-priced stud pitcher with a high-implied team, Maybin is almost a must-play.
Good luck today!
