At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Huge Favorite, Low K Upside
Pitchers on teams with potent offenses sometimes carry huge Vegas moneylines despite not having a ton of upside in their own individual numbers. A great example of this is J.A. Happ today: Despite his huge games and incredible Consistency lately . . .
. . . he has a poor K Prediction of 5.6. For reference, he costs $9,800 on FD — $1,000 more than Robbie Ray, who has a 6.9 K Prediction. And this is in a slate that features Max Scherzer, who has a K Prediction of 10.5. Anyway, because Happ is pitching for the Blue Jays — they’re implied for 6.0 runs currently — he’s an absolutely massive -255 favorite. At that point, does a low K Prediction even matter?
Let’s find out.
Step 1: Vegas Filters > Moneyline > -485 to -250
As you can see, favorites this big typically crush value and are really consistent.
Now let’s add the low K Prediction.
Step 2: Trends > K Prediction > 3.1 to 6.0
Historically, having a low K Prediction on FD hasn’t led to any less value. In fact, the Plus/Minus slightly increases and the Consistency stays exactly the same.
And what’s really interesting is that these pitchers have come at nearly half the tournament ownership as their high K counterparts.
Good luck today.
