Alright, a full 15-game 7:05 pm ET main slate. There’s a lot to analyze, so let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Cubs ace Jake Arrieta seems to be far-and-away the class of tonight’s pitching group: His 85.1 FanDuel rating in the Bales Model currently is more than 10 points higher than the rating of the closest-rated pitcher, Madison Bumgarner. For reference, that gap is about the same as the one between Bum and the eighth-rated pitcher, Jaime Garcia. Basically, use Arrieta in cash.
He’s on the road in San Diego, which which gives him a Park Factor of 78, and the Padres are currently implied to score 3.1 runs, the lowest mark in the slate. Arrieta’s 8.8 K Prediction is a whopping 1.3 Ks higher than Bumgarner’s second-highest mark of 7.5. Arrieta is also by far the heaviest Vegas favorite today with a -240 moneyline. Garcia is next at -170. Arrieta’s in great form, too: Per our advanced stats, he has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 23 percent in his last two starts.
Arrieta’s stats today aren’t just good. They dominate the field.
The biggest issue with Bumgarner is that he’s the exact same price as Arrieta on FD ($11,000) and actually $600 more on DraftKings. He’s still a great play: He’s facing a Dodgers team currently implied for 3.3 runs. He’s also in great form, allowing a 189-foot batted-ball distance and 26 percent hard-hit rate in his last two starts. However, because of his price point — and the fact that he’s in a pitching duel with Kenta Maeda, which means that he’s essentially a pick’em — Bum can likely be rostered only in tournaments as a contrarian pivot from Arrieta.
Speaking of Maeda: He’s on the other side of the Dodgers-Giants affair, which is a toss-up according to Vegas. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside of the higher-priced pitchers — his 5.8 K Prediction is very average in this slate — but that’s OK because . . . well . . . he’s cheaper than the higher-priced pitchers. (Great analysis, Bryan.) Players at his price point — $8,600 on FD — have typically exceeded value when they have similar Vegas data:
Danny Salazar is on the road tonight in Oakland (with an 84 Park Factor), and he’s facing an A’s team currently implied for 3.4 runs. He has been . . . bad. Like really bad.
His advanced stats are pretty funny actually: His 15-day sample size includes only his last game, but in that game he allowed a batted-ball distance of 299 feet, an exit velocity of 97 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 100 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 66 percent. Interestingly, his average fastball speed was actually up — so I’m skeptical that is horrible outing had anything to do with an injury — but it is only one outing. Regardless, Salazar should be on your GPP radar only. In fact, he’s probably a good SP to stack against. On DraftKings, though, where his salary has dropped to $7,700 (!!!), he’s definitely worthy of GPP flyers.
According to this . . .
Chris Archer is due to perform slightly below expectations tonight. Joking aside, he is an intriguing option: He faces the high-powered Red Sox, but Vegas has them implied for only 3.7 runs tonight. He does get them at home, which means that he has an 88 Park Factor. Despite his most recent gem — a 61-FD point, 7.1-inning shutdown of the Padres — Archer has concerning advanced stats: He has allowed an exit velocity of 93 MPH and hard-hit rate of 41 percent in his last two outings.
Dipping into the bargain bin: Astros righty Joe Musgrove is $6,500 on FD and faces a Pirates team currently implied for 3.8 runs. This seems to be a theme today: He’s on the road in a pitcher’s park: His 94 Park Factor at PNC Park is the highest of the slate. Musgrove got rocked last game — he allowed 11 hits and eight runs in 5.1 innings at Baltimore — but that’s somewhat understandable given the matchup. Today’s matchup is much easier and he boasts a 7.2 K Prediction, which places him fifth in the slate behind Arrieta, Bumgarner, Rob Whalen, and Jon Gray.
Speaking of Gray: He has struggled lately. He has scored nine, 13, and -4 points in his last three starts on FD — but anytime a strikeout pitcher faces the Brewers, he has to be on tournament radars. The Brewers are currently implied for 4.4 runs, so it’s not an ideal matchup per Vegas — and he has a bad umpire behind home plate in Paul Emmel — but in a 15-game slate he’ll be low-owned and has massive K upside.
Seattle righty Taijuan Walker faces a Yankees team currently implied to score 3.8 runs, of which I’m assuming at least three will be Gary Sanchez bombs. Cardinals lefty Garcia and Marlins righty Andrew Cashner have Vegas data similar to Walker’s: Their opponents are implied to score 3.7 and 3.6 runs. Of the three, Cashner has the best Park Factor at 91 and is so cheap: He’s $4,100 on DK and $5,900 on FD. However, he has allowed a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last three starts and has come away with very average results. They’re all GPP-worthy at low price points.
Stacks
The highest-rated five-man DK stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to a 1-2-3-4-6 stack of the White Sox:
They face Phillies righty Jake Thompson, who has a miserable 1.631 WHIP and the worst HR/9 in the slate at 1.915. They’re currently implied for 5.1 runs, which ties them with the Orioles for the highest mark in the slate. Tyler Saladino hasn’t played since the 18th, but is projected to hit second tonight. Definitely monitor Lineups as they come in.
The top-rated four-man FD stack is a 1-2-3-5 stack of the Braves:
It obviously includes Freddie Freeman, who doesn’t seem to be bothered by a finger injury:
His recent exit velocity of 97 MPH and hard-hit rate of 63 percent are silly marks.
Batters
Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon hasn’t started since the 17th, but he’s currently projected to bat first tonight against the Brewers. He pinch hit last night, which is a good sign for his availability moving forward. He’s basically on an earth-scorching heater:
He has a .375 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .230 Isolated Power (ISO), and .526 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. He also has stolen base upside with a SB/G mark of .169. The Rockies are currently implied for 4.7 runs tonight.
Tommy Pham is projected to bat leadoff for a Cardinals team currently implied for 4.9 runs. He’s a no-splits batter and has a .383 wOBA, .230 ISO, and .514 slugging percentage in the last year against lefties. His home park isn’t great for hitters (17 Park Factor), but his advanced stats show that may not matter: In his last six games, he has posted a 244-foot batted-ball distance, a 95 MPH exit velocity, and 44 percent hard-hit rate. Oh yeah, and he’s only $2,400 on FD.
Chris Davis just should not be $3,600 at home versus a right-handed pitcher. In the last year, he has a .396 wOBA, .325 ISO, and .570 slugging percentage against righties — elite, elite marks. In his last 11 games, he has a batted-ball distance of 233 feet, an exit velocity of 97 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 46 percent. Anytime an elite power hitter is seeing a power surge, he has GPP-winning upside.
Speaking of which: Mike Trout has a batted-ball distance of 253 feet, an exit velocity of 96 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last 12 games. He’s also in a hitter’s park in Toronto tonight and is projected to bat second for an Angels squad currently implied for 4.2 runs. His splits are amazing: He has a .430 wOBA, .274 ISO, and .593 slugging percentage in the last year against righties. He gets knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.
Good luck!
