Note: Stephen Strasburg has been scratched from tonight’s game.
The 7:05 pm ET main slate is only eight games. The Dodgers-Reds affair is the lone day game at 12:35 pm ET, which is offered only in the FanDuel all-day slate. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Cubs lefty Jon Lester is the most expensive pitcher today on either site. He’s $12,500 on DraftKings and $11,000 on FanDuel, but he has a lot of things in his favor. He’s a huge Vegas favorite (-217 moneyline) facing a Padres team currently implied for 3.2 runs, the lowest mark in the slate. Lester’s 8.8 K Prediction also leads all pitchers. On the road, he gets the benefit of an 83 Park Factor. Further, Lester has been in solid form lately (per our advanced stats), allowing a batted-ball distance of 192 feet in his last two starts. Creating a trend with all of those stats brings the historical sample size down to one pitcher (notable in its own right), but here’s what it looks like with just the first three metrics:
When I dream of Plus/Minus values, that’s what I see.
After pitching a disastrous game a couple of weeks ago, allowing eight runs in just three innings versus the Twins, Carlos Carrasco has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games. The Cleveland righty faces an Oakland team currently implied for 3.3 runs, the second-lowest mark. Like Lester, he also has a Park Factor of 83, and while his K Prediction of 7.2 is lower he does come with a $1,000 discount on DK and $700 discount on FD. However, Carrasco does have a bit of risk, as he has allowed a hard-hit rate of 38 percent in his last three affairs. Lester is probably the better cash option, while Carrasco is a nice pivot in tournaments.
Just a little bit lower in price sits Boston lefty David Price, who also pitches in a pitcher’s park tonight: His 90 Park Factor rating puts him behind only Doug Fister and Jameson Taillon in Pittsburgh today. Price faces the Rays, who are currently implied for 3.4 runs. Price’s recent form is a bit tricky to discern: He pitched a great game last start, allowing only four hits and one run in six innings at the dangerous Camden Yards, but his advanced stats suggest that there’s some luck in his results. In his last three outings, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 217 feet and an exit velocity of 91 miles per hour. As a play, he’s similar to Carrasco — an interesting pivot from Lester in GPPs.
I mentioned Taillon above: He’s a very nice option at a cheap price, especially on FanDuel, where he is $7,500. He’s at home in a good park and faces an Astros team currently implied for 3.6 runs, the fourth-lowest mark in the slate. Despite a middling result last game against the tough Giants — he scored 24 FD points in six innings — he is perhaps in the best recent form of the pitchers mentioned so far: In his last two games, he has allowed a hard-hit rate of only 24 percent. He’s a fantastic option tonight if you want to come down from the pricey SP options and load up on bats. For more on Taillon, see our Trend of the Day.
Poor Stephen Strasburg:
Those last three starts have been awful, although it should be noted that his last game — a dreadful FD performance with -13 points — came at Coors Field. Unfortunately for Stras, while today’s park — Camden Yards — isn’t Coors, it isn’t exactly a pitcher’s park, either. Camden Yards is historically one of the worst parks for pitchers and that has held true this season:
Vegas doesn’t love the matchup today for Stras, as the Orioles are currently implied for 4.5 runs in a game that’s essentially a pick’em. Stras definitely has upside — he has the slate’s second-highest K Prediction at 8.3 — but his advanced stats show his downside as well: He has allowed an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour in his last two starts. At a pricey $10,700 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel, he’s certainly only viable in tournaments.
Michael Pineda‘s Vegas data today is similar to Strasburg’s: He’s facing a Mariners team currently implied for 4.2 runs and he’s barely a favorite at -110. However, he’s very different in that he boasts excellent advanced stats recently, arguably the best in the entire slate: In his last two starts, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 191 feet, an exit velocity of 86 miles per hour, a ground-ball rate of 61 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 28 percent. Pitchers with those marks have historically done well:
The last two pitchers I’ll mention — Homer Bailey and Blake Snell — are similarly priced on FD at $7,700 and $7,900. They both have massive SO/9 rates on the year but middling K Predictions today (6.7 and 6.3) because of their matchups against the Dodgers and Red Sox. Those teams are currently implied to score 4.7 and 4.2 runs. It’s hard to justify either of them over Taillon in cash games, but because he’s in their salary range they are both likely to go underowned in tournaments.
Stacks
The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to a 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are currently implied to score 5.2 runs, a mark 0.3 higher than that of the next-highest team in the Cubs. They will be highly owned tonight.
On FanDuel, a 1-2-3-5 stack of the Braves actually takes the top spot.
What’s better: That four-man combination is nearly $1,000 cheaper than the highest-rated Diamondbacks stack — a 1-4 straight stack that costs a combined $13,800. The Braves are currently implied to score 4.5 runs in what should be a high-scoring affair at Chase Field.
Batters
Speaking of the Braves: Freddie Freeman is projected to bat third and is tied with Kris Bryant and Paul Goldschmidt with the most DK Pro Trends at 10 currently. Freeman is just in stellar form right now: He has had a hit in each of his last 10 starts. His advanced stats continue to be silly as well: He has a batted-ball distance of 274 feet, an exit velocity of 97 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 62 percent in his last 13 games. DraftKings has priced him way up ($5,400), but he’s still very reasonable on FD ($3,900).
Note: Freeman is day-to-day with a finger injury.
Rockies lefty David Dahl is projected to bat leadoff again tonight and faces a pitcher in Jimmy Nelson who has a poor 1.556 WHIP in the last year. Dahl has incredible numbers against righties in his short career: He boasts a .421 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .284 Isolated Power (ISO), and .608 slugging percentage. He has scored at least some fantasy points in every game of his 24-game MLB career. That’s consistency.
Speaking of brilliant young players: the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez hasn’t been awful lately . . .
He’s projected to bat third for a Yankees team currently implied for 4.4 runs. He has a .569 wOBA, .444 ISO, and .889 slugging percentage in his short career versus righties. He has an exit velocity of 94 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last 10 games. He is only $2,900. Play him.
No batter in MLB DFS is an auto-start, but Nationals shortstop Trea Turner has been so darn consistent this year:
Today he faces righty Dylan Bundy and Turner is actually a reverse-splits guy so far in his career: He has a .395 wOBA, .256 ISO, and .581 slugging percentage against righties this year. Turner is hot right now: He boasts a 92 MPH exit velocity and 46 percent hard-hit rate in his last 12 games. He’s projected to bat leadoff as usual for a Nats team currently implied for 4.4 runs.
Anthony Rizzo is the rare lefty who is essentially a no-splits batter. He’s just really good. Against righties, he has a .402 wOBA, .265 ISO, and .560 slugging percentage in the last year. He faces Edwin Jackson, who allowed nine hits and eight runs in just four innings in his last game against the Rays. Now he gets Rizzo and the Cubs . . . not ideal. Rizzo is projected to bat third for a Cubs team currently implied for 4.9 runs — the second-highest total today.
Good luck!
