At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
Trend of the Day: Low-Implied Underdog Pitchers
In today’s MLB Breakdown, I wrote this about Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom:
The Giants are currently implied for 3.7 runs — a number that usually benefits the moneyline favorite, but deGrom goes up against Bumgarner today and is thus a +145 dog.
So how do pitchers historically perform under these circumstances?
Step 1: Vegas Filters > Favorite/Dog > Dog
Dogs have historically not performed well, even on DraftKings, where a pitcher win is less valuable than it is on FanDuel. But what about for pitchers facing teams implied to score fewer than four runs?
Step 2: Vegas Filters > Opp Runs > 2.9 to 3.9
We see that pitchers under these circumstances have a positive Plus/Minus, although it’s slight. As a bonus, what if we add deGrom’s excellent recent advanced stats?
Step 3: Adv Stats – Recent > HH % – 15 > 6 to 25
This sizable jump is intriguing, as deGrom will likely be underowned across sites tonight: In a slate with aces such as Bumgarner, Fernandez, and Salazar, deGrom’s underdog status sticks out like a sore thumb. If you’re a tournament player, that should make you giddy.
Good luck tonight.
