There are only 11 games today: Two during the day and nine in the evening. The all-day and early slates will begin at 1:10 PM ET and the nine-game main slate will begin as usual at 7:05 PM ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
It feels like a poker tournament with all these aces. [Editor’s Note: It’s a little loud but totally worth it.]
A lot of these guys are close, but Madison Bumgarner seems to be slightly ahead in two important categories: His location and opponent run total. He’s pitching at home — meaning he has a perfect 100 Park Factor — and he’s pitching against the Mets, who are currently implied for 2.9 runs, the lowest mark in the slate. He’s in good recent form. Per our advanced stats, he has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 88 miles per hour in his last two starts. He also has an 8.0 K Prediction today, second only to . . .
Jose Fernandez has a slate-high 11.0 K Prediction, which is actually tied for the highest mark in our database (per our Trends tool):
The sample in that trend is much too small to take the Plus/Minus value as gospel. Rather, the important thing here is that Fernandez is in a different tier when it comes to K upside.
He faces a Reds team currently implied for 3.2 runs and is a sizable -180 moneyline favorite. Although he hasn’t exploded for a huge game recently, his advanced stats suggest that he’s on the verge: He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 83 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 13 percent — incredibly-low marks. The sample size on those aren’t huge either, but the trend is solid. Basically, Jose is un-Trendable today, which speaks to his immense upside in guaranteed prize pools.
We don’t have a Vegas line for Cubs-Brewers yet, but considering that Chicago is already a huge -280 moneyline favorite we can guess that Milwaukee’s implied run total will be very small. The Brewers face Jake Arrieta today, who has struggled a bit this year but has put up two solid performances lately — the most recent coming against rival St. Louis:
Though it’s not quite as drastic as Jose’s stats today, we don’t see -280 favorites too often — but when we do they typically crush:
He has a 7.8 K Prediction today, and even that potentially undersells his K upside against the Brewers: Reds pitcher Homer Bailey struck out 11 batters in six innings just a week ago. Arrieta is at an intriguing price point: He’s $12,900 on DraftKings — in the high-priced tier with Bumgarner — but only $10,900 on FanDuel, behind both Bum and Fernandez. You should probably have most of your cash exposure to him on FD and maybe your GPP exposure to him on DK, where he will definitely have lower ownership.
Danny Salazar faces the White Sox, who are currently implied for 3.5 runs. He has been on the Disabled List dealing with a right elbow issue ever since getting beat up by the Twins on 8/1: He allowed six runs in just two innings pitched. He has been vocal about feeling better, but considering the other ace options on the slate we’d probably be wise to reserve Salazar only for tournaments. He’s particularly interesting on DraftKings, where he has a low $9,000 price tag and 69 percent Bargain Rating.
Jacob deGrom faces the Giants today in San Francisco, which means that he also reaps the benefit of the perfect 100 Park Factor. The Giants are currently implied for 3.7 runs — a number that usually benefits the moneyline favorite, but deGrom goes up against Bumgarner today and is thus a +145 dog. He’s in good recent form: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 187 feet and a hard-hit rate of 24 percent in his last two starts. He won’t be highly owned because of his matchup and price tag — he’s $11,100 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel — which makes him intriguing for GPPs.
If you’re looking for a low-priced option: Archie Bradley is only $6,500 on DK and $6,300 on FD. He has a pretty terrible WHIP at 1.559 and doesn’t have amazing Vegas numbers — the opposing Padres are currently implied for 4.2 runs — but a matchup against the Padres in San Diego (Park Factor of 79) is about as good of a situation as you can ask for considering the price. He also has some sneaky strikeout upside: His K Prediction of 6.7 is sixth-best in the slate. Again, not bad considering the price.
Stacks
The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to a 1-2-3-4-6 stack of the Dodgers, a team that has scored a combined 22 runs in its last two games. In fact, the Dodgers currently own the five highest five-man DK stacks in the Bales Model. They’re currently implied for 4.9 runs and should be very chalky:
On FanDuel, the Dodgers have ‘only’ the two highest four-man stacks. If we eliminate them from consideration, the next stack up is a 1-2-3-8 stack of the Tigers.
They face the Red Sox in the first game of the day starting at 1:10 PM ET.
If you’re playing only the main slate, here’s a bonus FD stack, which belongs to the Indians:
Batters
The top-rated batter in the Bales Model currently is Braves lefty Freddie Freeman, who remains on a ridiculous tear:
In his last 12 games, he boasts a batted-ball distance of 272 feet, an exit velocity of 97 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 62 percent. That’s just silly.
I’m always curious if people have Coors exhaustion after a series. If so, Nationals shortstop Trea Turner — fresh off a Coors series in which he had four hits and two stolen bases — is very intriguing at only $3,700 on FanDuel. He has excellent splits against righties: He has a .374 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .226 Isolated Power (ISO), and .530 slugging percentage against righties in the last year.
I already hate myself for talking about Phillies lefty Ryan Howard, but here we are. Let’s give credit where it’s due: The dude has been solid lately, racking up five hits, seven RBIs, and two home runs in his last three games. In a smaller sample than Freeman’s, he has even more ludicrous advanced stats: In his last eight starts, he has posted a batted-ball distance of 287 feet. He’s only $3,000 on FanDuel.
He’s not hitting in a great park, but Jake Lamb has to be in consideration versus a righty pitcher. He has a .381 wOBA, .251 ISO, and .536 slugging percentage against RHP in the last year and he’s facing Paul Clemens, who has the worst HR/9 mark in the slate at 2.866. Lamb is currently projected to bat cleanup for a Diamondbacks squad implied for 4.3 runs.
Max Kepler, I’ve missed you in the Breakdown. Kepler is projected to bat fifth for a Twins team currently implied for 4.4 runs. He has pretty significant splits against righties: He has a .380 wOBA, .289 ISO, and .556 slugging percentage. His advanced stats haven’t been great lately — he has a 50 percent ground-ball rate in his last 13 games — but he does come with a bit of a price discount today, now down to $3,400 on FanDuel.
Good luck today!
