FanDuel’s all-day slate today includes 10 games. DraftKings’ earliest slate today is the 7:05 PM ET nine-game main slate. Let’s jump into today’s pitchers.
Pitchers
Overall, the pitching options are fairly mediocre today, an odd statement given that Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Nationals . . . at Coors Field. That’s obviously problematic, but I believe that he’s actually still a solid option tonight for several reasons.
First, the Rockies are implied to score ‘only’ 4.2 runs. That’s not an incredible number for a pitcher, but it’s very low for Coors Field: Out of the 754 teams to play there since 2014 (including both the Rockies and their opponents), only 35 times has one of the teams been implied for 4.2 runs or fewer (per our Trends tool)
As you can see, the historical Plus/Minus hasn’t been great: Pitchers even with ‘good’ Vegas data at Coors have recorded a -4.75 Plus/Minus on 40.0 percent Consistency. However, that perhaps undersells Scherzer a bit. Let’s see how similarly-priced pitchers have performed instead.
There have been only 11 instances in which a pitcher has been priced at $10,000 or more on FanDuel at Coors. That fact may seem negative: “Bryan, why should I invest $10,000 on a pitcher at Coors?” I get it. But if we think about pricing as a proxy for how well a pitcher should do, isn’t that a big neon sign pointing us to Scherzer’s potential? After all, those 11 historical instances have been positive, as shown in the trend above.
Maybe Scherzer will bust — that’s obviously very possible given the location. However, there is precedent here and he does have other good stats, notably his 8.3 K Prediction, the second-highest mark tonight currently. And most importantly, he might be low-owned in tournaments.
If you want safer cash-game options, Drew Smyly and Matt Moore are at the top of the list. They’re closely priced on FanDuel at $8,500 and $8,800, and they’re both facing opponents currently implied for 3.5 runs — the lowest mark of the day. They’re both pitching in excellent parks: While Scherzer has a Park Factor of zero at Coors, Smyly is at home with a 90 Park Factor and Moore is even better at home with a perfect 100 Park Factor.
Smyly does have a significant leg up on Moore in other areas, however. His K Prediction of 7.5 dwarfs Moore’s mark of 5.9. Smyly (-173) is a heavier favorite than Moore (-137). Smyly also boasts better recent advanced stats, which are excellent: He has allowed a batted-ball exit velocity of 85 miles per hour in his last two starts. For those reasons, Smyly is the top-rated pitcher currently in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Robbie Ray is only $7,800 on FanDuel and faces a Mets team whose projected lineup has a .281 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), the fourth-lowest mark today. However, Vegas has them implied at 4.4 runs currently. Although Ray has exceeded salary-based expectations on FD in his last five starts, his advanced stats are very concerning: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 44 percent in his last two starts. He’s a fine tournament option on FanDuel, although he is probably too expensive at $9,600 on DraftKings.
Even lower in price sits Marlins righty David Phelps. He has pitched very well in his two games since joining the rotation, averaging 26 FD points at a minimum price. He has allowed only one run in those two games and has struck out nine batters. Vegas seems to think his recent play isn’t a fluke: The opposing Reds are currently implied for 4.1 runs. The only issue is that he’ll likely get no more than five innings, which really limits both his ceiling and floor. The price is intriguing, but he’s a tournament play at best.
The last pitcher I’ll mention is Drew Pomeranz, who is interesting only because of his recent advanced stats. In his last two starts, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 160 feet, an exit velocity of 83 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of only 19 percent. Pitchers don’t hit those marks often, but when they do they typically crush.
In today’s one day game, he’s faces the Indians, currently implied for 4.5 runs. The matchup is bad, but his advanced stats are incredible. Throw him in at least one all-day tournament lineup.
Stacks
No surprise: The high-powered Nats offense at Coors Field today has the highest-rated five-man DK stack (per the Bales Model):
Five of their top-six batters have double-digit DK Pro Trends. Jayson Werth, projected to bat second, currently has 15 PRO TRENDS.
FanDuel is dominated by Washington as well, but if we eliminate them then a projected 1-3-4-8 stack of the Rangers takes the top spot:
Batters
Devon Travis is projected to hit leadoff for the Blue Jays, currently implied for 5.1 runs — a mark that would typically bring incredibly high ownership, but perhaps won’t tonight given the Nationals’ (5.8) and Rangers’ (5.7) superior marks. Travis has excellent splits against righties: He has a .396 wOBA, .226 Isolated Power (ISO), and .548 slugging percentage in the last year.
Oakland shortstop Marcus Semien is also projected to bat leadoff and also has excellent splits today: In the last year, he has boasted a .412 wOBA, .302 ISO, and .617 slugging percentage against lefties. His recent hard-hit rate is a bit down at 24 percent, but his batted-ball exit velocity is at 93 MPH in his last 12 games. I’m admittedly not sure what to do about that discrepancy right now — we’ll have to study that further in the future — but it is intriguing given his splits.
Brad Miller is projected to bat cleanup for a Rays team currently implied for 4.6 runs. His splits are also excellent: He has a .364 wOBA, .254 ISO, and .527 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. He faces Luis Perdomo, who has an awful 1.919 WHIP over the last year — the second-worst mark in the slate. Miller is batting in San Diego — a pitcher’s park — but that will also lower his ownership.
Jose Reyes has played only two games for the Mets since being activated off the Designated List, but it seems as if he’s in fine health: He got a hit and swiped a base just last night. He’s projected to bat leadoff for the Mets, who are currently implied for 4.2 runs. He has good splits — a .379 wOBA, .225 ISO, and .535 slugging versus lefties — and has stolen-base upside at .176 SB/G. Most importantly, he’s only $2,500 on FanDuel.
Jay Persson and I have discussed several times in our MLB GPP series that one of our favorite ways to be contrarian is to roster a batter who has positional eligibility that conflicts with the eligibility of a higher-in-the-order teammate. Justin Smoak is a great example of this: Today, he has 1B eligibility but bats behind Edwin Encarnacion, who also has 1B eligibility. That naturally lowers Smoak’s ownership from where it should be, based on his excellent splits: He has a .349 wOBA, .246 ISO, and .481 slugging percentage versus righties. Smoak is a great home run candidate tonight at potentially very low ownership.
Good luck!
