The Forward Pass is a series that looks at recent NFL performances in a forward-looking manner for the purposes of daily fantasy sports. In this piece are a few random thoughts on the four preseason games of Saturday, August 13th.
If you’re curious about the DFS implications of the preseason, check out the recent Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable in which Rotoworld Senior Football Editor Evan Silva and FantasyLabs writer Adam Levitan join me to discuss the topic.
One final note: The analysis herein is serious. The delivery in many cases definitely isn’t.
Seahawks at Chiefs
Seattle
The first-team offense played one series, which quarterback Russell Wilson opened by completing back-to-back first-down passes to 2015 superstar wide receiver Doug Baldwin for 12- and 11-yard gains. Baldwin’s touchdown total will almost certainly regress in 2016, but we shouldn’t assume that his targets will.
Wide receivers Tyler Lockett and Jermaine Kearse also saw action with the first team. Lockett turned his one third-and-10 target into an 11-yard completion for a first down. Kearse turned his two targets into two incompletions — and an interception. All of that seems normal.
The Seahawks drafted three running backs this year basically because their selection of Christine Michael in the 2013 NFL draft hadn’t worked out. And now Michael is apparently turning into a star. He opened the game with the first team and finished the night with seven carries for 44 yards. After the game, head coach Pete Carroll trolled the universe by saying that the Seahawks backfield was going to be “a little 1-2 punch” in 2016. When I think of No. 2, I think of Michael. (Yes, that was a scatological pun. It was the sh*t.)
Kansas City
Running back Spencer Ware opened the game playing with the first-team offense, which saw only one series, which lasted eight plays and culminated in a touchdown. Four of those plays were Ware rushes. One went for nine yards. The other three went for four yards and a touchdown. All of that is really representative of who Ware is. He is ahead of Charcandrick West on the depth chart and right now is Jamaal Charles‘ primary backup.
In other news, Tampa Bay Mike Williams is still in the league. (Sort of.)
Colts at Bills
Indianapolis
Journeyman running back Jordan Todman got only one opportunity. He turned that screen pass into a 42-yard touchdown. Todman is a perpetual preseason superstar with regular-season potential. Undrafted rookie Josh Ferguson has been hyped this offseason, but Todman is superior to him in literally every way. He was better in college, bigger and faster at the combine, actually drafted by an NFL team, and two years younger as rookie. He has five years of NFL experience but is still young and fresh. In terms of size and NFL efficiency, he looks a lot like Devonta Freeman — except he’s a better athlete than Freeman. (And I know that I sound crazy but I don’t care.) For the change-of-pace pass-catching role, Todman has a real chance to beat out Ferguson, who rushed eight times for three yards . . . and wasn’t even targeted.
Buffalo
Running back LeSean McCoy opened the first-team offense’s only series with a two-yard reception followed by a nine-yard run. And then he left the game. Get used to seeing Shady touch the ball on 100 percent of his snaps.
Shady was replaced by Mike Gillislee, who rushed three times for 25 yards. He’s clearly the No. 2 back right now. If he plays well in that role during the first four games of the season — when Karlos Williams is suspended — then he might keep the job when Karlos returns. He did well last year in his five-game stretch with the team, rushing for 5.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns on 47 attempts.
Cowboys at Rams
Dallas
Judging by the roughly 1,000 text messages I got last night from my Texas friends, Dak Prescott just stole Tony Romo‘s job, Darius Jackson is the greatest late-round running back ever, Lucky Whitehead needs more touches, Vince Mayle is an ideal injury replacement for Dez Bryant, and Dez is 100 percent healthy and ready to form the league’s most explosive wide receiver trio with Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley. Other than that, there’s not much to say.
Los Angeles
Quarterback Case Keenum started the game for the Rams. Anytime you have new and excited fans, you need to let them know as soon as possible that the most they should expect from you is mediocrity. Jeff Fisher isn’t an idiot.
If rookie tight end Tyler Higbee doesn’t end up suspended and/or in jail for second-degree assault, second-degree evading police, and public intoxication, then on the field this season he has the potential to be a dominant player who gets the ball almost never. He was the Rams’ best player in this game, turning six targets into five receptions and 49 yards.
Chargers at Titans
San Diego
Last year (I think that) Melvin Gordon didn’t suck nearly as much as people thought he did. At the same time, let’s not pretend that 1) his preseason score ends his touchdown drought or that 2) his touchdown didn’t come on a blown coverage. His touchdown drought is overblown, but that he scored a touchdown on a 44-yard reception means nothing. What’s more important is that he, and not Danny Woodhead, was the player targeted. That means something.
Tennessee
Running backs DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry smashed mouths exotically. Murray busted a 71-yard touchdown run and Henry grinded his way to an impressive debut. Certainly Murray’s explosive demonstration should help him hold off Henry. He was the more impressive back, right? Wrong. Murray had three yards or fewer on four of his six carries. Henry had three yards or fewer on only three of 10 carries — and he had at least six yards on each of the other seven runs. Murray was a guy who got a long touchdown. Henry was a guy who dominated the defense.
Starting quarterback Marcus Mariota completed all five of his pass attempts and didn’t give up a sack. He’s also his team’s best running back — except for Bishop Sankey.
Conclusion
Seriously, whenever a guy looks like LeSean McCoy as a prospect and then plays on a really sh*tty team for the first two years of his career, we can’t assume that he must be a bad player. Sankey probably sucks. But the odds that he’s a good player who was professionally sabotaged by a 3-20 Ken Whisenhunt are better than most people think. I know that his 3-52-1 stat line came against subpar competition in a preseason game, but . . .
I still have hope.
