Throughout the season, I am using our FREE Trends tool to create a custom trend, and then I am tracking the results of my matches for the week in this article. The goal is to create trends with high Plus/Minus values and share them with our readers every Friday.
Description
Anyone who plays MLB DFS regularly on FanDuel knows the importance of pitcher wins. In fact, this isn’t the first time we’ve written about it. Consider the following: Costing $10,900 on Monday, Jose Fernandez’s implied point total was 36.46. If Jose was able to pick up a win in this game, there’s 12 points right off the bat, meaning we would need only 24 fantasy points from raw pitching stats. Here are some paths you can take to get to 24 fantasy points on FanDuel:
— Five IP (15 points), two ER (-6 points), five Ks (15 points)
— Six IP (18 points), four ER (-12 points), six Ks (18 points)
An average start from Fernandez in 2016 has looked like this:
— Six IP, three ER (rounding), nine Ks
It’s very hard to imagine a scenario this season in which Fernandez picks up a win, but fails to accumulate at least 24 fantasy points from raw pitching stats.
Remember, that 24-point target was based on Fernandez’s $10,900 salary. For most pitchers, the bar is much lower. In this week’s trend, I’m going to be taking advantage of pitchers who are priced down but also favored to earn a win in their matchup.
This is a relatively straightforward trend, consisting of only the two following filters:
— Salary has decreased by at least $500 over the past month.
— Pitcher’s team is favored to win.
Results
The following screenshots are pulled from entries into FanDuel’s guaranteed prize pools throughout the week.
8/8
Speaking of Fernandez: He was Monday’s match within the trend. Against the Giants, Fernandez had no problem getting to 24 fantasy points from raw pitching stats. Unfortunately, though a -140 moneyline favorite to win, the Marlins were defeated at home, erasing the possibility of a 12-point bonus for Jose.
Had he won, Fernandez would have exceeded his 36-point implied total, but instead he was tagged with a -3.46 Plus/Minus in the start. Whether you choose to take a total points scored or points per dollar perspective, Fernandez was bested by several other pitchers on Monday, led by Tyler Duffey, who scored 50 fantasy points against a cost of $5,500.
8/9
I and three or four drunken homers from Issaquah, Washington, were on Wade LeBlanc tonight, as you can see from his ownership. Unfortunately, LeBlanc pitched as he has over much of the season, which resulted in a pretty “meh” outing. While LeBlanc was a cheap favorite here, there was almost no strikeout upside. Coming into the matchup, his K Prediction was just 4.3.
Still, with a salary-based implied point total of 24.16, LeBlanc would have been right there if things had broken just a little bit differently and Kansas City had won the game. That in itself highlights how crucial pitcher wins are because, otherwise, this was a pretty horrible fantasy outing.
I ended up not rostering Tom Koehler because his team wasn’t favored at the time I was creating lineups, but take a look at what he did against San Francisco:
8/9
Poor Drew Pomeranz. The guy allows one measly run, leaves the game, and the Yankees finish the game with nine runs. Again, had Pomeranz been awarded a win — and Boston did hold a lead entering the sixth inning — Pomeranz would have easily exceeded his salary-based expectations. If it sounds like I’m making a lot of excuses for the players who qualified for the trend this week . . . well, okay, I am. But consider this: I would have taken down the last Millionaire Maker if I had rostered ‘only’ three different golfers in my lineup. Anyway, I thought this was a pretty good ownership level on Pomeranz on a slate in which Justin Verlander and J.A. Happ were both priced over the moon.
8/11
Since there were no matches yesterday, let’s look at today’s matches.
Carrasco’s price has dropped $700 since 7/15. His price is likely down after a -10 point demolition on 8/2 that came at the hands of the Minnesota Twins. In his last start, Carrasco responded with a 39-point performance against the Yankees. The Indians are -144 favorites to win today at the time of this writing.
Logan Verrett currently costs $6,200, down from a high price of $6,900. Verrett struggled in his last game against the Tigers, posting a -1 score. Verrett’s recent velocity is down by 1.5 miles per hour over the past two weeks, which may be an indication that there is something wrong with his mechanics or arm. He does have a nice matchup against the Padres, so whether I played him tonight would depend on my risk tolerance.
Review
It’s always a bit frustrating in this series when an otherwise ‘good’ trend has poor results over the week in which it is highlighted, and that’s what I think has happened here. The overall Plus/Minus and Consistency of the trend are both decent and it makes sense that we might find success by playing this trend’s matches.
Though possible, it is going to be very difficult for a pitcher to miss hitting his implied point total on FanDuel during a game in which he is awarded a win. A win is valued at 12 points and even the most expensive of pitchers on FanDuel carry implied point totals only in the high-thirties. By targeting pitchers whose prices are down recently, we’ll be able to get to their value with even below average performances (by their personal standards), so long as they are awarded a win in the same game.
