Today’s slate is very odd: It is a split slate — there are five day games starting at 12:10 pm ET and then seven games in the 7:05 pm main slate — but, more interestingly, the current Vegas totals are all very high. There are only three teams out of the 24 playing currently implied for fewer than four runs and no team is below 3.5.
As a result, finding elite pitching options will be tough. Let’s start there before we move to batters.
Pitching
Again, the totals are high: 23 of the 24 teams are implied for at least 3.9 runs currently. The lone exception is the Royals — and thus a far fall from grace for the defending World Series champs — who are currently implied for 3.5. They face Drew Smyly, who sort of becomes the top option in the slate by default because of all the incredibly high run totals. He’s especially cheap on DraftKings, where he boasts a $7,600 salary and an 87 percent Bargain Rating. His 6.6 K Prediction is mediocre usually, but again this isn’t a usual slate. That mark is top-five today.
Drew Pomeranz faces the Mariners, who are implied to score ‘only’ 3.9 runs currently. He does have a respectable K Prediction of 7.8 and has a lot of upside in that regard: His high 10.572 SO/9 rate matches up very well with Seattle’s bottom-five SO/AB rate of .262. He’s a moderate favorite of -140, but that’s actually the third-best mark in the slate. The only stronger favorites currently are Mike Leake (-150) and Mike Clevinger (-148): The days (see: yesterday) of huge -240 favorites (see: Max Scherzer) are not upon us. Pomeranz does have concerning advanced stats — he has allowed a hard-hit rate of 44 percent in his last three starts — but every pitcher requires a compromise today.
We’ll move to our third-straight lefty in J.A. Happ, pitching on the road in Houston tonight. Happ has very intriguing recent data: His batted-ball distance allowed of 169 feet in his last two starts qualifies as very elite, but his 41 percent hard-hit rate isn’t great. However, he has absolutely crushed lately from a DFS perspective:
But will that hold up? He has induced ground balls at a high rate — 54 percent in his last two games — and his K rate has been way up in the last month. There might be reason for skepticism in a normal slate, but, in this pitching desert, drink up.
Ian Kennedy boasts a slate-high 8.1 K Prediction and is pitching on the road in Tampa Bay, giving him a Park Factor of 90. In this slate, we’ll take those marks. Per our Trends tool:
Tampa Bay is implied to score 4.1 runs currently, and in his last three starts Kennedy has allowed a batted-ball distance of 245 feet, a miserable mark. There is definite risk with Kennedy. But at least with your risk, you’re getting some upside — right?
Nathan Eovaldi is $7,100 on FanDuel, in cast you don’t feel like paying in the $9,000 range for this assortment today. He faces the Mets, who are currently implied to score 4.0 runs. He’s a decent -134 favorite and has very solid advanced stats lately: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 192 feet, an exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 29 percent. Those aren’t really departures from his yearly averages, but they’re still good marks for this slate.
Matt Moore faces the Phillies, currently implied for 3.9 runs. He’s coming off two excellent outings in which he put up 47 FanDuel points against the Dodgers and 42 against the Athletics, and both on the road. Even still, his advanced stats are pretty mediocre. For example, he has allowed an exit velocity of 93 MPH in those two games. His 5.7 K Prediction is pretty ‘meh,’ but he does have umpire Dan Iassogna behind home plate, who has historically gifted to pitchers 1.0 FD points over expectations.
I already hate myself for writing about him, but Kenta Maeda boasts the best WHIP in the slate at 1.109. The only problem is, well, he’s pitching against the Rockies at Coors Field. They’re currently implied to score 5.0 runs. Yeah.
However, if you were ever going to pick a slate to get weird with your pitching and fade Coors, today might be your day. Taking a pitcher going against a team implied for 5.0 runs is usually not a profitable strategy, but Maeda has done well in this situation before. Earlier this year (April 23), Maeda pitched at Coors Field and was also $7,500 and scored 55 FD points, good for a +27.07 Plus/Minus. As far as Coors goes, an implied total of 5.0 runs isn’t that high.
OK, I’ve talked myself into this. Sometimes you have to take a bold stance, and, you know what? I Maeda stand.
Stacks
Let’s start with the early games. The top-rated five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model is a projected 1-2-3-4-5 straight stack of the Cardinals:
In the main slate, that honor ‘shockingly’ belongs to a Coors team, the Dodgers:
At least this projected 1-2-3-4-6 stack isn’t a straight 1-5 stack, but it still perhaps isn’t distinctive enough given the high ownership these players will likely have. For what it’s worth, the second highest-rated stack currently is a 1-2-3-4-8 stack of the Dodgers, which will likely be more distinctive.
On FanDuel, if we remove the Dodgers from consideration, the Pirates have the highest-rated stack currently:
Batters
Speaking of the Pirates: Matthew Joyce is projected to bat fifth for them and is entirely too cheap, especially on FanDuel, where he’s only $2,400. As you would expect, batters that cheap A) with Joyce’s power (.267 Isolated Power versus righties) and B) on teams projected for a lot of runs (4.8) are a value:
The Pirates face Tyrell Jenkins, who easily has the worst HR/9 allowed mark in the main slate at 1.901. Joyce, along with the rest of his fellow Pirates, are excellent pivots from the Dodgers-Rockies affair.
In the early slate: Let’s mention Stephen Piscotty for the second day in a row. He’s projected to bat third for a Cardinals lineup implied for 5.0 runs currently. He has elite marks against lefties: He boasts a .437 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), .275 ISO, and .601 slugging percentage. His advanced stats have been ugly lately — he has a ground-ball rate of 57 percent in his last 10 games — but that could potentially lead to reduced ownership.
I’ve been joking about Max Kepler for a couple days in a row, but I’m serious now:
Better offense: the new Durant Warriors or the Twins?
— Bryan Mears (@bryan_mears) August 4, 2016
In the last three games, the Twins have scored 13, 10, and 12 runs. They’re the 2016 Dream Team.
They’re implied to score ‘only’ 4.1 runs currently, but Kepler has beastly splits: He has a .403 wOBA, .353 ISO, and .625 slugging percentage. Normally I’d be worried about recency bias, given the Twins’ recent dominance, but in a Coors slate and on a day in which 10 teams are currently projected for 4.5-plus runs, I’m skeptical that will happen. Ride the hot bats at (still) low ownership.
Adam Jones is projected to bat leadoff for the Orioles, who are one of those high-implied teams: They’re currently slated at 4.8 runs. He is expensive at DraftKings ($5,000) but is more reasonable at FanDuel ($3,500), where he boasts a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He has a .345 wOBA, .216 ISO, and .486 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers — which is convenient, as he faces righty A.J. Griffin and his recent hard-hit rate allowed of 42 percent.
We could go on and on with batters in elite spots: Again, a whopping 10 teams are currently implied for at least 4.5 runs. You’ll definitely need to pick your spots and decide which offenses to target. Do you want to fade Coors in a slate with many high-powered offenses? Or do you perhaps want to target Coors because the power of the slate might result in low Coors ownership?
Good luck today.
