At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
Trend of the Day: Inconsistent Month, Positive Differentials
The goal today is to learn if hitters who have had a difficult time meeting expectations at their salary over the past month while simultaneously providing positive advanced stat differentials over the last 15 days are viable tournament options. It’s fair to assume their inability to provide value would lend itself to recency bias fades, but do positive differentials alter the equation?
Step 1a: Fantasy Month Filters > Month Consistency > 19 to 30
Step 1b: Fantasy Month Filters > Month Count > 10 to 30
We’re filtering DraftKings hitters who have been able to meet salary-based expectations less than a third of the time. Adding the Month Count filter weeds out individuals who rarely participate and safeguards against small sample size in the next step. Initial returns yield a neutral Plus/Minus and a 38.7 percent Consistency, which is already an improvement on their inconsistency the past month. We may be onto something.
Step 2a: Adv Stats – Recent > Distance Diff > 1 to 40
Step 2b: Adv Stats – Recent > Exit Velocity Diff > 1 to 5
Step 2c: Adv Stats – Recent > HH Diff > 1 to 20
Improved advanced stats across the board boosts the Plus/Minus, and the Consistency jumps to 42.3 percent. For hitters who wallowed below 30 percent Consistency, we can be selective when deciding which matches to employ due to their collective improvement.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Runs > 4 to 4.7
Only eight teams are currently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs. Targeting hitters in a monthly rut on teams implied to score a hair below 5.0 presents an alternative way to select players who may encounter low ownership.
Current Matches
Seven hitters projected to start tonight have provided solid recent advanced stats despite failing to perform up to expectations regularly over the last month.
Cameron Maybin and James McCann will face left-handed pitcher Chris Sale, who suffered a decrease of 1.7 miles per hour on his fastball in his previous start while striking out only four batters in six innings. Because J.D. Martinez (elbow) is expected to return to the lineup, Maybin will likely shift to the end of the batting order for a team currently implied to score 4.2 runs. McCann currently leads the Tigers with eight Pro Trends on DraftKings, and all three of his home runs over the past week have come off left-handed pitchers.
Jurickson Profar, in his sporadic playing time, has exceeded salary-based expectations four times since the beginning of July (18 starts). His three extra-base hits and zero stolen bases since the All-Star break substantially limits his upside.
Albert Pujols has supplied a +2.63 Plus/Minus as a past member of this trend. He encounters a pitcher in Kendall Graveman who relies on ground balls over strikeouts.
Gordon Beckham and Nick Markakis will face off against left-handed pitcher Jeff Locke, whose 5.797 SO/9 is the second-worst mark in the main slate. This bodes well for Beckham and his positive differentials against left-handed pitchers. He’s the top-rated Braves player in the DraftKings Bales Model, and he provides dual-position eligibility (2B and 3B). Markakis doesn’t fare as well batting against a pitcher of the same handedness, and his post All-Star break success has mainly been on hard-hit grounders clearing the infield.
James Loney has matched this Trend 10 previous times, and he’s exceeded salary-based expectations on six of those occasions. He rarely strikes out, and his positive wOBA (+0.085) and ISO (+0.075) splits against right-handed pitchers while hitting at Yankee Stadium should not go overlooked. Right-handed pitcher Chad Green has allowed a slate-worst 2.8 HR/9 in the last year.
