Sunday will feature plenty of rain. Five of the first seven games scheduled currently forecast precipitation of at least 36 percent. Four of those contests are in stadiums without retractable roofs. Lineup-building will require careful navigation of the elements: Earth, fire, wind, water, and, of course, heart. The final six contests slated after 3 PM ET currently lack an ominous forecast, mitigating rain-delay risk.
The non-waiver trade deadline will expire on Monday at 4PM ET. Follow the FantasyLabs MLB twitter account for breaking news and opportunities that may arise if players in confirmed lineups are dealt to other teams.
Pitchers
Syndergaard and Kluber
Noah Syndergaard and Corey Kluber are the highest-rated pitchers on both DFS sites in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Over the last two seasons, a home start for Syndergaard has resulted in 69.6 percent Consistency on DraftKings and FanDuel. All of Syndergaard’s current peripherals are good: He has a slate-high 11.11 SO/9, slate-high 8.3 K Prediction, slate-high 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, -217 moneyline for the Mets, and an opponent with a slate-low implied Vegas total of 2.8 runs.
It may be unorthodox, but I like to use the Stack feature and sort by the lowest-rated stacks to get an idea of fade worthy lineups. It’s not a fool-proof method, but six of the bottom seven rated five-man stacks on DraftKings using the CSURAM88 model belong to the Rockies. Their Team Value Rating on DraftKings is 29, one percentage point better than their FanDuel score. Trevor Story may not play based on the swelling in his left thumb, and he’s not in the projected lineup. All of that suggests the extent to which Thor could make Odin proud.
Kluber has been on a heater of his own, notching at least seven strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts while exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine starts on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He shares a similar path to exceeding salary-based expectations and securing a win. The Athletics projected lineup has a slate-low 0.247 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). The Indians’ projected lineup, a slate-high 0.329 wOBA. Additionally, umpire Hunter Wendelstedt is behind the plate. Over the last two seasons, home pitchers have cultivated a +4.30 Plus/Minus on 72.9 percent Consistency on DraftKings and a +6.04 Plus/Minus on 66.7 percent Consistency on FanDuel when he has been calling balls and strikes.
The difference in salaries is +$200 for Syndergaard on DraftKings and +$600 for Kluber on FanDuel. Both aces will be confronted with rain and a potential thunderstorm later this afternoon. Syndergaard gets the edge in moneyline and K Prediction — 8.3 to 6.2 — but Kluber does have offensive firepower and a benevolent umpire to help him out. Either one will work in tournaments and cash games, barring weather.
Others
Aaron Sanchez leads all pitchers with 40.5 FanDuel points and 25.8 DraftKings points per game over the past month. Over the last 12 months, Sanchez has accumulated a 78 percent Consistency on DraftKings and a slate-low five percent Dud rate on both DFS platforms. He lives by the ground ball, not the strikeout. Fortunately, the Orioles projected lineup carries the second-worst SO/AB (0.30) on the slate, giving Sanchez a ‘livable’ 5.7 K Prediction. Sanchez is priced down to $9,000 on FanDuel, and his ability to limit opposing hitters to a slate-best 166-foot batted-ball distance in his last two starts indicates that should be a high-floor option in cash games.
Michael Pineda possesses the second-best SO/9 (10.22) on the slate, and the Rays’ projected lineup provides the fifth-most pitcher-friendly SO/AB (.270). His 7.3 K Prediction is the fourth-highest on the slate. However, before Pineda turned his season around in June, the Rays rocked him for 13 earned runs and five home runs in two short-lived starts. Pineda has been prone to surrender the long ball, but his recent performances against the Astros and Orioles — two of the top eight teams in home runs — suggest that he’s worth a few tournament shares.
Andrew Cashner will make his Marlins debut against the Cardinals. Roughly 10 days ago, Cashner struck out eight Cardinals in 5.2 innings. That’s a far cry from his 4.7 K Prediction today. While some people will think that moving from Petco Park to Marlins Stadium is a downgrade, the fact is that (given Cashner’s handedness) his 91 Park Factor today will be his highest in a home start in our database.
Francisco Liriano recorded a season-high 13 strikeouts against the Brewers two starts ago. As fate would have it, the Pirates are facing the Brewers today, and their projected lineup, which includes the ailing Ryan Braun (side) and excludes the soon-to-be-traded Jonathan Lucroy, sports a slate-low 0.327 SO/AB. If you’re looking for a cheap option with strikeout upside facing a stripped-down lineup, Liriano fits the bill.
Homer Bailey, who is a little over a year removed from Tommy John Surgery, will make his first start since April of 2015. Reds Manager Bryan Price admitted to playing it conservative with Bailey, but there’s no hard pitch count or innings limit. In 30 minor league rehab innings, Bailey registered 28 strikeouts but failed to complete six innings in any start. His 8.1 K Prediction is the second-highest on the slate, but his $8,700 salary on DraftKings almost matches his high of $9,100 in our database. Exposure should be minimal, given his mediocre rehab stint and career 7.4 SO/9.
Stacks
The top five-man stacks on DraftKings using the CSURAM88 Model feature some amalgamation of the Nos. 1-6 hitters in the Pirates projected lineup. The primary option implements a stack resembling the combination an idiot might use for his luggage: 1-2-3-4-5. Opposing starter Matt Garza’s low 5.88 SO/9 will mix well with the Pirates’ 0.325 wOBA, the third-highest mark on the slate.
The CSURAM88 spits out a similar lineup on FanDuel using the Rating option. Rather than double dip, I shifted focus to Isolated Power (ISO)-based stacks. The Twins claim the top four-man stacks, as five of their top seven hitters possess a positive wOBA Differential. Miguel Sano, who rested on Saturday, and Kenny Vargas are the only constants in each four-man stack. Rain is in the forecast, and the Vegas data hasn’t been released, but the Twins throttle left-handed pitchers.
Hitters
Four of the Rangers’ top six projected hitters have a Bargain Rating of at least 93 percent on FanDuel. Jurickson Profar ($2,600) and Nomar Mazara ($2,300) are two of the top four hitters in the CSURAM88 Model. The Rangers are implied to score a slate-high 5.6 runs, and Profar and Mazara are projected to bat first and second in the order. Rougned Odor ($3,600), who can’t be included in a stack with Profar because they share the same position, leads all FanDuel hitters with 11 Pro Trends, and Mazara is right behind him with 10. Opposing pitcher Dillon Gee has a 1.64 HR/9 average over the past 12 months.
Buster Posey met expectations yesterday, posting 12.2 FanDuel points. And yet FanDuel knocked $300 off of today’s price tag, reducing him to $2,700. Posey needs to produce only 8.67 FanDuel points to match today’s salary-based expectations. Brandon Belt, a reverse-splits left-handed hitter, dropped to $3,000 on FanDuel. Recently acquired Eduardo Nunez costs the same as Belt, a price range — plus or minus $100 — that has resulted in a +2.50 Plus/Minus on 44 percent Consistency this season. Posey, Belt, and Nunez lead the Giants in wOBA and slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. Despite their current mark of 3.9 implied runs, the Giants have some tantalizing options in the lineup with which to create tournament mini-stacks.
The Royals may get overlooked facing a team implied to score a slate-high 5.4 runs, but their 5.0 implied runs are tied for the third-highest total. Their Bargain Ratings on each site are too disjointed to warrant a full stack, but their Nos. 3-5 hitters in the projected lineup all have at least an 81 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Because the Royals have hit the second-fewest home runs and scored the fourth-fewest runs this season, loading up entirely on their hitters isn’t advisable. Still, the Royals offer a bit of security because there’s no rain in the forecast and you can generate unique tournament lineups with selective exposure.
Aledmys Diaz is on baby watch this week. He was scratched in Saturday’s game due to something unrelated, but be prepared for the late-scratch DJ.
Team Value Rating
The Padres have a Team Value Rating of 88 on DraftKings. Very few players in the projected lineup have produced negative advanced stat differentials since the All-Star break, and the Matt Kemp trade has created an opportunity for someone to move closer to the top of the batting order. A Derek Norris trade might be the next move by the club, so be careful when sticking him into your lineup. Alex Dickerson (hip) will likely slot into the cleanup spot if he’s healthy enough to play. After his recent string of home runs in four straight games, he’s still only $3,000.
The Dodgers’ 84 Team Value Rating is the highest at FanDuel. Five of the top six hitters have Bargain Ratings of at least 63 percent. For the month of July, the Dodgers have posted a league-high +2.16 Plus/Minus, and Justin Turner ($3,500) has posted a 57.1 percent Consistency while offering 38 percent Upside.
Good luck!
