Throughout the season, I am using our FREE Trends tool to create a custom trend, and then I am tracking the results of my matches for the week in this article. The goal is to create trends with high Plus/Minus values and share them with our readers every Friday.
Description
This week’s trend is a bit more matchup-centric than others that we’ve looked at recently. Specifically, we are looking to attack low-strikeout pitchers in order to mitigate risk when selecting batters with high strikeout rates. By reducing strikeout downside, we should (in theory) be left with reasonable upside in many of the hitters we’ll consider. Often, but not always, high-strikeout batters tend to have more power than ‘put the ball in play’ types. And if we can roster them in situations in which they strike out less, they should have more opportunities to use their power.
The filters I used to create this trend were as follows:
• The batter’s SO/AB is at least 0.2
• The opposing pitcher’s SO/9 percentile is 90-100
The first filter matches batters who strikeout in at least one-fifth of their at-bats. On any given slate, this will represent the bottom half or so within the category. The second filter matches opposing pitchers who rank within the bottom 10 percent in terms of strikeouts.
Although the overall Plus/Minus is lower than that of other trends I have featured here, the Count is a healthy 13,000-plus, meaning that A) we will probably match players more frequently in the future and B) we can be relatively confident that the overall Plus/Minus is not going to change drastically anytime soon.
Results
The following screenshots are pulled from entries into FanDuel’s guaranteed prize pools throughout the week.
7/25
Martin Perez represented the opposition for the Athletics on Monday. Although Perez’s ground-ball rate over the past year has been an excellent 57 percent, you almost have to try to strike out against him. Perez’s 4.8 SO/9 was the lowest among starting pitchers on this slate.
Perez’s tendencies played right into the hands of Oakland’s power bats. Even though they are prone to whiffing, Valencia, Davis, and Semien each have Isolated Power (ISO) scores above .200 when facing lefties. Oakland’s implied Vegas total entering the game was 4.8 runs, which is generally a decent score, but it ranked only seventh-best on this 11-game slate that featured plenty of offense. All things considered, I thought ownership levels were just about right on Oakland’s power bats. [Editor’s Note: #NailedIt]
7/26
This game featured Mike Pelfrey facing the Red Sox in Fenway Park. You could pretty much see the writing on the Green Monster before the game even started. Although Pelfrey has been effective at inducing ground-ball outs (with his 52 percent GB Rate), Vegas wasn’t buying what he was selling. Boston’s implied run total in this matchup closed at 6.8 runs, which is an absolutely absurd number in a non-Coors Field game.
Many sought out Jackie Bradley Jr. as cheap exposure to Boston’s offense, as his ownership eclipsed that of teammates Mookie Betts (19.5 percent) and David Ortiz (16.6 percent). Pelfrey recorded only one strikeout on the night and the Red Sox collected 13 hits en route to scoring eight runs.
7/27
On Wednesday, the Cubs scored eight runs against Anthony Ranaudo and the White Sox. But the game didn’t play out the way you’d expect. Ranaudo was able to blank the Cubs through six innings before the wheels came off. He gave up three runs (including two homers) and then White Sox highly-regarded prospect Carson Fulmer allowed four runs in a third of an inning.
The box score looks nice, but this game came very close to ruining the nights of Cubs stackers, who were out in abundance based on some of the ownership numbers. The Cubs have several players whose elevated ISO scores come close to matching their elevated SO/AB scores, so I’m generally in favor of stacking them against low-K pitchers. Just know that you will usually have company if you do decide to stack Cubs. Make plans to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
7/28
The Red Sox seemed to have the advantage facing low-K pitcher Jered Weaver last night. However, Weaver did have some things in his favor. First, he’s a fly-ball pitcher who was supported by pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium (88 Park Factor). Secondly, the Red Sox had played in Boston the day before — the last game in a nine-game home-stand — and had literally traveled across the country to face the Angels. There were some clues that this could be a trap game . . . but of course that didn’t keep me and a large portion of the field from rostering the Sox last night.
Review
This is a trend that leads to stacks. I think that in general this is a good way to identify high-ceiling stacks to deploy, but there are some points to consider. Low-K pitchers will likely come with an increased ground-ball or fly-ball rate. For a fly-ball, low-K pitcher, I would have some concerns about stacking hitters in larger ballparks. For a ground-ball, low-K pitcher, I would view poor recent advanced stats for batters — such as a decreased average distance on batted balls or an increased ground-ball rate — as red flags.
