What’s better than setting MLB DFS lineups while watching the opening round of the PGA Championship? Well, probably many things — but it’s still pretty great.
Today’s slate is a split one, but because there are only two day games — starting at 1:10pm ET — we’ll discuss all the games together.
Pitchers
Yesterday’s pitching group definitely left a lot to be desired, but today’s is much better. It is headlined by Marlins righty Jose Fernandez, who is the highest-rated pitcher for both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model, as he usually is when he pitches. Fernandez faces the Cardinals, who are currently implied to score only 2.9 runs. He boasts the highest K Prediction today at 10.1 and is a sizable favorite with -190 moneyline. He also has excellent recent advanced stats, as shown by his exit velocity allowed of 85 miles per hour in his last two starts. He’s a stud:
Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom, only available in the early or all-day slates, has similar Vegas data — the Rockies are implied to score 3.0 runs currently and he’s a similar favorite at -185 — but his K Prediction of 7.3, though still fourth in this slate, is much lower than Fernandez’s mark. His advanced stats are fairly solid as well. In particular, he has induced ground balls at a 50 percent rate in his last two starts. He got run last game against the Marlins, lasting only 3.2 innings and giving up 10 hits and five earned runs, but Vegas seems to think that he’ll bounce back today.
Rostering Johnny Cueto is always an uncertain proposition, as he’s typically expensive and doesn’t have a lot of strikeout upside. That’s usually a bad combination . . .
However, Cueto has shown that he’s just a different type of pitcher:
Also in Cueto’s favor is his Park Factor at home, which is an MLB-best 100 (Fernandez has a Park Factor of 91 today, by the way). Cueto is facing the Nationals, whose projected lineup has a .313 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), but they’re implied to score only 3.2 runs currently. He’s a much better value on FanDuel today, as shown by his 89 percent Bargain Rating and $10,700 price tag there.
David Price has been in awful form lately, allowing a hard-hit rate of 41 percent in his last two games. That has shown in his results, too, as he has allowed a combined 22 hits and eight earned runs in those two outings. He is pitching in a good park today — his Park Factor at Angel Stadium is 88 — and his matchup against the Angels is a good one: Their projected lineup has a low wOBA of .286. The good news for Price is that because of the Red Sox batters he’s a decent -165 favorite despite the Angels’ 3.7 run projection.
If you want to dip a little lower in price, both John Lackey and Zach Davies are options to consider. Their recent advanced stats are a little tough to figure out: They have similar hard-hit rates of 44 and 47 percent, although Davies’ batted-ball distance allowed (187) is much lower than Lackey’s (214). That usually means that one player is inducing more ground balls, but those marks are similar as well.They’re also currently similar favorites: Lackey is at -139 and Davies is at -138.
However, there are a couple stark differences between the two. First, Lackey is facing the White Sox, who are implied to score only 3.0 runs. Davies, meanwhile, is facing the Diamondbacks, who are implied to score 3.7 runs. Lackey’s K Prediction of 6.5 is superior to Davies’ mark of 5.8. Additionally, Lackey is available in the main slate, while Davies plays earlier in the day. Lackey is more expensive — he’s $8,600 at FanDuel and Davies is $7,500 — but the Bales Model currently thinks that he’s worth the extra salary, as shown by his higher rating there.
And, yes, I’m not mentioning Chris Sale for a reason.
Stacks
The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model currently is a straight 1-2-3-4-5 stack of the Brewers:
The Brewers have a high implied run total of 4.6 runs right now and face Arizona lefty Robbie Ray, who has the second-worst WHIP today at 1.567. There is a 56 percent chance of precipitation at game time, so be sure to monitor that on our Lineups page as lock approaches. The Brewers play at 2:10 pm ET, so they’re available only in the early or all-day slates.
If you’re playing the main slate, the top-four highest-rated five-man stacks all belong to the Rangers. This one takes the top spot of those:
The Rangers are currently implied to score a slate-high 5.1 runs and several of their players — Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, and Robinson Chirinos, to be specific — have double-digit Pro Trends at DraftKings.
The Rangers also boast several of the best stacks at FanDuel, but if you’re looking elsewhere then the next highest-rated stack belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox always have a ton of upside, but today that is especially true. They face Angels righty Jered Weaver, who has a slate-worst 1.630 HR/9 mark and got crushed in his last outing by the Astros. Their implied total of 4.9 is only so low because Angel Stadium, as mentioned above, is a pitcher’s park. However, that might not matter tonight if the Red Sox bats get hot, as they often do.
Hitters
Adam Jones is projected to hit leadoff for an Orioles team implied to score 4.9 runs tonight. He faces righty Kyle Gibson and he has excellent splits against RHPs, as shown by his .342 wOBA, .208 Isolated Power (ISO), and .480 slugging percentage. He has hit a ton of fly balls lately (58 percent), although he hasn’t really straightened them out (25 percent hard-hit rate). If that happens, he possesses a ton of upside.
Max Kepler did not get the start last night, which was unfortunate as the Twins put up seven runs. He is projected to bat fifth tonight and remains a great play due to his batting splits versus righties: His .358 wOBA, .295 ISO, and .541 slugging percentage are steals at only $3,200 on FanDuel. Unlike Jones, he does have an excellent hard-hit rate of 42 percent in his last 11 games.
Christian Yelich, projected to bat third for the Marlins, has struggled in his last four games after crushing the world in his seven games prior. He boasts excellent splits: He has an unreal .406 wOBA, .194 ISO, and .535 slugging percentage against righties. He has hit a lot of ground balls lately, as shown by his 52 percent rate in the last 15 days. If he can get those into the air as he did prior to this mini-slump, he can break back out in a big way.
Odubel Herrera is projected to bat second for a Phillies team implied to score only 3.9 runs right now. Combine that with an elevated price tag of $4,900 at DraftKings, and Herrera likely turns into a contrarian option. Like Yelich, he has been reduced to hitting ground balls lately (63 percent), but he does boast a nice .376 wOBA and has stolen base upside, averaging .144 per game in the past year.
Chris Davis is in the slump of all slumps:
However, his long-term splits — .419 wOBA, .351 ISO, and .611 slugging percentage — are elite marks. I get it: He is in a bad park (Park Factor of 19), has awful recent advanced stats (27 percent hard-hit rate), and is still pricey with his $4,100 salary at DraftKings and $4,000 salary at FanDuel. But if you’re a tournament player, Crush coming out of a slump is what you dream of.
Good luck!
