Update: The 7:10pm ET Cardinals-Mets game has been removed from the DraftKings main slate.
Since the Cardinals-Mets game was canceled last night due to weather, they’re playing a double-header today. The first game at 4:10 PM ET is not included at either DraftKings or FanDuel. The 7:10 PM ET game is in both main slates as you’d expect.
Pitchers
This isn’t an incredibly strong pitching group today: The two top-rated starting pitchers in the FanDuel Bales Model currently cost $10,100 and $6,600 in Danny Salazar and Bud Norris. The former is definitely the chalk tonight, despite facing the Washington Nationals. He leads the slate in K Prediction at 7.5, a mark 0.5 higher than second-place Chris Archer. His -151 moneyline isn’t outrageously high, but the Nationals are implied to score only 3.6 runs currently. Further, Salazar’s recent advanced stats are excellent, as highlighted by his batted-ball distance allowed of 191 feet.
Dodgers pitcher Bud Norris will also likely be very high-owned across sites. He’s only $6,300 at DraftKings and, as mentioned above, $6,600 at FD. He faces the Rays, who strike out at a high rate (.280 SO/AB), giving him a K Prediction of 6.0 currently. He has concerning advanced stats — his recent hard-hit rate of 42 percent isn’t ideal — but he’s at least a current -138 favorite and the Rays are implied to score only 3.5 runs. Those are great marks for a pitcher at his price:
Despite having a miserable 1.582 WHIP over the last year, Francisco Liriano rates very highly in models today. That likely has to do with his solid K Prediction of 6.4 and the fact that the opposing Mariners are currently implied to score only 3.8 runs. His advanced stats are a little odd: His batted-ball distance allowed sits at a low 182 feet (good), but his hard-hit rate allowed is 40 percent (bad). His recent ground-ball rate of 76 percent is wonderfully high and probably is unsustainable. The good news is that in this game he’s pitching at home, giving him a really nice 92 Park Factor.
Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks has the same advanced stats dilemma we see with Liriano. He does have a much better WHIP (1.121) than Liriano, although the opposing White Sox are implied to score 4.0 runs currently. He has a lower K Prediction (5.8) and Park Factor (42) as well, although he does have umpire Hal Gibson III behind home plate, who has historically added 1.6 FD points over expectations to pitchers. Liriano’s discount across sites is what gives him a slight edge in the models.
Marcus Stroman is always an interesting play for one reason: He pitches for the Toronto Blue Jays. He doesn’t have a great WHIP (1.305), SO/9 rate (6.645), K Prediction (5.3), or Park Factor (37). However, because the Padres are implied to score only 3.7 runs and the Blue Jays are implied to score 5.3 currently, he boasts a massive -240 moneyline. Pitchers with those marks have historically been incredibly valuable and consistent:
Stacks
If you’re playing on DraftKings tonight, the top-rated five-man stack currently is a 1-2-3-5-6 stack of the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore is implied to score 5.5 runs right now and is facing Chad Bettis, who has a below-average 1.493 WHIP. The Orioles have several hitters who crush righties — Chris Davis headlines with his ridiculous .349 Isolated Power (ISO) versus RHP. It also doesn’t hurt that the best Park Factor Rating for hitters in the slate belongs to lefties at Camden Park.
On FanDuel, the top-three stacks belong to the Boston Red Sox. The top one is this . . .
. . . Although the second-highest FD stack is this one, which takes a fairly large dip in total Bales Model rating but is much cheaper.
The second stack costs a combined $13,400 in salary, whereas the first one will run you $15,700.
In last week’s podcast on $3 DK Moonshot strategy, we discussed the strategy of taking Hanley Ramirez (1B eligibility) instead of David Ortiz (also 1B eligibility). You can roster only one, and you can take the much lower-owned player in Ramirez and still get exposure to the upside of the Red Sox’s slate-high 6.6 runs. Ortiz is a monster and could — likely will, in fact — outscore Ramirez, but in a volatile game like MLB DFS it’s a worthwhile strategy to employ.
An intriguing contrarian stack on FanDuel is a 2-3-4-7 stack of the Mets. They actually boast the highest average ISO of four-man combinations, with an average of .280 against left-handed pitchers. They have a low implied total of 3.7 runs and are facing Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia, but there is definitely upside here.
Hitters
The Rangers put up seven runs last night and are currently implied to score 4.9 today. Their Nos. 1-2 hitters, Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara, are only $2,300 and $2,800 on FanDuel. Ian Desmond is expensive and hurts their overall Team Value Rating, but the rest of their lineup is cheap and could be a very intriguing stack.
Honestly, there are hitters galore in this slate. There’s a pretty obvious correlation between a subpar pitching slate and a nice hitting slate. That’s apparent today. In fact, there are a whopping 14 teams currently implied to score 4.5 runs or more. That’s kind of silly.
One of those teams is the Rangers’ opponent, the Athletics, currently implied to score 5.1 runs. Rangers pitcher Nick Martinez has the second-worst HR/9 mark in the slate at 1.841, giving the A’s power hitters a lot of upside in this matchup. Khris Davis, projected to bat cleanup, is definitely an option, given his .268 ISO versus right-handed pitchers (he’s a negative splits guy). Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt, and Coco Crisp also rate very highly in the Bales Model today.
The Diamondbacks are also implied to score lots of runs — 4.8 currently, to be exact. Jake Lamb boasts a .263 ISO and .560 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers and faces Matt Garza and his awful 1.762 WHIP, second-worst in the slate. Jean Segura is projected to bat leadoff and offers stolen base upside with his .174 SB/G mark, a sneaky way to accumulate ‘unexpected’ production in MLB GPPs.
Although the Orioles boast many of the top DraftKings stacks, it is actually the Royals and Giants who boast superior Team Value Ratings, currently at 89 and 90. Many of their players are very cheap despite having high Vegas upside; for example, Cheslor Cuthbert is projected to hit second for the Royals, is only $3,400, and boasts 11 DK Pro Trends. Alcides Escobar is projected to lead off for the Royals and is even cheaper at $2,400.
This slate offers a huge number of high-powered offenses, suggesting that you should spread out exposure a little more than usual. And given the decent cheap pitching options like Bud Norris at only $6,600 on FD, it is the perfect time to load up on bats.
Good luck today!
