A plethora of day games welcomes high temperatures and rain throughout the slate. Seven of the games are projected for 90-degree weather at first pitch, and two of the five cities currently projected for 47 percent precipitation lack a retractable roof.
Be sure to check out our Player Models and Lineups page for updates.
Pitchers
Only three teams are currently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, indicating lackluster pitching options and a heatwave that will ravage my electric bill. Additionally, most of the games feature umpires who aren’t particular friendly toward pitchers.
Kluber or Lester?
Jon Lester and Corey Kluber are the highest-rated and most expensive pitchers in the slate. Their stats in the dynamic Player Models are very similar in most categories, and in DraftKings tournaments they could potentially be rostered together in some contrarian lineups. But there are some major differences between them too.
Kluber’s recent form dwarfs Lester’s. Kluber has notched at least six strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 starts, whereas Lester has failed to strike out more than four batters in his last four starts. Lester should benefit today from his matchup, as the Brewers’ projected lineup has a slate-worst 0.299 SO/AB — but even with that advantage Kluber still has the superior K Prediction of the two, 7.8 to 7.0
Per our Trends tool, Lester has a -4.89 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in road games this season — and he also has 60 percent Consistency. Three negative outings have demolished his road Plus/Minus, but more often than not he has actually met his salary-based expectations. It’s just that, when he comes up short, he does so in a big way.
Also, Lester has failed recently to take advantage of a lineup with a terrible SO/AB. Two starts ago, Lester recorded only three strikeouts in three innings against a Pirates team with a slate-worst 0.332 SO/AB.
Kluber is the most expensive option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s not that much more expensive than Lester and his ability to produce strikeouts consistently gives him the edge.
The Field
Lester’s opposing starter, right-handed pitcher Junior Guerra, has the third best WHIP (1.084) on the slate, behind Kluber and Lester, and his recent advanced stats are favorable. He’s facing a Cubs team with a projected lineup that has the slate’s third-highest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) t0day at .330, but Guerra’s 57 percent recent ground-ball rate and 185-foot recent batted-ball distance suggest that he won’t be tagged hard when the Cubs do get hits. Additionally, his recent velocity increase of 1.1 miles per hour could help him replicate his 11-strikeout performance against the Cubs earlier this season.
Vincent Velasquez boasts a slate-high 8.3 K Prediction. He has recorded more than eight strikeouts only three times all season, and in the 11 times that his K Prediction has exceeded 7.6 he has returned a -2.09 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and -0.91 Plus/Minus on FanDuel as the result of being priced too high. Velasquez is the fifth-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($10,000), and his win potential is limited by the Phillies’ +140 moneyline and the threat of light rain. On the positive side, the Phillies pitcher has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight outings since being pulled from a start in early June due to right bicep soreness. His slate-high 10.588 SO/9 and 93 Park Factor should play well in tournaments.
Scott Kazmir is only the fourth pitcher predicted to strike out at least seven batters today. The Dodgers are currently -138 moneyline favorites against the Cardinals, and because Kazmir is playing in the lone night game his ownership may be curbed. The Cardinals did rest a few of their starters in Saturday’s game after playing 16 innings the night before. Tonight, the Cardinals are expected to be at full strength, which isn’t great for Kazmir, but Stephen Piscotty and Greg Garcia are the only hitters in said lineup with positive wOBA and ISO splits, setting the table for Kazmir to provide value.
The Colorado Rockies are currently implied to score 7.3 runs, and the Boston Red Sox are right behind them at 5.9, making Tyler Chatwood (-210) and Rick Porcello (-195) two of the most likely pitchers to earn victories. Chatwood’s 5.579 SO/9 and his opponent’s 0.206 SO/AB have combined to form an abhorrent 2.1 K Prediction — but a win is a win, especially on FanDuel. Porcello is 12-2 and has a +5.23 Plus/Minus with 63.2 percent Consistency on FanDuel. With 41.5 FanDuel points per game over the last month, he trails only Vincent Velasquez. Porcello’s average run support of 6.32 runs per game strengthens his case, even if his recent advanced stats are brutal.
Stacks
When teams are implied to score at least 4.0, we begin to see hitters consistently produce a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate offers a lot of options for stacking. The Rockies own every top stack variation in the CSURAM88 Model. Rather than harp on their 7.3 implied runs, I’ll shift focus elsewhere.
Generating stacks on DraftKings based on Pro Trends is one option to expand your lineup construction. Based on five-man units, the Royals own three of the top four Pro Trend stacks.
The Royals are implied to score 4.7 runs and the heart of their order is littered with double-digit Pro Trend hitters. Because the pitchers on the slate carry depressed upside, ownership totals will likely be high for the teams implied to score more than five runs. The presented Royals five-man stack is a cheap alternative that won’t limit your pitching options.
Three of the top four-man stacks in FanDuel using the CSURAM88 model belong to the Rockies. The outlier hails from Toronto, a team currently implied to score 5.5 runs. It’s also more than $2,000 cheaper than the top stack.
All four hitters possess positive wOBA splits against left-handed pitchers, and opposing starter Wade Miley has middle-of-the-pack numbers on a slate with mediocre pitching. Although the stack is a cheap alternative, it will barely allow you a chance at a pitcher in the $8,000 range.
Hitters
There’s a solid chance that David Ortiz will rest today. This is reflected in the projected lineups and player models. Mookie Betts (knee) may also miss his second straight game, and yet the Red Sox are currently implied to score 5.9 runs against the Twins. This game features the top two teams in wOBA, but many of the Twins’ projected hitters exhibit negative wOBA differentials. Given that they are playing the Red Sox and are facing a pitcher whose handedness is less than ideal for them, the Twins might be rostered in fewer lineups than their slate-high .368 wOBA deserves. That disconnect can be used to your advantage.
It is Kevin Pillar’s bobblehead day. Based on curated data, bobblehead hitters have provided a +1.49 Plus/Minus on 50.4 percent Consistency on DraftKings and +1.69 Plus/Minus with 46.5 percent Consistency on FanDuel. Pillar has one extra-base hit in July, and the bobblehead accentuates his defensive prowess — complete with cape as he skies the warning track. The Blue Jays are currently implied to score 5.5 runs, and if you’re looking for a cheap outfielder coasting on Narrative Street, (I guess?) Pillar is your man.
Giancarlo Stanton will face a left-handed pitcher in the Mets’ Steven Matz today. Such a matchup has historically resulted in a +2.44 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +1.96 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 50 percent Consistency. His season-long slump has not negatively affected his ability to produce value against left-handed hitters. Rather, it has made it easier by reducing his salary to $4,100 on DraftKings and $3,000 on FanDuel. In both instances, it’s only the fourth time in our data base that his price has dipped that low when facing a left-handed pitcher.
The freefall is nearly complete for Miguel Cabrera. For the first time in our database, he cost $3,000 on DraftKings. Because the Tigers are facing a left-handed pitcher, Cabrera sports the second-lowest slugging percentage in the Tigers’ projected lineup. Over the past 15 days, Cabrera has hit a ground-ball 60 percent of the time. Choosing Cabrera over the cavalcade of $5,000 first basemen can help your salary cap situation, but his upside is really limited.
Chris Davis costs $2,700 on FanDuel for the first time since August of 2014. His salary on DraftKings ($3,200) is the lowest recorded since the 2014 season. The potential exclusion of David Ortiz from the slate and Davis’ penchant for crushing right-handed pitchers, especially at Camden Yards, shifts Davis above Cabrera in the cheap first-basemen department.
The last time the Brewers faced Lester, they swiped five bases. Look to Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun, both of whom have a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. They have some major potential to pilfer some bases.
Weather
Expect scattered rain all afternoon in Colorado. It’s the one game that could be delayed, and the rain is expected to bleed into the evening. The Rockies won’t host the Braves the rest of the season and they share three off days, so there is incentive to complete the game. When the game starts and how many innings it lasts is beyond me.
