Baseball slows down a bit today with only nine games total — two early in the day and seven in the 7:05 PM ET main slate. We’ll just group all the games together for this breakdown.
Pitchers
In a DFS desert of starting pitchers, Stephen Strasburg is a well of water. He’s expensive — $13,300 on DraftKings and $11,500 on FanDuel — but his salaries are very warranted: His rating for the FanDuel Bales Model is currently almost 20 points higher than that of any other pitcher. He’s the clear-cut option and no one else is close.
This is mostly reflected in Strasburg’s K Prediction: His 9.1 is way higher than the second-highest mark (Jerad Eickhoff at 6.7). He is also facing the Dodgers, whose projected starting lineup has the lowest Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of any team today at .259. Per our advanced data, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 184 feet recently. Don’t be scared of his high salary: He’s worth it.
Unfortunately — and this is a big unfortunately — he’s available only in the early and all-day slates.
While Adam Wainwright has nowhere near the K upside Strasburg has — his K Prediction currently sits at a lowly 5.0 — the opposing Padres have an implied Vegas run total lower than the Dodgers. Wainwright is also the heaviest favorite right now with a -220 moneyline. Further, he has allowed a recent batted-ball exit velocity of only 89 miles per hour, which is only one MPH faster (or worse) than Strasburg’s mark. If you’re playing in the main slate, Wainwright is the guy.
I know, Francisco Liriano isn’t good. But hear me out: He is facing the Brewers. Liriano’s struggles are evidenced by his awful 1.596 WHIP, but Vegas believes that the Brewers won’t be able to take advantage, as they’re implied for only 3.7 runs currently. His 6.6 K Prediction isn’t amazing in comparison to Strasburg’s, but that’s not a very fair comparison given that Liriano is nearly half the price of Strasburg at DraftKings. He definitely doesn’t bring a lot of safety, but as a second pitcher for DK tournaments in the all-day slate Liriano affords the flexibility to load up on both Strasburg and elite bats.
Although Steven Wright ($9,500 at FD) and Sonny Gray ($7,700) are far apart in salaries, they’re fairly comparable today. Wright has the slightly higher K Prediction — 6.0 versus 5.1 — but Gray has a higher Park Factor at 83. Gray’s opponent is implied to score fewer runs — 3.8 versus 4.1 — but Wright is the heavier favorite at -203, given the Red Sox’s potent offense. It’s intriguing that, even though Wright is more expensive, he has allowed a recent batted-ball distance of 215 feet, whereas Gray has allowed 193 feet.
Stacks
This is probably (not) shocking: The top-rated stack in the DraftKings Bales Model belongs to the Rockies, since they’re implied to score a day-high 6.8 runs currently:
And if you’re all about Coors field, here’s the top FanDuel stack for the Braves:
Today is interesting in that there are two non-Coors teams currently implied to score more runs than the Coors-fueled Braves: The Red Sox and White Sox. In fact, the top-overall non-Rockies FD stack features the White Sox:
Given the inexpensiveness of the Chicago stack — the $12,300 combined salary is much lower than what you’d pay for the Rockies, Braves, and Red Sox stacks — the White Sox potentially offer the most optimal cash-game and tournament stack, given that they allow you to fit Strasburg into your all-day lineup.
Other Hitters
Speaking of the White Sox: Adam Eaton is currently the second highest-rated starting player in the FD Bales Model, behind only Carlos Gonzalez. Eaton is basically a no-splits guys as a lefty, which is rare: He has a .353 wOBA, .154 Isolated Power (ISO), and .438 slugging percentage versus righties. He also has stolen base potential, as he has averaged .150 SB/G in the last year. Most importantly, though, is that he faces Mike Pelfrey, who has the day’s worst WHIP at 1.736.
Although not mentioned in the stacking section, the Cardinals are currently implied to score 5.2 runs, tied with the Braves. Aledmys Diaz, projected to hit second for the Cardinals, has excellent batting marks: He boasts a .403 wOBA, .243 ISO, and .562 slugging percentage against righties. He has a recent 40 percent hard-hit rate, which surpasses his yearly average by eight points. He also has at least nine Pro Trends at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Also, I’m not mentioning Rockies batters because they’re painfully obvious when they play at home — but play them if you can afford to do so. They’re implied to score the most runs (6.8 currently) and are facing Atlanta righty Michael Foltynewicz, who gives up home runs like [insert inappropriate simile here]. [Editor’s Note: That what (s)he said.] His HR/9 mark of 2.113 is so much higher than second-place James Shields‘ 1.502. All signs point to a lot of Rockies home runs.
Like the Coors Field guys, David Ortiz is almost too obvious to mention, but the dude has a 61 percent hard-hit rate in his last four games. He’s always an option against righties, as he has a .472 wOBA, .395 ISO, and .734 slugging percentage against them. He also leads both sites with Pro Trends currently. He’s a boring play, but boring is good if it brings home runs and wins you money.
Speaking of older superstars: Miguel Cabrera has a .388 wOBA, .207 ISO, and .522 slugging percentage against righties. He has also been hitting the ball very well lately, as shown by his recent batted-ball distance of 240 feet. Remember when I mentioned James Shields and all the home runs he has allowed in the last year? Yeah, Miggy faces him today in a batter’s park.
Finally, Odubel Herrera is an intriguing play, as he’s projected to hit leadoff for a Phillies team currently implied to score 4.3 runs. He faces Tom Koehler, who doesn’t allow a ton of home runs but does allow a ton of walks and hits, as shown by his awful 1.608 WHIP. Herrera has a recent hard-hit rate of 42 percent and other solid advanced metrics. Perhaps Herrera can be a nice plug-and-play option in cash games.
Good luck!
