Hey. Let’s break down some baseball.
Pitchers
I often talk about the importance of price sensitivity across DraftKings and FanDuel, and that is especially true today. There are a variety of great pitchers to choose from, but their price points significantly differ across the two sites. As such, we’ll roll with our color code today: Players with a high Bargain Rating at FanDuel will be green and players with a high Bargain Rating at DraftKings will be red.
Jose Fernandez has about everything today you’d want in an MLB DFS pitcher: He has an elite WHIP (1.095) and unspeakably high K Prediction (10.8). The opponent Phillies are implied for only 2.9 runs currently, and he’s the heaviest favorite with a -197 moneyline. He also has a recent batted-ball distance allowed of 155 feet. That last one is ridiculous. In our Trends database, there have been only 35 pitchers historically with that mark or better. And they’ve done alright . . .
And the number of pitchers who have even had a comparable K Prediction is sadly small . . .
Unfortunately, I can’t combine those filters into a single trend, because . . .
Chris Sale is currently the highest-rated FD pitcher in the Bales Model, mostly because of the price discount you get dropping from Fernandez ($12,000) to Sale ($10,900). He is also pitching in a better park: The Park Factor Rating for Safeco Field is currently 73. However, there are some worrisome marks on his resume: The Mariners currently have an implied Vegas total of 3.5 runs (0.6 higher than Fernandez’s opponent), and Sale is also favored by a much smaller amount (-136). And he allowed a high hard-hit rate of 47 percent in his last outing.
Jon Lester, pitching against the Mets tonight, is currently the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model for DraftKings. He actually has a higher K Prediction (7.4), better opponent run total (3.4), and is a heavier favorite (-147) than Sale right now. But he also has concerning advanced stats, as his batted-ball distance allowed in his last two starts sits at a high 243 feet. However, given that they have very similar pros and cons tonight, Lester is arguably the better option across sites due to his price discount.
It’s hard to say Corey Kluber has limited upside (I still vividly remember his 18-strikeout game last year), but with his low 6.7 K Prediction for tonight currently measured against his high $11,900 DraftKings price tag it’s hard to justify him over the options already mentioned. A month ago against the Royals — his opponent again today — he did go six innings without an earned run. However, he got only six strikeouts, which is indicative of his issue tonight: The Royals just don’t strike out enough to give pitchers high ceilings.
Speaking of low K upside: Mike Leake is an intriguing bargain pitcher for tonight. He is facing the Padres, who are currently implied to score only 3.7 runs, a very respectable mark in this slate (from a pitcher’s perspective). More importantly, he’s pitching at home in Busch Stadium, which is reflected by his high 81 Park Factor Rating. His advanced stats are incredible recently, too: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 182 feet in his last two starts. That’s not Jose Fernandez-level good, but for $6,900 at FanDuel, you could do much worse.
Stacks
Note: There are several games with potentially risky weather. Check our Lineups page for more information as we get closer to lineup lock.
We’re back at Coors Field again, so it should be no surprise that the highest-rated FD stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Rockies. What’s interesting, though, is the order: Their projected 2-3-5-6 stack is currently the top-rated one.
If you’re #TeamFadeCoors, a Baltimore Orioles stack actually takes the top spot currently at DraftKings:
And perhaps going with the Orioles would be a great strategy tonight: The Orioles stack, even with a higher rating, will certainly be less owned in tournaments and is also $2,200 cheaper as a whole.
There are a lot of really high totals tonight, which will provide for a ton of viable stack options: The Tigers, Reds, Cardinals, Rays, and Rockies are all currently implied for at least 4.9 runs.
Tonight will come down to balancing stack upside with the ability to roster the aces mentioned above. A great way to do this is to use our Team Value Rating, which measures a team’s collective salary versus its implied Vegas run total. If a team had all minimum-priced players but were implied to score seven runs, they would have a ridiculously-high Team Value Rating.
The highest TVR at DK currently belongs to the Tigers at 88. And this is reflected in our Stacking tool as well: Although the top-rated Tigers stack at DK right now (310.5) is lower than the top-rated Rockies stack (339.4), you do get a discount of $4,300. That is the difference between Jon Lester and near minimum-priced Matt Boyd.
This isn’t groundbreaking, I know: Juggling price and upside is literally what DFS is, but I did want to point out how to go about doing that in an efficient way using the FantasyLabs tools.
Other Hitters
Adam Duvall will be mentioned in this breakdown as long as FanDuel keeps pricing him down. His low $3,100 salary there does not match up to his Weighted On-Base Average (.356), Isolated Power (.314), slugging percentage (.560), current Pro Trends (10), or hard-hit rate (50 percent). He faces Matt Wisler today, who has a 1.418 WHIP over the last year.
We’ve obviously mentioned the Rockies, but we haven’t talked about their opponent, the Rays, who are currently implied for 5.2 runs. Evan Longoria is coming off a multi-HR game yesterday, but it is actually Logan Forsythe who boasts the higher wOBA (.442), ISO (.256), and slugging percentage (.667) versus left-handed pitchers. Forsythe is also $300 cheaper on FD, despite the better stats.
Lefties do well at Yankee Stadium, as if Chris Davis needed any more help. He boasts an incredibly high .367 ISO versus right-handed pitchers, the highest mark for all projected starting batters in tonight’s slate. He faces Ivan Nova, who has bad marks all around. His 1.426 WHIP and 1.542 HR/9 rates are both bottom-six marks.
Speaking of a high home run rate: Eduardo Nunez is projected to hit first for the Minnesota Twins tonight. He will face Matt Boyd, who has allowed 1.861 HR/9 in the last year, easily the worst mark of all pitchers tonight. Boyd’s weakness matches up well with Nunez’s strength, as he has a .223 ISO and .524 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. He also has dual eligibility at DK, which could help with lineup differentiation.
On the cheaper end of things, Didi Gregorius is another lefty at Yankee Stadium. He is projected to hit sixth for the Yankees, who are currently implied for 4.5 runs. Gregorius doesn’t have the best splits in the world — his 0.175 ISO is on the lower end in that lineup — but he does boast a nice 34 percent recent hard-hit rate and is in a good park situation.
Good luck tonight!
