In the MLB DFS Recent Form Report, we create trends with filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or whose production has been exceeding or falling short of expectations.
The MLB DFS Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Pitchers
Cubs Aren’t Supposed to Hibernate
Jon Lester is not pitching well. In his last two games he has given up five home runs and totaled negative 11 FanDuel points. That’s a total of negative 11. He has given up nine home runs in his last five starts. So what’s up with Lester?
Lester has seen substantial increases in all of his recent advanced stats. His average batted-ball distance allowed has increased by 48 feet, his hard-hit percentage allowed has climbed by 45 points, and his batted-ball exit velocity has risen four miles per hour. Also on the rise is his fly-ball rate, which is up by 13 points to 45 percent, hence the recent barrage of home runs allowed.
Pitchers who have experienced comparable advanced differentials have been smoked to the tune of a -7.97 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
But as we have seen previously with pitchers like Jake Arrieta, recent differential increases in metrics that were originally awesome doesn’t always mean imminent disaster. So let’s examine Lester’s 15-day averages to see if we get some encouraging results.
Lester’s current 15-day average for hard-hit rate allowed is 45 percent, his exit velocity is 93 MPH, and his fly-ball rate is 45 percent.
Pitchers with comparable recent metrics have met or exceeded salary-based expectations only 38.9 percent of the time and have a -5.35 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. I fail to be encouraged.
Even though Lester’s salary has decreased by $1,500 on FanDuel in the past month, his current Bargain Rating on the site is only 40 percent. The data suggests that it might be best to let this sleeping cub lie.
Silver Bullet
Tyler Anderson pitches for the Rockies, and he’s often wiped off the DFS radar because he’s pitching in Coors Field. So you may not have noticed that he has averaged 30.5 FanDuel points in his last four starts.
Anderson has some sharp-looking recent metrics. His average batted-ball distance allowed is 175 feet and his exit velocity is 87 MPH. He’s inducing ground balls at a 64 percent clip, which contributes to his 2.62-second batted-ball air time.
Pitchers with similar 15-day averages have produced a +5.30 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 69.2 percent Consistency.
Anderson pitches in Coors Field tonight. In the last four starts Anderson has made in Coors Field with a comparable recent ground-ball percentage, he has averaged 35.25 FanDuel points per game. In each of those four starts he exceeded salary-based expectations with an average Plus/Minus of +12.22.
Batters
Don’t Call Me Mike
Maybe you didn’t hear about it, you been away a long time, they didn’t go up there and tell ya. Giancarlo Stanton don’t shine shoes anymore. Actually he never shined shoes that I’m aware of, but he looked like a person who should be shining shoes rather than hitting baseballs for a large chunk of the first half of the season.
But Stanton has come to life recently. Before he stole the show at the Home Run Derby, Stanton was smashing balls into outer space in regular season games, launching five home runs in as many games before the All-Star Break.
Stanton has both a recent hard-hit and fly-ball rate of 63 percent. His exit velocity has climbed up to 98 MPH and his 15-day average batted-ball distance sits at a robust 274 feet.
Batters crushing the ball with similar recent metrics have traditionally yielded a +3.02 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 60.7 percent Consistency.
Stanton has increased his points per game on FanDuel by 4.4 points in the last month and has seen his salary increase by $700. Despite the increase, Stanton retains a 76 percent Bargain Rating on the site. Feel free to let Giancarlo flex his muscles in your lineups.
Gigante
Jose Altuve has seen precipitous drops in all of his recent advanced data.
His recent average batted-ball distance has decreased by a very significant 52 feet, and while that might not be a problem for a speedy singles hitter like Altuve, it’s not just the distance that is diminishing.
Altuve’s recent hard-hit percentage has also decreased by 10 points, and his exit velocity has lost four MPH. Moreover, his ground-ball percentage has increased by 19 points and his line drive percentage has dropped eight points.
But here’s the interesting thing: Players with comparable negative 15-day differentials have historically managed to produce a +1.36 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Even with his bad recent form, our Trends tool suggests that Altuve is probably not playing as poorly as his price point would have us believe.
Altuve’s salary has decreased by $500 and he currently holds a 95 Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Bizarrely enough, Altuve just might be a player to roster cautiously.
