At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available for those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our Trend of the Day series features articles that each weekday walk subscribers through an important trend, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Models.
MLB Trend of the Day: Cheap Hitters With a Low WOBA Split but High Vegas Total
Some of the first things a lot of DFS players look at when selecting batters are Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) splits and batting order. Guys high in both are typically the best values.
But can we find contrarian value in players that are the exact opposite? What happens when cheap hitters with low wOBA splits and hitting in the bottom third of the order are blessed with a high Vegas-implied run total?
Let’s find out.
Step 1: Trends > Stat Split Filters > wOBA Split > 0 to .290
I’m setting the range in Stat Split Filters for wOBA split to a maximum of .290. Historically, batters with splits no higher than .290 have not been valuable, yielding a -0.43 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Step 2: Player Filters > Lineup Order > 7 to 9
Placing our low-wOBA batters in the bottom third of the order causes our Plus/Minus to plummet all the way down to -0.92. Things don’t look good for our hitters right now.
Step 3: Player Filters > Salary > 0 to 2900
Targeting low-wOBA hitters in the bottom third of the order that are also expensive would not be intelligently contrarian. So let’s set the maximum salary for these bad hitters at $2,900. Making our hitters cheap is a slight improvement, but the Plus/Minus is still very negative.
Step 4: Vegas Filters > Runs > 4.6 and higher
Now let’s put these cheap, bad hitters in games that Vegas projects their team will score at least 4.6 runs. Making this change causes a drastic shift in the Plus/Minus, bringing it up from a negative number to +0.11.
Current Matches
There are currently 14 player matches for today that you can see in the “Current Matches” tab of the trend screen.
Note: Our Player Models update in real time to give subscribers the most accurate information available. As Vegas totals change, the current player matches may also change after this article is published.
