The Open Championship
Due to severe flooding in West Virginia, the PGA Tour canceled last week’s Greenbrier Classic but returns this week for its third of four yearly Major Championships. This week’s event, The Open Championship, is being held at Royal Troon GC, which is a Par-71 course that plays just shy of 7,200 yards. The field of 156 features some of the best golfers in the world. Accuracy will likely be at a premium, but inclement weather could offer some value to bombers. Be sure to check the weather forecast Wednesday night to make any necessary adjustments to your lineups.
Similar to the U.S. Open, this Major rotates courses each year. This throws course history out the window, but at least the rotating courses used for The Open have similarities. Most of them are links-style courses that are often plagued with windy and sometimes rainy conditions. Looking at tournament history could paint a picture of which type of player excels under these conditions, but I will not be weighting ‘tournament history’ as heavily as I would weight course history on a normal week.
Tournament History
Here is a look at the top-25 finishers from the past five Open Championships.
Now, here is a look at which golfers have finished among the top-25 in three of the past five years.
Again, I would not give any player a bump on account of event history, but it is worth looking at to see if it can point us to a player we may have otherwise missed. Let’s start breaking down some players to see if any of these names make an appearance.
Player Breakdown
$9,000 – $12,300
Dustin Johnson ($12,000) is coming into this event in exceptional form, with back-to-back wins and four consecutive top-five finishes. Through his last four tournaments he has driven the ball an average of 320.3 yards and managed to hit 70.8 percent of his Greens in Regulation (GIR). Although all of this is great, none of it is a secret and it will likely result in DJ’s being one of the most popular picks of the week. In large-field tournaments, such as the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, fading Johnson is a strategy worth considering, but his 94 percent Consistency through his last 19 events speaks loudly of his cash-game eligibility.
Sergio Garcia ($10,000) has two top-five finishes and one victory through his last three events. His two top-five finishes came despite averaging 30.5 Putts per Round (PPR) through those two events. He was able to earn his recent victory when he brought that average down to 28 for the Byron Nelson Championship. He is an incredibly accurate player, as shown in his Long-Term (LT) GIR of 70.8 percent, which is top-eight in the field, and he has shown that all he needs to take down a tournament is to catch a hot putter. Although there is a premium placed on accuracy, his LT Driving Distance (DD) of 301.2 yards will assist in some of the longer holes, which should play a part in this week’s event, as the course length could be misleading.
Henrik Stenson ($9,500) trails only Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day with an average of 16.2 course and field-adjusted birdies per tournament. Stenson’s missed cut at The Players and early withdrawal (prior to certainly missing the cut) at the U.S. Open likely still sting if you rostered him on those occasions, but his LT Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) of 68.2 suggests that those instances are not commonplace.
Since withdrawing from the U.S. Open, Stenson has returned to form by winning the BMW International Open and finishing 13th at last week’s Scottish Open. The concern surrounding Stenson would be that he has averaged 31.1 PPR through his last four events, but he at least leads all players priced above $9,000 with both a 74.3 percent LT GIR and 70.9 percent Driving Accuracy (DA). Still, a putter as cold as his significantly decreases Stenson’s safety and warrants excluding him from cash-game eligibility.
$7,000 – $8,900
Bubba Watson ($8,000) has seen a drastic Salary Change, which is a common occurrence in PGA DFS, but his is noteworthy. Bubba has averaged 10.72 points above his salary-based expectations, and his 70.5 percent Consistency is the third-highest of any player with at least 20 events in our database. Bubba presents a rare opportunity to roster someone who has consistently performed above his salary-based expectation at what is tied for his lowest salary to date.
On a course that should demand accuracy from the tee, Watson’s Recent DA of 45.2 percent is alarming, but he has still managed to hit 62 percent GIR lately. There are several narratives that surround Bubba, with one (that I admittedly buy into) being that he tends to check out of tournaments mentally if he isn’t doing well. Even if that is true, he apparently doesn’t check out until the weekend, because he has missed the cut only three times in his last 32 events. Of course, Bubba has missed the cut in each of the last two Open Championships, but that is not something that I plan on letting play into my decision-making process this week.
The only person within this range of salaries who has a LT missed-cut percentage lower than Bubba Watson’s is Matt Kuchar ($7,800), who is coming into this event on a streak of nine consecutive cuts made. Kuch has hit 66.8 percent GIR and 64.4 percent of his fairways in regulation through his last 39 events and has made it past the cut on 37 of those occasions. His Recent Adj Rd Score of 67.6 through his last three events is a full stroke better than his LT average, despite averaging an additional PPR during that time. Kuchar is often a popular option, in large part to his his cut-making ability, and this marks only the third time that DFS players have been able to roster him below $8,000.
Jim Furyk ($7,700) has now played in seven events since returning from injury, and after a shaky return he has managed to put together four straight made cuts, including a second-place finish at this year’s U.S. Open. Through those four events, he has hit 67.7 percent GIR and 62.1 percent of his fairways in regulation. His average LT DD of only 280.2 yards could hinder him on some of the longer Par-4 holes, but his ball-striking has always made up for his lack of power, as shown in his LT Adj Rd Score of 68.1, which trails only Matt Kuchar’s score among players priced below $8,000.
$5,200 – $6,900
Brendan Steele ($6,100) currently leads all golfers priced below $7,000 with 11 Pro Trends, and his LT Adj Rd Score of 69.4 is fourth among such players. His LT PPR average of 29.7 leaves a lot to be desired, but the fact that he hits 69.1 percent GIR makes a lot of those two putts for par rather than bogey. The strong field shouldn’t be an issue for Steele, as his last four events have collectively featured a field strength of 92.3 percent, and his Adj Rd Score of 68.2 during that time is 1.2 strokes better than his LT average.
Daniel Summerhays ($5,800) is $400 cheaper than he was when he finished eighth at the U.S. Open, and he has shown himself to be another player who is consistently underpriced on DraftKings. Through 67 events, he has averaged 9.56 points above his salary-based expectations, failing to reach that expectation in only 15 of those events. His form is solid as well, as shown in a Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.0 and a 67.6 percent GIR through his last three events. He is hitting more greens but has also added 0.7 PPR to his game. He has the potential to be an excellent play if his PPR can come down toward his LT average of 28.6.
(Almost) A Year Removed
I am going to leave you with a highlight video of last year’s Open Championship. Not only did it feature an exciting final round, but it is funny to see how much has changed in almost a year. To think that Day and Spieth were only a putt away from forcing what would have been a five-man playoff is unreal. Hopefully we can get some of that same drama this year.
Good Luck!
