For the final event of the Florida swing, the PGA TOUR is hosting the Valspar Championship. This event will be played at the Copperhead Course (par 71, 7,352 yards, POA Trivialis greens) of the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, which has been the only venue to host the Valspar since the tournament was added to the annual PGA TOUR schedule in 2000. Last year, Peter Malanti (-12) won by two shots. This is a field of 156 players, and following the first two rounds, there will be a standard top 65 and ties cut.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The CliffsNotes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300)
Fleetwood has flourished at the Copperhead Course, finishing T16th and T3rd in his two starts at the tricky Florida track. The Englishman has shot under par in seven of these eight rounds and ranks first in Strokes Gained per round at the Copperhead Course among the players in this week’s field that have competed at the par 71 more than once. Evident from these results, Fleetwood is a perfect match for this second-shot venue. The 34-year-old ranks second in SG: Approach this season, and three of the past five winners at the Copperhead Course have finished the event top-seven in this metric. Fleetwood is the No. 1 option for the Valspar Championship, but he is only the third-most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week.
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DraftKings $9,000 Range
Corey Conners ($9,600)
Conners is in brilliant form and continues to be a must-play for cash games. The Canadian has been awesome during the Florida swing, finishing T3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T6th at THE PLAYERS Championship the last two weeks. Conners gained strokes in every major category at both these events, and he shot under par in all eight of these rounds. Both these tournaments were played at Florida courses that require elite ball striking, just like the Copperhead Course, and in Conners’ lone start at the par 71, he finished T21 in 2021. Conners ranks 11 spots higher in the world golf rankings this time around, and he is a strong bet for his fourth top-10 finish of the season.
Shane Lowry ($9,400)
Just like Conners, Lowry is playing tremendous golf, and the Irishman continues to be one of the safest plays on the board. During the Florida swing, Lowry has finished T11th, T7th, and T20th, while ranking top-15 in SG: Approach at all three of these tournaments. Overall, the former Open Championship winner has finished inside the top 20 in 10 of his past 12 starts worldwide. Lowry finished T12th in his last visit to the Copperhead Course, and he should have a similar outing this week.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Taylor Moore ($8,600)
Moore has made six straight cuts with three top-25 finishes during this streak, and he has been outstanding at the Copperhead Course. Moore won the 2023 Valspar Championship, and then he finished T12th last year in his title defense. Moore ranks fifth in par-5 performance this season, and he should add another high finish to his resume at the Copperhead Course this week. Of the last five winners at this par 71, three have either led their field or finished runner-up in pa4-5 efficiency during their victories.
Jake Knapp ($8,100)
While Knapp has never played at the Copperhead Course before, he is a great fit for the track. At similar Florida venues, Knapp has finished T5th at the Cognizant Classic and T12th at THE PLAYERS Championship in his last two starts. Knapp has made seven consecutive cuts, and he has gained strokes on approach at all these tournaments. For the season, Knapp ranks first in par-5 performance, and he ranks 21st in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 200+ yards out, which is key for the Copperhead Course, where 24% of approach shots over the last five years have been from at least 200 yards. Knapp has tallied four straight top-25 finishes, and he should extend this streak in his Valspar debut this week.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Keith Mitchell ($7,800)
Mitchell should bounce back with a quality finish this week after missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship. The 33-year-old had made five straight cuts before last week, with three of these finishes being top-30 results. Plus, at the Copperhead Course, Mitchell has never missed a cut in three starts, including a T11 in 2017 and a T17 last year. Mitchell posted a round-low 5-under 66 during the third round of last year’s Valspar Championship, and he is a great bargain at this $7,800 salary. In his second-to-last start, Mitchell was priced at $9,100 for the Cognizant Classic, which hosted a similarly strong field as this week.
Joe Highsmith ($7,300)
Highsmith missed the cut in his Valspar Championship debut last season, but he is a totally different player now. Highsmith returns to the Copperhead Course 110 spots higher in the world golf rankings this week, and he has been on a terrific run as of late, finishing T17th, first, MC, and T20th in his last four starts. That win came at another challenging Florida track in PGA National for the Cognizant Classic, and Highsmith won by two strokes. Furthermore, the T20 in his most recent start came last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, and Highsmith gained strokes across the board at the difficult TPC Sawgrass. The 24-year-old clearly has the tools to handle the volatile conditions in Florida, and Highsmith has top-20 upside this weekend.
Joel Dahmen ($7,000)
Dahmen owns a spotless 4-for-4 record in terms of made cuts at the Copperhead Course—including two top-40 finishes—and the bucket hat-wearing professional enters this week as the maker of four of his last five cuts. During this five-start span, Dahmen has gained strokes on approach at every tournament, and he has displayed strong upside with a pair of top-10 finishes. Dahmen ranks top-15 in both SG: Approach and proximity to the hole on approach shots from 200+ yards this season, and he could be in store for a career-best performance at the Copperhead Course.
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DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Danny Walker ($6,900)
Walker was a last-minute addition to the field for THE PLAYERS Championship last week after Jason Day withdrew, and Walker shocked the golf world in his first attempt at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T6th, including a third round 6-under 66, which tied for the lowest score on Saturday. Walker gained strokes in every major category despite it being his PLAYERS debut, and this marked his fourth straight made cut. Walker should make some noise in his Valspar debut this week and is a terrific target at only $6,900.
Davis Riley ($6,800)
Riley has thrived at the Copperhead Course, finishing runner-up, T19th, and MC in his three starts at the par 71. During his runner-up at the Copperhead Course in 2022, Riley fired an incredible 9-under 62 on Saturday, which is his career-low on the PGA TOUR and was one stroke shy of tying the course record at the Copperhead Course. Among the players in this week’s field that have competed at the Copperhead Course more than once, Riley ranks sixth in Strokes Gained per round. The 28-year-old now returns to the Florida venue riding a three-made-cut streak, including a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open. Riley has gained strokes on approach at every tournament during this cut streak, and he is far too cheap for his potential this week.
