Early
As it pertains to cash games, there is no better pitching pair on DraftKings than Danny Salazar and Lance McCullers this afternoon. Salazar has admittedly allowed the highest hard-hit rate among pitchers in the last 15 days, but his opponent’s (the Yankees) implied Vegas total has decreased 0.4 runs so far. Assuming it stays there (3.4 runs) or drops even more, there’s no reason to worry.
If looking to shy away from either in tournaments, there are a couple of options worth discussing.
Carlos Martinez, STL
Martinez has received an even higher percentage of moneyline bets than Salazar so far today. But more enticing is his recent play, as he’s allowed the lowest batted-ball distance and exit velocity among available pitchers over the last two weeks. Furthermore, the Brewers’ projected lineup is averaging .287 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), the most among offenses in the Early slate. Martinez’s ceiling may not be as high as Salazar’s or McCuller’s, but his floor is reasonably safe for the reasons listed.
Rick Porcello, BOS
Porcello has quietly allowed a batted-ball distance 16 feet lower than his yearly average in the last 15 days. He’s had his fair share of bad outings recently — 1.40 DraftKings points against the White Sox, 10.30 against the Rangers — yet he’s one of only three pitchers who has permitted a batted-ball distance less than 200 feet recently. With the Rays averaging .281 SO/AB, Porcello offers Upside that’s likely to be low-owned.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
The Return of Teheran
Reportedly hindered from an infection in his thigh, Julio Teheran’s outing last week was the first time he had allowed more than three runs in as many months. In his four starts prior, he averaged a +11.42 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. The White Sox’s projected lineup is averaging .262 SO/AB, so it’s not a bad spot by any means, but his salary at DraftKings doesn’t account for the possibility of him not being fully healthy. At FanDuel, however, he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s obviously more enticing where he has a discount and, in turn, reasonable floor.
Main
Jon Lester has an edge over all other pitching options this evening, seeing as how his opponent, the Pirates, are averaging .314 SO/AB. But fitting expensive hitters around his $10,000-plus salary is an issue. And that is even more of a problem if you want to roster Max Scherzer over Lester, since the former’s salary is $3,400 more at DraftKings. That leaves one of two options:
1. Choosing Scherzer or Lester at DraftKings, then using your second pitching option on a value guy like Brandon McCarthy or Tyler Anderson. Don’t laugh: Anderson has exceeded salary-based expectations in his three starts at Coors Field this season, averaging a +10.43 Plus/Minus at FanDuel over that time. His batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is also lower than any of Scherzer’s, Lester’s, or McCarthy’s in that span.
2. Rostering both Lester and Scherzer, which then leaves only $26,000 to spend on hitters. This doesn’t seem as optimal, but Mark Reynolds and Nick Hundley, both who are slugging at least .415 against right-handed pitching, only cost a combined $7,100. That leaves more than enough room to construct a viable cash-game lineup.
For tournaments, it’s worth noting that Scherzer has allowed 1.60 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year, and a higher batted-ball distance than Lester, McCarthy, and Anderson in the last 15 days. His ceiling, which is arguably higher than any option this evening, is viable in all formats, but those recent advanced stats are proof that he’s not invincible. Taking advantage of the discounted Mets bats is a sneaky contrarian option, especially since a few have dazzling differentials versus right-handed pitching — Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, James Loney, and Brandon Nimmo, specifically.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Twins-Rangers total this evening is currently the same as Phillies-Rockies. While that leaves a nice alternative to Coors Field bats, note that Jerad Eickhoff has been getting absolutely destroyed lately, allowing a batted-ball distance 54 feet farther than his yearly average in the past 15 days. His hard-hit rate allowed in that span is additionally 19 percentage points higher than his yearly average. McCarthy is a strong cash option in the Main slate since the Padres’ projected lineup is averaging .262 SO/AB, which should leave more room to fit Rockies hitters, rather than trying to squeeze in Lester or Scherzer around them.
More Hitters Throughout the Day
Anthony Rizzo, CHC
Rizzo’s .551 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching is top-four among first basemen today. He’s also averaged 10.9 DraftKings points in the past month, top-seven at his position.
Jonathan Schoop, BAL
Schoop’s .077 and .095 wOBA and ISO Differentials both rank top-10 at his position. He’s quietly exceeded salary-based expectations at DraftKings in 65 percent of his starts over the last month, making him more than viable for cash-game lineups.
Nolan Arenado, COL
His ownership will rival any skill position tonight, but Arenado’s 84 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings is certainly notable. He also currently has 13 DK Pro Trends, the most in today’s player pool.
Zack Cozart, CIN
Cozart has a .109 ISO Differential and is slugging .556 versus left-handed pitching. Even better is that Adam Conley, his opponent, has allowed a 253-foot batted-ball distance in the past 15 days, the second-worst mark among available pitchers.
Seth Smith, SEA
Only Kris Bryant has averaged a batted-ball distance farther than Smith in the past 15 days among outfielders. No one, however, has recorded a higher exit velocity in that time. With .185 and .151 wOBA and ISO Differentials versus right-handed pitching, Smith remains a pivotal piece of any Mariners stack.
Good luck!
