After UFC 313 last weekend at the T-Mobile Arena, the UFC is staying in town for UFC Vegas 104 at the Apex Center. The main event is a rematch between Roman Dolidze and Marvin Vettori, which wraps up the 13-fight card. Lineups lock at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Marvin Vettori ($8,200) vs. Roman Dolidze ($8,000)
The main event is a not-so-hotly anticipated rematch between ranked middleweights, after Marvin Vettori beat Roman Dolidze in a competitive decision win back in 2023. In the interim, Dolidze has gone 2-1 with wins over a welterweight (Kevin Holland) and a washed light heavyweight on short notice (Anthony Smith), while Vettori is 0-1 but has been out of action with an injury for the last 21 months.
Theoretically, that’s a mild case for the underdog Dolidze, but other historic trends are working against him. He’s both the older man and the loser of the first meeting, which both favor Vettori. More importantly, the line has swung fairly heavily towards Vettori, who’s now a roughly -160 favorite but priced like a pick ’em.
Beyond that, it’s hard to see much changing since the first fight, as Vettori is the better striker with solid takedown defense, while Dolidze’s stand-up game is mostly wild swings. On paper, Dolidze’s takedown chances are better in the smaller cage, but it’s also difficult to grapple continuously for five rounds.
For that reason, I’m all about the favorite in GPPs. This fight is a great stack for cash games, though, since both scored fairly well on a per-minute basis in the original booking—and now get an extra two rounds to work with. The fight is -200 to see the judges.
The Easy Chalk
Kevin Vallejos ($9,100)
The Easy Chalk and Upside Play sections are fairly interchangeable this week, with two of the more expensive options standing well above the rest.
We’ll start with Vallejos, who opened around -410 for his fight with Seung Woo Choi ($7,100) but is now going off around -600 at most books, making him a massive value. The 23-year-old’s only career loss was a close decision against Jean Silva. That fight has aged incredibly well, as Silva has gone on to finish all four of his UFC opponents.
Vallejos bounced back with a quick knockout of his own on his second trip to the Contender Series and now gets a much easier opponent in Choi. The South Korean is 1-4 across his last five, with two knockout losses in that span.
Given Vallejos’ extreme volume on the feet (nearly seven significant strikes per minute), he could pay off even without a finish. Still, he’s +225 to get it done without the judges, making him extremely likely to finish with a high score.
The Upside Play
Diyar Nurgozhay ($8,900)
The other mostly obvious piece at the top of the salary scale is Nurgozhay. Like Vallejos, he’s making his debut after an impressive knockout on the Contender Series, against a lower-level UFC opponent.
For Nurgozhay, that’s Brendson Ribeiro ($7,300), who’s 1-2 in the UFC proper with his only win coming via split decision. Ribeiro’s two losses include a quick knockout and a decision in which he was taken down five times. Either of those outcomes would produce a big DFS score for his opponent.
Nurgozhay didn’t show much grappling in his UFC debut, but it wouldn’t shock me if he went that route this time. Even if he doesn’t, his -140 odds to win with a finish is an encouraging sign.
Nurgozhay isn’t quite as strong of a play as Vallejos, but at $200 cheaper, he doesn’t have to be. He’ll be a staple in my lineups as well.
The Value Plays
Sam Hughes ($7,400)
There are two women on this card that fit different definitions of “value plays,” with Hughes being the prototypical example for cash games.
“Sampage” has seen a bit of line movement her way, but the real value comes in her floor. Her fight against Stephanie Luciano ($8,800) is a whopping -550 to go all three rounds, so she likely has all 15 minutes to work.
While she’s not a great per-minute scorer, she averages a bit over four strikes per minute and around a takedown per fight. If she sticks around those averages, that’s more than enough for a cash game salary saver.
There’s also a chance she uses her wrestling more proactively here. Luciano was taken down five times across two fights against Talita Alencar, a BJJ specialist who’s probably a worse wrestler than Hughes.
Either way, her floor is more than solid enough for cash games, so I’ll be making sure she’s in my lineups.
Yuneisy Duben ($6,900)
On the other hand, Yuneisy Duben is the much stronger GPP option. Duben is making her UFC debut after pulling off a massive upset on the Contender Series in 2024, where she was a +600 underdog and scored a first-round knockout.
She came into her fight with Carli Judice ($8,300) with similar odds, but those were quickly bet down to inside of +300 early in the week. I pointed out the reasons why I thought that move was warranted in my Luck Ratings for the week.
Either way, that makes her a strong value, with proven knockout power. Judice is just 3-2 as a pro, with none of those wins coming against opponents with a winning record. To her credit, both losses were split decisions, but she’s still yet to prove she can compete at this level.
Judice has also absorbed double-digit significant strikes per minute in her UFC fights, which is a recipe for disaster given Duben’s power. It’s possible Duben’s Contender Series knockout was a fluke, but given her salary, I’m willing to risk finding out.
The Contrarian Choice
Priscilla Cahoeira ($7,700)
The last women’s fight on the card to mention is that between Priscilla “Zombie Girl” Cachoeira and Josiane Nunes ($8,500). Cachoeira comes into the fight as about a +150 underdog but brings plenty of upside thanks to her fighting style.
Cachoeira is a classic “kill or be killed” fighter, with just three of her ten UFC bouts needing the judges. She throws heavy shots on the feet with little regard for defense, but more than enough power to finish her opponents.
Nunes brings a similar style, but with a less diverse striking game than Cachoeira. While Cachoeira will mix in kicks and knees, Nunes mostly just wings overhand lefts from a southpaw stance. Cachoeira’s five-inch height advantage should help her land those distance shots while staying out of danger, if she can avoid the temptation to walk right into Nunes’ power.
While this fight is slightly favored to go the full 15 minutes, most of the finishing upside belongs to the underdog. Since scoring a knockout in her UFC debut, Nunes has gone to four straight decisions.
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The Swing Fight
Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($8,300) vs. Ryan Spann ($7,900)
The lone heavyweight fight on the card is also one of the closer matchups, with Ryan Spann coming into his heavyweight debut as a +140 underdog. It’s also one of the only fights on the card favored to end inside the distance but without a massive favorite, making it the “Swing Fight” almost by default.
It’s hard to get a read on Cortes-Acosta. He’s 5-1 in the UFC, but four of those opponents went a combined 6-23 in the UFC, and the other was a month shy of his 45th birthday. Outside of a first-round knockout over Lukasz Brzeski, none of those wins were especially impressive from a real-life or DFS standpoint.
Spann has been up and down throughout his UFC career with an 8-5 record, but just three of those fights needed the judges. He typically finishes early (five first-round finishes) or fades fast. However, that could change without his massive cut to light heavyweight, which likely sapped his cardio.
Alternatively, he could be overpowered by “Salsa Boy,” who weighed in near the heavyweight limit in his last fight. Neither would especially surprise me, which is why I want a piece of both fighters in GPP lineups. However, I’m leaning towards the more dynamic Spann.
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