The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Brooklyn Nets – $12,000 DraftKings
With LeBron James expected to miss 1 to 2 weeks due to a groin strain, Luka Doncic catapults to one of the best pay-up options on the slate. However, he is questionable to play due to back soreness, so keep an eye on his status throughout the day. In his 98 minutes played with the Lakers without James on the court, Doncic has a +11.56% usage rate increase and a +17.88 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Doncic has recorded four straight games with over 50 DraftKings points. He has averaged just under a double-double with 31.3 points, 9.8 assists, and 7.3 rebounds per game. Due to James’ injury, Doncic’s price tag has skyrocketed to $12,000. Despite the rising salary, Doncic has the second-highest projected ceiling tonight and is in a favorable matchup against the Nets, who rank 23rd in defensive rating this year.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley vs. Washington Wizards – $6,500 DraftKings
Immanuel Quickley is coming off the best game of his season, scoring 34 points with five rebounds, five assists, and three steals in a nine-point victory over the Jazz. He shot an impressive 10-for-20 from the field, 6-for-13 from downtown, and a perfect 8-for-8 from the charity stripe. The Raptors lost to the Wizards last game without Quickley in the lineup but are 6.5-point home favorites in this spot tonight.
The Wizards rank 28th in defensive rating and fourth in pace, making this a great spot for the electric point guard. Quickley is drawing 27% projected ownership, which is currently the highest among all point guards tonight. Due to the Raptors’ injuries, Quickley has needed to step up offensively. He has scored 20+ points in seven of his last 11 games. He is one of the best mid-range plays on this 10-game slate.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Memphis Grizzlies – $9,100 DraftKings
The best game environment on the entire slate is this matchup between the Suns and Grizzlies. This game has a slate-high 243-point total with the Grizzlies favored by 4.5-points. Currently on the outside looking in to the Western Conference play-in tournament, the Suns have won three of their last five games. They are 0-3 against the Grizzlies, but Booker is averaging 20.3 points and 9.3 assists per game in this matchup.
Booker has been a boom-or-bust fantasy producer making him a strong tournament option tonight. He has tied his career-high with 6.9 assists per game, but Booker’s fantasy output relies on his scoring. When Booker returns a positive Plus/Minus, it is due to him lighting up the scoreboard. The Grizzlies lead the league in pace at 104.14 per game, so Booker will have plenty of opportunity to hunt his shot tonight.
Top Value: Vince Williams Jr. vs. Phoenix Suns – $3,800 DraftKings
Staying in the same game environment, third-year pro Vince Williams Jr. is one of the best pure values available. He is priced under $4,000 and is projected to start and play around 24 minutes. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for the Grizzlies, which opens up a ton of usage rate. Williams has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games, while averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game during that time.
With Jackson Jr. out last game, Williams started and attempted 12 field goal attempts, including eight shots from behind the arc. Not afraid to let it fly, the Suns are allowing 14.1 3-pointers made per game, which is the sixth-highest in the league. In his last four games, nearly 60% of Williams’ field goal attempts have come from long distance. It will not take much for Williams to return value in this matchup tonight.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes vs. Washington Wizards – $8,500 DraftKings
Scottie Barnes is another Raptors player who looks incredible on this 10-game slate. His versatility will be put on display against a Wizards team that has no desire to play any defense. Over his last three games, Barnes has two point and rebound double-doubles and has accumulated nine steals and four blocks during that time. He is drawing the third-most ownership at the small forward position at 24% tonight.
In his fourth year in the league, Barnes is doing a little bit of everything for the Raptors. He is averaging 19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game this season. His shooting volume and usage rate has increased, but his efficiency has taken a hit. Barnes did not play well against the Wizards on Saturday night, but this is a fantastic opportunity to get back on track in the same matchup.
Top Value: Dante Exum at San Antonio Spurs – $4,200 DraftKings
The Mavericks have quickly fallen to one of the worst teams in the league. Kyrie Irving is done for the year while Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively remain out with many players questionable to play. There is value to target with the Mavericks and Dante Exum is popping in our models for being a great value option. Priced at $4,200 with point guard and small forward eligibility, Exum is easy to fit into all lineup builds. He has a 21% projected usage rate despite continuing to come off the bench in this spot.
Since the start of February, Exum has played at least 20 minutes in 11 of his last 14 games. With all of the Mavericks’ injuries, Exum is projected to play 24 minutes tonight and has a 22% projected ownership. He is a risky value option due to his inconsistency but is worth getting exposure to at his cheap $4,200 salary.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Utah Jazz – $10,300 DraftKings
The Celtics seem to be on cruise control recently with most of their starters bouncing in and out of the lineup. Jayson Tatum is questionable to play with a knee injury but would be one of the best pay-up options available if he is able to suit up. In the Celtics 10-point win over the Lakers Saturday night, Tatum erupted for 40 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists, two steals, and one block for 76 DraftKings points.
For tonight’s game, the Celtics are an absurd 17.5-point favorite against the Jazz, who have lost five games in a row and continue to be the worst team in the Western Conference. They rank 29th in defensive rating and are in full tank mode, which is why the Celtics starting lineup will be one to monitor closely tonight. If Tatum is out, target Jaylen Brown, who would likely play and boost to one of the best pay-up options.
Top Value: Justin Champagnie at Toronto Raptors – $4,100 DraftKings
Currently drawing the second-highest projected Plus/Minus is Wizards’ forward Justin Champagnie. In his first full season with the Wizards, Champagnie is averaging a career-high 7.5 points and 4.5 rebounds per game while shooting 50.4% from the field. He has scored double-digit points in two of his last four games and signed a four-year deal with the Wizards earlier in March, solidifying his playing time moving forward.
The Wizards have surprisingly won four of their last six games and are looking for their second straight win against the Raptors tonight. Champagnie only played four minutes off the bench last game, but Khris Middleton is out due to rest. Middleton being out provides a significant boost to Champagnie’s usage rate and production, which is why he is projected to play 24 minutes and is drawing 30% ownership.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Oklahoma City Thunder – $12,900 DraftKings
In the MVP battle with Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last night, the Thunder took care of business, winning by 24 points. In the rematch tonight, it is difficult not to go right back to Jokic, who has the highest projected ceiling on the slate. His price tag jumped to nearly $13,000, but Jokic recorded a near triple-double with 24 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists last night for 63.25 DraftKings points.
Jokic became the first player in NBA history with a stat line of 30+ points, 20+ rebounds, and 20+ assists against the Suns the game before the Thunder. His ceiling can break the slate, and currently projected for less than 5% ownership feels way too low. There is enough value on this 10-game slate to get exposure to the high-priced Jokic tonight. It is recommended to get overweight in tournaments at this low ownership.
Top Value: Trey Jemison at Brooklyn Nets – $3,000 DraftKings
Not only is LeBron James ruled out, but so are Jaxson Hayes, Rui Hachimura, and Dorian Finney-Smith. With all of these injuries, Trey Jemison is projected to play 24 minutes at center for the Lakers. It remains to be seen whether Jemison will start or not, but 24 minutes at a minimum price is impossible to ignore. Jemison has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate at any position with 22% projected ownership.
Jemison has been productive in his 14 games played with the Lakers this season. He is shooting 62.5% from the field while averaging 11 minutes per game. The Nets have been one of the best matchups for opposing centers this season. They rank 25th in rebounding percentage at 48.9% and have allowed 56.7 points per game in the paint in their last three games. Jemison is too cheap for his projected output.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS (Monday, Oct. 31): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Thursday, Dec. 21): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Friday, November 22): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, November 27)
