The PGA TOUR continues the Florida Swing with a stop at the legendary Bay Hill Club & Lodge for this year’s version of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. With THE PLAYERS Championship next week and The Masters just around the corner, it’s a great portion of the golf schedule as the best players look to tune their games up for the major championships.
There will be plenty of big names in the field this week for the fourth Signature Event of 2025. It’s a limited-field, 72-player field that will have a cut to the top 50 and ties plus any player within 10 shots of the lead after Round 2. For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Ludvig Aberg $9,900
The most recent Signature Event turned into a revenge tour for Aberg at Torrey Pines, who was guest-hosting The Genesis Invitational. Just a few weeks earlier, Aberg was in contention at The Farmers Insurance Open before getting very sick and fading from contention. After two weeks off, he’ll look to take down another elite field as he tees it up at Bay Hill.
Aberg has the fourth-best Perfect% and the third-highest ownership projection. He’s worth being a little chalky since he brings plenty of win equity with his game being so on point. The couple of weeks off should help put his illness squarely behind him.
In his win three weeks ago, Aberg finished in the top five in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach while also ranking second in driving distance. Not only did he win at Torrey, but he also finished in the top five at The Sentry in his other full Signature Event this season, since he had to withdraw from the AT&T Pebble Beach with that illness.
In his two previous appearances at Bay Hill, Aberg finished T24 and T25. He has the kind of well-rounded game that fits difficult setups like this one, and his length off the tee and strategic positioning should help him post another high finish this week. The fact that his ownership projection is so low makes him a great pay-up leverage option.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,300
Matsuyama also won a Signature Event earlier this season, securing his 11th career PGA TOUR victory at The Sentry, where he ran away to a -35 score. This setup is totally different, but the 33-year-old veteran has also had plenty of success on this track and also seems to be coming in a little under the radar with all the other big names near the top of the salary structure getting more attention.
Matsuyama hasn’t contended since his win in January, but he has still strung together some solid results on the West Coast. He finished in the top 25 at the WM Phoenix Open and added a T13 at The Genesis Invitational.
Over his last 24 rounds, Matsuyama ranks third in the field in Total Strokes Gained and seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green while also ranking ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach.
In his career, Matsuyama has made the cut in nine of his 10 career appearances at Bay Hill. His best finish was a T6 back in 2016, but he has posted three top-20 finishes in the last four years.
Matsuyama has the third-highest SimLeverage in the field, and his ownership projection is under 12%. If he stays so off the radar, he’ll be a great play since he brings both a high floor and a high ceiling along with plenty of win equity.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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