Consistency is Key
No pitcher in this slate has shown the kind of Consistency that either Danny Duffy or Rich Hill have had lately. Duffy has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven starts, averaging a +10.13 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span, while Hill only failed to meet salary-based expectations at DraftKings in his last start since he was on a pitch limit in his first game off the DL. He had averaged a +9.01 Plus/Minus over his previous eight performances.
Now that both pitchers’ opponents — the Mariners for Duffy and the Astros for Hill — are averaging .291 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), it only makes sense to spread exposure evenly. That’s not an issue at DraftKings, since both can be rostered with ease. But you can obviously choose only one at FanDuel, and it’s Hill who stands out for a variety of reasons.
First, his batted-ball distance allowed recently isn’t nearly as troubling as Duffy’s. The latter’s is actually 42 feet farther than Hill’s in the past 15 days. Duffy also has one of the tougher matchups this evening, as the Mariners’ .330 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is top-two in the Main slate. Seeing as how it’s Hill who has the greater Bargain Rating at FanDuel, he has a slight edge barring any drastic line movement.
Not Jack
Then there’s Trevor Bauer, who’s allowed a batted-ball distance 36 feet lower than his yearly average in the last 15 days. His Consistency recently isn’t nearly as salivating as Duffy’s or Hill’s, but what stands out is that he’s averaged 1.7 more DraftKings points than either over the last month. His seven DK Pro Trends are also tied for the most at his position. This would make for an easier decision if the Yankees, his opponent tonight, average more than .240 SO/AB. Still, Bauer’s received the highest percentage of moneyline bets so far.
Pom-Pomeranz
There’s also Drew Pomeranz, although the Dodgers, his opponent, are averaging even fewer SO/AB than any of the aforementioned pitchers’ opponents. It’s still noteworthy that he’s returned to his early-season form in the last three games, averaging a +7.29 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. Hill, Duffy, and Bauer should still be prioritized over Pomeranz, though the latter having the highest salary at DraftKings might actually mean he has low ownership despite obvious Upside.
To Coors or Not to Coors
The Rockies are back at Coors Field, which makes for another slate in which you’re forced to either dive head first into exposure or fade them entirely. The obvious answer for tournaments is to fade their ownership. But left-handed pitchers have historically averaged a -13.61 Plus/Minus at Coors when the Rockies have been implied to score over 6.5 runs, making that fade tough to sweat.
Plus/Minus, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
That leaves their offense, specifically those with positive differentials against left-handed pitching, as options in cash games. That includes Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Ryan Raburn, and Nick Hundley (who will likely be less owned than the others).
The Fall of Hammel
Jason Hammel has averaged only 6.6 DraftKings points in the last month, failing to meet salary-based expectations at DraftKings in four of five starts over that period. His batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks alone ranks bottom-three tonight, behind only Drew Hutchison’s and Justin Verlander’s. If you want the Braves bats, their .276 wOBA clearly isn’t ideal. However, when you combine Hammel’s recent advanced stats, as well as the fact that he’s received only 38 percent of moneyline bets today, they have the makings of an intriguing contrarian stack for tournaments.
Everything’s Bigger (and Hotter) in Texas
Chi Chi Gonzalez and Tyler Duffey are two of three pitchers today that have averaged less than seven DraftKings points in the last month (as mentioned above, Hammel is the other). As for tonight, they’re now forced to pitch against one another in the hottest game of the evening. Much like Padres-Diamondbacks in the 90-plus degree heat last night, a game stack is more than viable here given the matchups. With a 10.5 total, there is a lot of Upside all throughout the two lineups.
More Hitters
And a few more hitters involved in intriguing stacks that have yet to be mentioned:
Willson Contreras, CHC
The Braves may be favored here, but that doesn’t mean Contreras’ .658 slugging percentage suddenly disappears. Note that his .130 Isolated Power (ISO) Differential is also ranked top-two among catchers, behind only A.J. Ellis’ top mark.
Carlos Santana, CLE
Ivan Nova exceeded salary-based expectations in his last start against the Padres, but had failed to meet them in his three games prior. That’s all the more reason to roster Santana, who’s averaged a top-10 batted-ball distance among first basemen over the last 15 days. His .235 ISO is top-four.
Daniel Murphy, WSH
Murphy’s .566 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching trails only Jose Altuve’s and Jurickson Profar’s at their respective position. His .241 ISO, however, is not only higher than either, it’s the highest among all second basemen in this slate.
Maikel Franco, PHI
Basically all of Philadelphia’s hitters’ salaries have been drastically increased since they’re now playing at Coors Field. Still, for those not wishing to fade this game entirely, note that Franco has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 10 games, averaging a +5.13 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span.
Good luck!
