Chalk
Johnny Cueto is the most expensive pitcher across sites tonight for a reason. Not only is his opponent, the Rockies, implied to score 0.9 fewer runs than the next team, Cueto has received the highest percentage of moneyline bets among pitchers in this slate. He also leads his position with nine DraftKings Pro Trends, and has recorded at least 25.55 DK points in four of his last five starts. His recent 205-foot batted-ball distance allowed, per our advanced stats, is respectable enough to not concern yourself with finding an alternative option for cash games.
Double-Edged Sword
Michael Pineda is a tough pitcher to figure out right now. On one hand, he’s allowed a 260-foot batted-ball distance in his last two starts, 15 feet farther than the next pitcher in this slate. His 47 percent hard-hit rate in that span is also the highest. However, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six consecutive games, averaging 8.16 strikeouts over that time, and 9.25 in his last four. Even more enticing is his opponent’s (the White Sox) .317 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), .019 more than the next offense.
Given his recent batted-ball distance, combined with Chicago’s whiff rate, let’s say for a moment that his start tonight results in something like David Price’s in the last two weeks — eight-plus hits, at least three runs allowed, and double-digit strikeouts. Those starts may have made fans cringe at times, but his 10 strikeouts in each still allowed him to finish with 20.25 and 26.60 DraftKings points. If Pineda’s final line is similar, that’s certainly a performance that could match, or even exceed, Cueto’s efforts.
Mixed Bag
The last four weeks have highlighted why Marcus Stroman is a bonafide tournament option. In two of those performances, he allowed no more than two runs, simultaneously averaging six strikeouts and at least 21.40 DraftKings points. The other two, both coincidentally occurring on the road, saw him falter with an average of 0.45 DK points. He’s allowed a batted-ball distance 12 feet lower than his yearly average, as well as a top-five hard-hit rate, in the past 15 days, perhaps a hint that those two standout performances weren’t in any way fluky.
Playing With Fire
No matter where you think Stroman’s potential floor sits at this evening, it couldn’t possibly be lower than Ian Kennedy’s, who continues to flirt with disaster. His recent peripherals are similar to Pineda’s, in that his batted-ball distance allowed in the past 15 days is ranked bottom-two in this slate and yet he’s averaged 9.5 strikeouts over his last two starts. But Kennedy has only shown signs of volatility, whereas Pineda has recorded a 100 percent Consistency in the last month. The Blue Jays also have an implied Vegas total of 5.2 runs, the perfect pivot to any Red Sox stack, seeing as they’re implied to score 5.9.
Not the Mona Lisa
Maybe they’ll hang Shelby Miller’s player card in the Louvre one day:
It took only three starts after returning from injury for Miller’s batted-ball distance allowed to become a bottom-three mark. He’s failed to meet salary-based expectations in every single start this season, and that trend looks as if it’ll continue tonight. Vegas seems to thinks so, since Colin Rea and the Padres have received a majority of moneyline bets in this matchup. Expect fireworks if the roof remains open, as the 98-degree Arizona heat is far and away the highest temperature this evening.
Other Hitters
Here are some other hitters in stacks that could potentially match the Blue Jays or Red Sox due to their matchup.
Albert Pujols, LAA
Drew Smyly’s 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) rate is always worrisome to target, but note that he’s failed to meet salary-based expectations at DraftKings in six of his last eight starts. Pujols’ .274 Isolated Power (ISO) against right-handed pitching is fortuitously top-two at his position, all the while Smyly has allowed 1.63 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year.
Jurickson Profar, TEX
Leading off in place of Shin-Soo Choo (lower back stiffness), note Profar’s .244 and .214 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and ISO Differentials versus right-handed pitching. He’s also slugging .614 against said handedness, and averaged .348 hitting leadoff prior to Choo returning from injury.
Matt Carpenter, STL
Don’t allow Carpenter’s -.068 ISO Differential deter you from rostering him. He’s still slugging .503 against left-handed pitching and has a recent 268-foot batted-ball distance, 25 feet farther than the next third baseman’s. What’s more is that only Shelby Miller has averaged fewer DraftKings points than Jeff Locke, who’s facing the Cardinals, over the last month.
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU
Expected to continue hitting second, Gonzalez’s .090 ISO Differential against left-handed pitching is top-three at his position. His 94-MPH exit velocity average in the past 15 days is also tied for top-three among third basemen.
Jake Lamb, ARI
Lamb’s 12 Pro Trends (both sites) and 98-MPH exit velocity are both the highest at his position, making him a viable option in any format. For cash-game purposes, note his 75 percent Consistency over the last month, in which he’s averaged 13.1 DraftKings points in that span.
Corey Dickerson, TB
Dickerson’s .280 ISO is quietly ranked top-three among outfielders in this slate. He’s considered a cog in any Rays stack, as they’re implied to score five runs. Also, Dickerson has averaged a top-10 batted-ball distance at his position in the past 15 days. His .213 ISO Differential is .013 greater than the next outfielder’s.
Good luck!
