FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s main slate.
Batters
Isolated Power (ISO) Differential: .213, Corey Dickerson
The post-Coors hangover has lingered longer than many were expecting for Corey Dickerson in his first season since leaving the Rockies. Though he may not be the righty-killer he was in 2014 and 2015, he still has a positive Plus/Minus against righties in 2016. In 59 games against righties this year, Dickerson’s Plus/Minus on DraftKings is +0.44.
Further, most of the pitchers in that 59-game sample are better than Jered Weaver, today’s opponent, who is . . . bad. Tropicana Field isn’t the best place in the world for lefty power, but Dickerson’s .280 ISO sure is tough to ignore in this matchup.
Weather Rating: 73, Rangers & Red Sox Batters
Because the Diamondbacks may choose to close the roof tonight at Chase Field, today’s game at Fenway Park will likely boast the highest Weather Rating for batters on the evening slate. This will be only the third game this season at Fenway with a game-time temperature exceeding 80 degrees, assuming the forecast holds up. Historically, similar conditions have led to a +2.76 Plus/Minus for batters on FanDuel.
Bargain Rating: 99 (FD), Jake Lamb
The Diamondbacks are one of four teams with a Vegas implied run total over five at the time of this writing. If they are to meet that projection, you would expect Jake Lamb to be involved. Projected to bat fourth on our Lineups page against the right-handed Colin Rea, Lamb comes at a heavy discount on FanDuel — where he costs just $3,600 — considering Lamb has an unreal +4.16 Plus/Minus on FanDuel against righties this season.
Strikeouts Per At-Bat (SO/AB): .101, Jose Altuve
Over the past calendar year, Jose Altuve has struck out around once in every 10 at-bats. Facing Wade LeBlanc, who only strikes out the opposition at a rate of six per nine innings, Altuve will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play this evening. Over 37 games where Altuve has faced a lefty pitcher who ranks in the bottom 20 percent in strikeouts per nine innings, Altuve has posted a Plus/Minus of +1.59 on FanDuel.
Plus/Minus, Consistency, Bargain Rating, and other premium metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Exit Velocity (MPH): 98, Jake Lamb
We know Jake’s matchup is great and we know he is comparatively cheap on FanDuel. His recent performance then is just the icing on the cake. Over the past 15 days, Lamb leads all batters in tonight’s Main slate in Exit Velocity, ranks within the top 10 in Average Distance on batted-balls, and ranks behind only Kendrys Morales in Hard-Hit Percentage.
Pitchers
K Prediction (SO): 7.2, Ian Kennedy
One area tonight’s Main slate is lacking is in high-strikeout pitchers. Ian Kennedy leads the way with a K Prediction of 7.2 in his matchup against the Blue Jays. Toronto, of course, ate an R.A. Dickey sandwich for dinner last night and are just three days removed from scoring 17 runs against the Indians. Since strikeouts may be rare commodities in tonight’s slate, DFSers will be faced with an interesting decision at pitcher.
Opponent Runs: 2.9, Johnny Cueto
Considering the lack of K-upside tonight, Cueto looks to be the safest choice. His opponent, Colorado, currently has a Vegas implied run total under three, making Cueto a heavy favorite to pick up the win. Cueto’s 0.63 home runs allowed per nine innings ranks behind only Jaime Garcia. Cueto’s power-limiting ability is further enhanced by AT&T Park’s 100 Park Factor for right-handed pitchers.
Park Factor: 100, Jorge De La Rosa
De La Rosa will also benefit by pitching at AT&T Park, which has a 100 Park Factor for lefties as well. Though San Francisco is not an offense we typically pick on, their lineup is somewhat lefty-heavy and they have ranked only 20th and 19th in wOBA and ISO, respectively, against left-handed pitching this season. With a 52 percent ground-ball rate over the past calendar year, De La Rosa should be able to limit damage in this matchup. That makes him an interesting contrarian play, particularly if you expect Cueto to be the popular choice at pitcher this evening.
Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (SO/9): Drew Smyly
I’ve mentioned the potential scarcity of Ks this evening, but if there is one player who has K upside, it’s probably Drew Smyly. Smyly’s K Prediction is weighed down by the Angels’ 15.7 percent strikeout rate against lefties, which is the lowest mark in the league. But we’ve already seen Smyly reach double-digit strikeouts multiple times this season and he will be aided by home plate umpire Ben May (+0.7 Plus/Minus on DK, +1.6 Plus/Minus on FD). Smyly’s K Prediction of 5.1 is concerning in cash games, but he may have one of the higher ceilings when considering the slate as a whole.
Bargain Rating (FD): Michael Pineda
It’s no secret that Pineda’s peripherals look a lot better than his surface stats – an ugly 5.24 ERA with a 3-7 win-loss record. Over his last two starts though, Pineda has only allowed two earned runs and struck out 20 batters. Interestingly, this success doesn’t line up with his advanced stats over those two starts, which show slate-worst scores in Average Distance (260 feet), Hard-Hit Percentage (47 percent), and Exit Velocity (93 MPH).
Maybe Pineda is just destined to never align with his under-the-hood metrics, whether those metrics say he should be performing better or worse than he is. Pineda is priced to move on FanDuel, where he costs $9,100. Is he truly a bargain or more of a trap?
Bonus
The leader in Pro Trends is really Jake Lamb, but since he has already been listed more than enough times in this and recent Data Dives, let’s move down to . . .
Pro Trends: 11 (DK), Matt Carpenter
Carpenter scores points for recent advanced stats, Weather Rating, spot in the order, and Vegas factors. He does have to face a lefty, so it’s not all good, but note that opposing pitcher Jeff Locke has not demonstrated an extreme lefty/righty split over his career.
