The Decision, Part 2
Madison Bumgarner and Carlos Carrasco have flown in opposite directions as of late. The former has failed to meet salary-based expectations in back-to-back performances, averaging a -6.81 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that time, while Carrasco has averaged 41.87 DraftKings points and 10.5 strikeouts in his last two. Choosing one or the other wouldn’t be an issue had their salaries not changed in that time, but Bumgarner now costs only $200 more than Carrasco at DraftKings.
The decision is made tougher since their matchups are decisively different. The Tigers, Carrasco’s opponent, are averaging .022 more strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) and have a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) .047 lower than that of Bumgarner’s opponent this evening (the Rockies). What’s more is that Carrasco has allowed a batted-ball distance 38 feet less than that of Bumgarner’s in the past 15 days.
These two arguably have the highest ceilings in this slate, and while you can’t go wrong with either, Carrasco’s advanced stats recently certainly seem like the more comfortable option in cash games. He also has a 90 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, making the choice between the two a tad bit easier there.
Also See …
Kenta Maeda has a case to be made as a secondary option at DraftKings — or even an alternate on FanDuel — since his opponent, the Orioles, are averaging .297 SO/AB. He’s also the only pitcher with double-digit Pro Trends and has allowed a batted-ball distance only two feet farther than Carrasco’s in the last 15 days. He’s received the minority of moneyline bets in this matchup so far, but I would expect that to change since the Orioles have an implied Vegas total in the bottom two tonight.
A Bit of Bad Luck
Gio Gonzalez had struggled up until his last start, despite allowing a decent batted-ball distance in the two previous. Good fortune finally caught up, however, as he produced a +6.52 Plus/Minus at DraftKings against the Reds. It’s a similar spot for Gonzalez tonight since the Brewers’ projected lineup is averaging .278 SO/AB, all the while having a less-than-stellar .291 wOBA.
His salary at FanDuel is actually $300 more than Maeda, so I wouldn’t worry about squeezing him in there. But he has an 84 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, making him one of the more valuable pivots from Bumgarner or Carrasco there this evening.
Chris Young is Still in the Rotation
The header says it all. Young’s 269-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the past two weeks is 37 feet farther than the next pitcher. His exit velocity allowed in that span is three miles per hour higher. And if that weren’t enough, he’s permitted a hard-hit rate 12 percent greater than the next pitcher, too.
Young’s not an overwhelming dog in this matchup — 44 percent of moneyline bets that have come in are siding with Kansas City — which is slightly concerning for any Blue Jays stack. Still, they’re implied to score the most runs in the Main slate, making them viable in all cash-game lineups. They’ll absolutely be the highest owned in tournaments, which gives all the more reason to look elsewhere.
In the All Day
Reds-Cubs begins nearly five hours before the next game, and is thus offered only in the All Day slate. John Lackey and Chicago have received 85 percent of moneyline bets so far, but it looks to be more of a train wreck than race to the finish line. Just note Lackey’s and Brandon Finnegan’s batted-ball distances allowed in the last 15 days, both which are over 230 feet.
The Cubs are implied to score 5.6 runs and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them get there. But their ownership won’t get you far, especially in a slate that most players would join just to roster them. Given Lackey’s similar advanced stats in comparison to Finnegan recently, it makes sense to lean towards the lower ownership of the Reds, particularly their first five hitters: Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Adam Duvall.
Also Forgotten
It’s not just David Price’s performance of -11.95 DraftKings points against Texas two weeks ago that makes them a strong option tonight. He’s allowed a bottom-four batted-ball distance mark in the past 15 days, simultaneously tying Steven Matz and John Lackey for bottom-three in hard-hit rate allowed this evening. The Rangers should have low ownership despite quietly being favored in this matchup, which makes their hitters with positive differentials against left-handed pitching — Shin-Soo Choo, Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre, Ryan Rua, and Jurickson Profar — enticing options.
Anibal Sanchez was recalled from the bullpen specifically to replace the injured Jordan Zimmermann in this start. It clearly wouldn’t have happened had Zimmermann stayed healthy, as Sanchez has averaged a -9.41 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last six starts. Fortunately, Cleveland’s slate-high .371 wOBA could potentially fly under the radar despite facing Sanchez, who’s allowed 2.11 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the last year.
Other Hitters
Toronto will be a very popular stack, but here are some options that could potentially rival their Upside.
David Ross, CHC
Obviously an option only in the All Day slate, Ross is an intriguing option in any Cubs stack. Just note his .145 and .131 wOBA and Isolated Power (ISO) Differentials, both top-five among catchers. He’s also slugging .492 against left-handed pitching.
Travis d’Arnaud, NYM
Wei-Yin Chen has recorded a 60 percent Dud rate in the last month, and now likely has to face d’Arnaud (among others), whose .221 ISO Differential is ranked top-two at his position. His .333 ISO is .027 higher than the next catcher’s.
Kendrys Morales, KC
Stacking the opponent of the team implied to score the most runs that evening is typically a good strategy for tournaments, and Morales would be the centerpiece of that approach. Not only does he have an absurd 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, his 270-foot batted-ball distance recorded in the last 15 days is the highest of his position.
Wilmer Flores, NYM
Much like d’Arnaud, Flores now finds himself with dazzling differentials — specifically his .136 ISO Differential and .560 slugging percentage — in a matchup all too good to pass on. Even better is that he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel.
Marcus Semien, OAK
Semien should hit second now that Oakland is facing a lefty, which makes his .626 slugging percentage against said handedness that much better. He’s viable across sites since he’s averaged a 231-foot batted-ball distance recently. However, he still holds the most value at FanDuel, as that’s where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Odubel Herrera, PHI
It’s quietly another terrific matchup for Philadelphia, who square off against Michael Foltynewicz and his 2.11 HR/9 allowed in the last year. It’s specifically a great spot for Herrera since he has a .078 and .096 wOBA and ISO Differential against right-handed pitching.
Good luck!
