Prize Fight
Something’s got to give when Jon Lester starts against Noah Syndergaard today, and as of now, it appears the former has the edge. The Mets’ projected lineup is averaging .005 more strikeouts per at-bat than the Cubs’, all the while having a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) .043 lower. Despite similar batted-ball distances allowed in the past 15 days, Lester has also received 63 percent of moneyline bets in this matchup.
For cash-game purposes, it’s understandable to be more confident in Lester. His Consistency this season remains higher than that of Syndergaard’s, while also producing a Dud rate that trails only Stephen Strasburg’s today. Syndergaard has faltered lately, potentially due to bone spurs, averaging a -14.14 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last two starts. But those poor results are why he remains a sly tournament play, especially since he’s averaged 1.62 more strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) than Lester this year.
The Silent King
If you want to start comparing the top options that this slate has to offer, Cole Hamels is a mandatory discussion point. His exit velocity allowed in the last 15 days is one mile per hour lower than that of Lester’s. Hamels’ 20 percent hard-hit rate permitted in that span is lower than Syndergaard’s. And over the course of the past month, Hamels has recorded an 80 percent Consistency, 20 percent greater than what either aforementioned options have produced.
His salary at DraftKings has progressively increased in four consecutive games, due in part to his +9.75 Plus/Minus average there over that time. But if an increase of that magnitude (+$3,900) worries you, note that he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. Minnesota’s projected lineup is averaging .306 SO/AB, a sign that Hamels’ potential ceiling is astronomical no matter the Salary Change.
Discount Aces
Vincent Velasquez returned from injury last week and immediately morphed back into his form from earlier in the year, recording seven strikeouts and 26.25 DraftKings points against the Diamondbacks. Whether his final results can match the mass number of aces starting today remains to be seen, but his 10.79 SO/9 rate is at least ranked top-three at his position. Despite their recent play, the Royals’ lineup is averaging .276 SO/AB.
Priced even lower than Velasquez is Michael Wacha, who has an 87 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. Even at DraftKings, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four starts, allowing a hard-hit rate six percentage points lower than his yearly average over his last two. His potential ceiling tonight is also a question, but note that the Brewers’ .282 wOBA is bottom-three in this slate.
Recency Bias
I wish the Angels hadn’t scored 20-plus runs last night because they’re arguably in a similar spot today. It’s the Red Sox, of course, who have the highest implied Vegas total in this slate, but they’re facing Matt Shoemaker, who’s averaged a +9.64 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games. Sean O’Sullivan, on the other hand, gave up at least four runs in both starts prior to being sent down in May, and has allowed 2.22 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the last year.
If I had to guess their respective ownership in tournaments, I lean the Angels garnering slightly more if only because of their outburst last night. Despite the huge game, C.J. Cron, Carlos Perez, Mike Trout, and Kole Calhoun’s salaries have merely budged $100 here and there since Saturday. Given Shoemaker’s noted performance of late, along with recent struggles at the plate, perhaps the Red Sox bats are best for tournaments today. However, implied to score a similar total at a fraction of the cost, there’s no reason to avoid the Angels in cash games.
Masters of Disguise
Ubaldo Jimenez has quietly exceeded salary-based expectations in his last two starts, averaging a +10.60 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span. Both of those performances came against the Padres, who have notably recorded the lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Jimenez averaged a -11.74 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in the seven starts prior to facing San Diego, which might be the more important data sample for today, seeing as the Mariners’ projected lineup has a .307 wOBA.
Mike Pelfrey’s 198-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is actually respectable in comparison to his -9.94 Plus/Minus average at DraftKings over that time. Still, he’s only scored 4.2 DraftKings points per game in the past month, the fewest among available pitchers. Consider the Rays — his opponent today — an under-the-radar stack in tournaments, especially since they’re implied to score 5.0 runs currently.
Other Prominent Hitters
Brian McCann, NYY
McCann faces Andrew Cashner today, who was averaging only 5.54 DraftKings points in his five starts prior to injury. What’s more is that McCann has averaged a 265-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, which ranks in the top-five among Sunday’s player pool.
Brandon Moss, STL
Moss’ .237 ISO Differential is .046 higher than the next first baseman’s. Any prominent Cardinals hitter is likely to be highly owned since their team is implied to score 4.9 runs, but Moss’ 46 percent hard-hit rate recently still makes him one of the stronger options at his position.
Chase Utley, LAD
Assuming Utley leads off against the right-handed Jon Gray, his .115 wOBA Differential keeps him as a terrific option. It only helps that the Dodgers’ projected total has already increased 0.3 runs this morning.
Wilmer Flores, NYM
Flores obviously has a tough matchup against Jon Lester today. Even so, he’s one of the cheaper options across sites that also has outstanding Differentials. For instance, note that his .076 and .115 wOBA and ISO Differentials are both top-six among third basemen today.
Francisco Lindor, CLE
Lindor’s salary has plummeted $1,100 at DraftKings, likely because he’s 3-for-17 in his last four games. With a .536 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching, his discount should be noted. Despite the recent slump, he’s also averaged 9.7 DraftKings points in the last month, tied for top-six among shortstops. Before rostering a full Indians stack, note that their implied total has decreased 0.5 runs.
Jayson Werth, WSH
Whether it’s his 13 DraftKings Pro Trends, .438 wOBA, or .650 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching, Werth is ranked top-five in numerous categories at his position today. He’s also recorded a batted-ball distance 29 feet farther than his yearly average over the last 15 days.
Steven Moya, DET
Not only does Moya have a 96 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, his 98 MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days is two MPH more than that of any outfielder. Additionally note his 265-foot batted-ball distance in that span, making him one of the better options that provides salary relief this afternoon.
Good luck!
