In the MLB DFS Recent Form Report, we create trends with filters listed under the “Adv Stats – Recent” heading of our free Trends tool. I am looking for players whose recent play has not shown up in their stats or whose production has been exceeding or falling short of expectations.
The MLB DFS Recent Form Report is released on Monday morning each week.
Independence Day
Happy Fourth of July. A huge thank you to all the brave men and women who have either fought previously or still fight today to allow folks like us to read about daily fantasy baseball and, more importantly, keep America as the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave.
Pitchers
Tsunami Warning
Carlos Martinez is in ridiculously remarkable recent form. Per our advanced stats, his batted-ball distance allowed has dropped 17 feet and now sits at an unbelievably low 170 feet. His hard-hit percentage allowed has dropped 16 points to an amazing 12 percent. Additionally, Martinez’s exit velocity has decreased by three miles per hour for a current total of 85 MPH, and he is inducing 66 percent ground balls compared to 15 percent line drives. Wowzers.
Players with similar 15-day distances and exit velocities allowed have accumulated a + 5.59 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with a very steady 62.8 percent Consistency.
But that is just a taste of Martinez’s currently dominant form. Pitchers with comparable recent ground-ball and line-drive percentages have produced a +3.65 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 57.1 percent Consistency.
And the third reason to admire Martinez’s recent form: Pitchers with analogous 15-day hard-hit rates allowed have yielded a +5.35 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 62.6 Consistency.
No matter how you look at Martinez, he seems extremely likely to provide value.
With a recent -$100 Salary Change, Martinez checks in with a 65 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Carlos’ recent fantasy production hasn’t exactly jived with his recent advanced data yet, so there’s a possible opportunity to be ahead of the market on his usable value if you heed this Tsunami warning.
Bargain Players, Salary Change, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Two Little Indians
Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco appear to be two Indians currently heading in opposite directions.
Salazar has seen a significant recent increase in his hard-hit percentage, which has ballooned by 14 points all the way up to 45 percent the past 15 days. Meanwhile, his exit velocity has increased by three MPH and currently resides at a very swift 94 MPH.
Pitchers in comparable recent form have frustrated owners with an extremely hurtful -7.05 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Carrasco, on the other hand, has seen recent decreases in his batted-ball distance allowed, hard-hit percentage, and exit velocity. His 15-day totals currently are down to 188-feet allowed, 21 percent hard-hit rate and 87 MPH exit velocity.
Pitchers with similar 15-day totals have historically delivered a +3.35 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 64.4 percent Consistency. Carrasco has averaged a very tasty 41.87 DK points per game in his last two starts.
The Young and the Awful
Chris Young is in absolutely frightening recent form. He has experienced considerable increases in all of his recent data, including substantial escalations in distance allowed (+36 feet), hard-hit rate(+19 percent) and exit velocity (+6 MPH).
Young’s average 15-day batted-ball distance allowed of 275 feet is so terrible that I can barely get a usable sample on it. The few woeful souls who have ‘achieved’ this great feat have a heartbreaking -14.91 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Pitchers with comparable recent hard-hit percentages and exit velocities, though slightly more numerous, are still just as terrifyingly awful.
Batters
Kendry Morales
The bad news: I couldn’t think of any fancy heading for Kendry Morales so that’s all you get.
The good news: Morales has been ripping the cover off the baseball recently. He has increased his exit velocity by six MPH and now has a 15-day average of 98 MPH. Kendry’s average batted-ball distance has increased by 38 feet and his hard-hit percentage has also risen by 24 points to his present totals of 262 feet and 58 percent respectively.
Players with similar batted-ball metrics have accounted for a +2.16 Plus/Minus at FanDuel.
Over the past month, Morales has averaged 6.1 points per game more than his 2016 average on FanDuel. Over the past 10 games, he has absolutely crushed his salary-based expectations.
For what it’s worth, both Kelly Johnson and Brian McCann are in strikingly similar form. My name is Kelly McCann. There has to be some type of weird narrative we can reach from that juicy tidbit.
Jung-Ho, Hell No!
Among players who have played in at least nine games the past 15 days, Jung-Ho Kang has seen the most significant drops in all his batted ball metrics. Kang’s distance is down 50 feet, his hard-hit percentage has decreased by 20 points, and his exit velocity has decreased by six MPH.
He’s also drilling the ball into the ground at an alarming 68 percent recent clip, which is 24 percent higher than his seasonal average. Kang’s average points per game on FanDuel have also decreased by 2.3 points this past month.
None of these things can be good, right?
Shockingly, players who have similar precipitous drops in their advanced data and similar newfound inclinations for smashing the ball into the ground have a +0.25 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Conclusion
Today we examined a starting pitcher whose recent advanced data hasn’t translated into recent fantasy production but who seems poised for a breakout sooner rather than later. We looked at two excellent pitchers for red-hot Cleveland who are heading in opposite directions in terms of both advanced data and production. And we examined a pitcher who is in incredibly awful and incredibly rare form.
For batters we looked at a dude who’s currently locked in at the plate and whom I would consider fading at your own risk. Finally we looked at a player who appears to be in horrible form that apparently isn’t quite as horrible as it looks.
