The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Phoenix Suns – $10,000 DraftKings
Tonight’s seven-game slate is flooded with top-tier talent, including at the point guard position. Despite being $500 cheaper than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young is leading all guards with the highest projected ceiling. Young is still playing through an Achilles injury and is also listed as questionable due to an illness, so keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. If Young can go, he is a strong pay-up play.
With Young running the show, the Hawks continue to rank third in pace at 104.35 and tied for sixth in most points scored at 117.2 per game. Despite being five-point home underdogs, this meeting against the Suns has the second-highest total on the slate at 234.5 points. Young leads the league with a career-high 12.1 assists per game and is a near-lock for a double-double. He is another incredible option tonight.
Top Value: TJ McConnell vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,700 DraftKings
The Pacers have rattled off six-straight wins but now face their toughest test during the stretch with a home game against the Cavaliers, who hold a league-best 33-5 record. They are eight-point home underdogs and are playing without Aaron Nesmith while Tyrese Haliburton is doubtful to play. Those two impactful players being out will provide a significant boost to TJ McConnell, who has played the most minutes when Nesmith and Haliburton are off the floor this season. He is an elite value play in all formats.
McConnell has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and has a positive Plus/Minus with at least 21 DraftKings points in three straight games. Despite being projected for 24 minutes and to come off the bench, McConnell is arguably the best value. He will also be popular with his 28% projected ownership.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Atlanta Hawks – $9,000 DraftKings
Opposite of Trae Young is Suns’ Devin Booker who is projected for the highest ceiling at the shooting guard position tonight. Booker has rattled off back-to-back 30-point games and has a points and assists double-double in three of his last five games. His usage rate remains high, and Young should have no trouble racking up fantasy points in this matchup. The Hawks rank 21st in defensive rating this season.
The Hawks defense is allowing 28.8 assists per game, which is the third-highest in the league. In his last game against the Hawks, which was last Thursday, Booker recorded a 20-point, 12-assist double-double despite shooting a putrid 0-for-8 from behind the arc. With Jusuf Nurkic out for the Suns, Booker has played a team-high 816 minutes in his absence and has posted a 30.3% assist rate. He is a fantastic play.
Top Value: Bennedict Mathurin vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,800 DraftKings
Going back to the Pacers backcourt with mid-range value play Bennedict Mathurin. With Haliburton and Nesmith off the floor this season, Mathurin has a +4.21% usage rate increase (per our Trends tool). He has recorded a points and rebounds double-double in two of his last five games and is third on the Pacers in scoring this season with 16.5 points per game. Mathurin is projected for a slate-high 33% ownership and ranks second behind his teammate McConnell in projected Plus/Minus. He is another incredible value.
Even though the Cavaliers have the best record in the league, their defensive rating is only the 10th best. They play at the sixth-fastest pace in the league and are allowing 111.3 points per game. This is an exploitable matchup, especially playing at home for the Pacers and Mathurin will likely lead the charge.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $8,600 DraftKings
The best game environment to target is this matchup between the Bulls and Pelicans. The Bulls rank second in pace, while the Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating. Zach LaVine should have a field day in this spot, especially considering his backcourt teammates Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are both listed questionable to play. If both are ruled out, LaVine will be playing with a usage rate well over 30% tonight.
LaVine has been cooking offensively with six consecutive games scoring over 30 points. He even has added two double-doubles during that stretch where he pulled down 10 rebounds. His salary has risen to $8,600, but LaVine currently has the highest projected ceiling at the small forward position while drawing 15% projected ownership. This is a fantastic spot for another 30 burger from LaVine in a likely barnburner.
Top Value: Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. Phoenix Suns – $4,300 DraftKings
Another Hawks player who is questionable to play but looks incredible if he is able to suit up is Bogdan Bogdanovic. This is the front end of a home-and-road back-to-back, so it remains to be seen if he will be held out of this game or the road game. The Hawks are still without Jalen Johnson, which provides more opportunities for players like Bogdanovic. Since returning from injury, he has scored double-digit points in back-to-back games with his playing time ramping up. He is too cheap for his projected workload.
Bogdanovic’s last game was against the Suns last Thursday, and he filled up the stat sheet with 17 points, three assists, two rebounds, and two steals while shooting 7-for-11 from the field and 3-for-6 from deep. If he is able to play tonight, Bogdanovic is one of the best value plays on the slate at his $4,300 salary.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Sacramento Kings – $11,500 DraftKings
Among the four options over $10,000 tonight, Giannis Antetokounmpo is drawing the second-highest projected ownership at 24%. The Greek Freak is averaging a league and career-high 31.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. He has recorded a double-double in 27 of his 31 games played. With plenty of value to target on this slate, getting exposure to Antetokounmpo will be fairly easy against the Kings tonight.
On paper, the Kings are a difficult matchup for Giannis. They rank second in the least amount of points scored per game in the paint while also ranking seventh in rebounding percentage. However, in his last six games against the Kings since 2021, Giannis is averaging 35.3 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 61 DraftKings points per game. Giannis is matchup-proof and will be one of the highest-scoring players on the slate.
Top Value: Oso Ighodaro at Atlanta Hawks – $3,500 DraftKings
Suns’ rookie Oso Ighodaro has been a valuable asset with Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup. When given over 20 minutes per game, Ighodaro has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each game while averaging 19.3 DraftKings points per game. Ighodaro has started the last two games, including playing 30 minutes last game. In that game, he contributed 10 points and six rebounds, even with a sub-10% usage rate.
Ighodaro is projected to start and play a modest 23 minutes tonight. Even then, he is popping with the highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position. He has power forward and center eligibility making it easy to fit him into all lineup builds. Due to the pace of play in this matchup, Ighodaro will have plenty of opportunity for easy buckets and rebounds. His $3,500 salary makes him a great value piece.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Dallas Mavericks – $12,200 DraftKings
The most popular pay-up option for this seven-game slate is Nuggets’ superstar Nikola Jokic. Over the last eight games, Jokic has been on an absolute tear. During that time, he is averaging 33 points, 13.8 rebounds, 11.3 assists, 2.3 steals, and 76.5 DraftKings points per game. Jokic has posted a double-digit positive Plus/Minus in six of those eight games and is the best pay-up option whenever he is playing.
Jokic ranks third in the league in scoring, rebounding, and assists per game this season. The Nuggets have already played three games against the Mavericks this season, and Jokic is averaging a triple-double with 29.7 points, 17.7 rebounds, and 11.3 assists per game while shooting 57.1% from the field and 71.4% from behind the arc. The Mavericks are allowing the sixth-most points scoring in the paint this season at 49.7 per game. Regardless of the price, Jokic is a staple in cash games and an incredible tournament play.
Top Value: Clint Capela vs. Phoenix Suns – $4,900 DraftKings
Playing against Oso Ighodaro with be the Hawks’ centers, Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. They both look fantastic, leading the center position in projected Plus/Minus and are priced right next to each other. Since Capela is starting, he will get the slight lean for the best value option. He has recorded back-to-back games with over 30 DraftKings points and a positive Plus/Minus in both games with one double-double.
The Suns are both a below-average rebounding team and allow plenty of points per game in the paint. Caplea will have a fantastic opportunity to record his second-straight double-double in this matchup. This is a great game environment with a ton of opportunity for fantasy production. Both Capela and Okongwu can produce in this spot. If your lineup needs the $400 savings, just slide Capela down to Okongwu.
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