After a beautiful and exciting Opening Drive to the 2025 PGA TOUR season, the pros say Aloha to Hawaii and head to California for the first stop on the West Coast swing. This week’s edition of The American Express will return to the Coachella Valley, which will host the first tournament of the year in the continental United States. This event is unique in that it uses a three-course rotation, with a cut after Saturday’s third round instead of the typical cut after two rounds. After the Saturday cut, the top 65 and ties will finish the week with a round at the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West.
For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything you right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
Sungjae Im $10,300
With Xander Schauffele (undisclosed) withdrawing after salaries came out, the top of this week’s salary structure is over-saturated. You’re not going to find a top-tier player with low ownership since there are so few options, but there is a strong case to be made that Im’s should be even higher, even though he has the highest ownership projection in the field at over 30%. Despite that high projection, he still brings the second-highest SimLeverage since his Perfect% is the highest in the field by a wide margin.
Im also has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the field and is tied with Justin Thomas ($10,400) for the best odds to win and place in the top 10, according to Vegas.
The main draw to building around Im in this week’s tournament is his exceptional track record at La Quinta. In his six career appearances in the last six years, Im had never finished outside the top 25. He has never been in the top 10 either, but his consistency has been remarkable.
His ability to contend on low-scoring tracks throughout his career makes him an ideal fit for these three courses, and he comes in with good form. Last year, his only win came at the Woori Bank Championship in South Korea, but Im did finish in the top 15 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and in the top 10 at the Hero World Challenge in his final two events of 2024 and opened 2025 with a third-place finish at The Sentry.
Over the last 36 rounds, Im ranks third in Total Strokes Gained and seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He isn’t going to sneak up on anyone this week, given his course history and salary, but no one at the top of the salary structure offers enough of a ceiling to pivot away from Im, especially given his strong form.
Max Greyserman $9,200
Our projections absolutely love Greyserman this week, giving the 29-year-old the third-highest ceiling and median projections in the entire field. Greyserman also has the fourth-highest Perfect% in the field, which helps him rank in the top five in SimLeverage even though his ownership projection is over 19%. Don’t worry– this week still has plenty of players with lower ownership and more leverage, but they’re just not at the top of the salary structure after Xander’s withdrawal.
Greyserman leads the entire field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 36 rounds and over the last 16 rounds. Most of his best work has come with his putter, but he has showcased a well-rounded skillset and the ability to post low scores when needed.
He had a scalding finish to 2024, posting three runner-up finishes in the last six months in addition to two other top 10s. Greyserman made the cut in 11 straight events to finish last year, with second-place finishes at the 3M Open, Wyndham Championship, and ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. He started his 2025 with a top 25 at The Sentry, giving him 12 straight official events exceeding salary-based expectations.
Last year at La Quinta, he made the cut and finished T56, but that final result hides how good he was. He started 67-68-66 before a 73 in the Final Round dropped him way down the leaderboard. In the second half of last year, he got more experience in contention in the final round and should be better if he gets into a similar spot this season. All his recent success and the good course fit send his projections for this week through the roof, so be sure to include Greyserman in your roster since a breakthrough win seems to be coming very soon.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
