The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
The biggest prize pools for Wild Card Weekend are on the slates for the individual days, so rather than a stud and value pick, I’ll be highlighting one play from each day this week.
Saturday Pick: Justin Herbert at Houston Texans – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Saturday’s two games have the lowest point totals of the weekend, so there may not be a ton of scoring in either contest. The Chargers could be without J.K. Dobbins (ankle, questionable), while Gus Edwards (ankle) is also banged up. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Justin Herbert has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the QBs on Saturday using an evenly-blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and THE BLITZ. He may have to do some extra work if the running game struggles.
Herbert finished the year on a very nice roll. He threw for over 280 yards in each of his last three games and had multiple touchdown throws in each of his last four. He looked excellent in Week 18, throwing for 346 yards and two touchdowns while adding 42 rushing yards on his way to a season-high 31.04 DraftKings points.
He’ll look to build on that momentum against the Texans on the road in the first game of the weekend. Quarterbacks threw for only an average of 220.5 yards per game against Houston this season, but they threw 31 touchdowns on the year and scored two rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks.
Herbert has very nice upside at his salary, and he’s my favorite QB play for Saturday.
Sunday Pick: Jayden Daniels at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Sunday’s slate is stacked with strong QB options, but Daniels has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate projections for both sites.
Based on points allowed, Daniels has the best matchup of all quarterbacks this week. Opposing QBs had the fifth-most fantasy points in the NFL against Tampa Bay and threw for 26 touchdowns in their last 13 games. Back in Week 1, Daniels threw for 184 yards and no touchdowns against the Bucs in his NFL debut but still had a good fantasy day since he ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns.
As his rookie year went on, Daniels posted better passing numbers while still bringing a high ceiling for spike games due to his rushing potential. Before playing a limited workload last week, Daniels had exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games and showed the best of his versatile skillset with a monster performance on Sunday Night Football two weeks ago. He ran for 127 yards and added 227 passing yards with three touchdown tosses.
Daniels’ dual-threat abilities and favorable matchup make him a better play for me this week than Jalen Hurts, who is just making his way back from injury, and even Josh Allen, who costs more and has a tougher matchup against Denver.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Saturday Pick: Derrick Henry vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,800 on FanDuel
Henry has the top ceiling projection at running back in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Joe Mixon represents a little more potential value, but he’s also in a tougher matchup against the Chargers strong run defense, while Henry should carry the load and bring both a high ceiling and a high floor as the Ravens look to pound their division foe into submission by running the rock repeatedly with King Henry.
In his first season with the Ravens, Henry tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns and added two more touchdowns as a receiver. He had a pair of touchdowns in last week’s win over the Browns while running for over 130 yards for the third straight week. Not surprisingly, he exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those three games.
He only scored one touchdown this season in two games against the Steelers but did rack up 227 rushing yards on 37 total carries in the two games. Running backs, as a whole, scored 13 touchdowns against the Steelers but only one in the last five weeks.
The Ravens’ game plan will likely rely heavily on their ground game, and Henry came to Baltimore to have a shot at playoff success. Look for him to have a hefty workload and a big fantasy point total regardless of whether the Ravens play this game from ahead or it’s a close game throughout.
Sunday Pick Value: Bucky Irving vs. Washington Commanders – $4,700 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
The highest point total of the weekend comes from the Commanders and Bucs, so let’s go back to that game again for our top Sunday running back. Rookie Bucky Irving has taken over the majority of the work in the Bucs’ backfield this season, and he has the top Projected Plus/Minus on both sites in the aggregate projections. He edges out Saquon Barkley, who costs significantly more and has a tough matchup against the strong Packers run defense.
Irving had 19 carries last week against the Saints in the Bucs’ must-win Week 18 matchup. In comparison, veteran Rachaad White, who began the year as the starter, didn’t have a single carry.
Irving did well with his workload, too, producing 89 yards and a touchdown. He produced over 16 DraftKings points and exceeded salary-based expectations for the seventh time in his last eight games.
The fourth-round pick from Oregon has showcased quickness and elusiveness all season long and finished the year with 1,122 rushing yards and 392 receiving yards while scoring eight touchdowns.
The Commanders have been a top-10 matchup for running backs this season. Running backs combined for 17 touchdowns against Washington this year and averaged 113.8 rushing yards per contest.
Irving isn’t without risk since he relies on big plays and sometimes gets trapped as part of a running-back-by-committee. However, his ceiling and upside make him a great play.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Saturday Pick: Nico Collins vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
After losing key pass-catchers to injury throughout the season, the Texans will have to rely heavily on Collins once again in this contest with the Chargers. Collins has the highest ceiling projection of all receivers on Saturday using the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel for Saturday and the second-highest on DraftKings, where Quentin Johnston edges him out due to his 92% Bargain Rating.
Collins has played seven games since returning from an injury of his own, scoring four touchdowns over that span and averaging 64.2 yards per game over his last six. He had at least six targets in every game since returning before playing a more limited role in the final week of the season since the Texans had the division wrapped up.
The star receiver managed to hit 1,000 yards despite missing five games with a hamstring injury, and he’s the Texans’ big-play threat down the field against the Chargers. He’s sure to get plenty of attention from both C.J. Stroud and the Chargers defense, but he should be able to put together a strong showing since he’ll get plenty of opportunities.
Sunday Pick: Mike Evans vs. Washington Commanders – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Speaking of 1,000 yards, let’s look at Mike Evans for Sunday’s slate. Evans tied Jerry Rice’s record of 11 straight seasons with at least 1,000 yards by catching a short pass on the final play of the game against the Saints last week. He finished the year with 1,004 yards in his 14 games while also scoring 11 touchdowns and averaging 17.6 DraftKings points per contest.
Evans has the highest ceiling projection of all receivers on Sunday in the aggregate projections on both sites, and he brings the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well on FanDuel with the second-highest on DraftKings behind Khalil Shakir. Evans has a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he also matches more Pro Trends than any other receiver this weekend with nine.
In three of his last four games, Evens has at least eight catches, and he has been the clear go-to option in the Bucs’ passing game since the season-ending injury to Chris Godwin (ankle). Jalen McMillan has emerged as a solid complement, but Evans still gets most of the targets and is a go-to option in the red zone for Baker Mayfield.
Evans had five catches for 61 yards and two scores against the Commanders back in Week 1 and should thrive in the rematch on Sunday.
Since Evans is a high-priced play, you may need some alternatives if you need to save salary. On Sunday, Shakir, DeVonta Smith, and Olamide Zaccheaus stand out as the top cheap plays.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Saturday Pick: Mark Andrews vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $4,700 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Andrews got off to a sluggish start to the year and drew the ire of fantasy owners, but he finished with an impressive run and should be very involved on Saturday since the Ravens’ top receiver Zay Flowers (knee) has already been ruled out. In the aggregate projections, Andrews has the top ceiling projection at tight end on DraftKings and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus and ceiling projection at the position on FanDuel.
In each of his last six games, Andrews has found the end zone and exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He had four catches for 54 yards and a score in the regular season finale against the Browns last week, and he finished with 55 catches for 673 yards in his 17 games.
Andrews scored in Week 16 against the Steelers when he hauled in four catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. He had 13.8 DraftKings points in that matchup and has hit double-digit DraftKings points in six straight games dating back to the Ravens’ first matchup with the Steelers. Tight ends totaled seven scores against the Steelers this season, averaging 56.4 receiving yards per contest.
Sunda Pick: Tucker Kraft at Philadelphia Eagles – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,200 on FanDuel
Sunday’s slate is very interesting at tight end without any massive names but with several solid options. Kraft has the top Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregate on DraftKings and the second-highest ceiling behind Zach Ertz. On FanDuel, he ranks behind only Ertz in both ceiling and Projected Plus/Minus. Both are strong plays, but of the two I like the upside of Kraft a little more.
Kraft was an absolute fantasy stud early in the season when the Packers were short-handed at receiver. He had some down games in the middle of the year but re-emerged down the stretch as a frequent target for Jordan Love. He led the team in targets last week and finished with four catches on seven targets for 36 yards. That production gave him 707 receiving yards on the year to go with his seven touchdowns.
While he hasn’t found the end zone in the last four weeks, Kraft has shown big-play and red-zone ability, which gives him a high ceiling if the Packers need to score points in bunches to keep up with the Eagles. The Eagles gave up five tight end touchdowns this season, four of which came in the final six weeks of the season.