UFC

UFC Vegas 101 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Ribas vs. Dern, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Jan 10, 2025

After the annual holiday break, the UFC returns to kick off the 2025 “season” with a 14-fight card at the Apex. Headlined by a rematch between Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern, the 14-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Amanda Ribas ($8,500) vs. Mackenzie Dern ($7,700)

The first main event of 2025 is a rematch between two popular fighters. The first meeting was a fairly dominant win for Amanda Ribas back in October of 2019, with both women having largely similar career arcs since then.

Both fighters in this matchup are lifelong grapplers who started at an early age under the training of their black belt fathers. For Dern, her start was in BJJ, where she went on to win multiple world titles in both gi and no-gi grappling.

Ribas got her start in Judo but now holds black belts in both arts. That Judo background helped her tremendously in her first matchup with Dern, as Ribas was able to land takedowns, while Dern wasn’t. Neither woman is an especially effective striker, though Ribas is a bit more dynamic in that area.

It’s tough for me to see how Dern pulls ahead here, as Ribas should control where this fight takes place with her superior takedowns and takedown defense. All things considered, don’t be shocked if the rematch looks fairly similar to the first fight between the two.

That might not be enough for Ribas to make the optimal lineups for GPPs, but would clearly make her a strong cash game play. I’m actually fine with fading Dern in cash if you have a similarly priced alternative. However, with -200 odds to go all five rounds, the easier/safer play is to stack this one.

The Easy Chalk

Jacobe Smith ($9,400)

Jacobe Smith was a late addition to the UFC Vegas 101 card, stepping in after Preston Parson’s ($7,800) original opponent pulled out. That’s created a situation where he and Parsons are collectively overpriced, with a salary $1,000 higher than the typical matchup.

However, that overpricing is on the Parsons side. Since Smith was put into this matchup, he’s moved to be the second-heaviest favorite on the slate. When his DFS salary came out, he had odds around -350. They’ve now ballooned as high as -600 at some books.

Smith was arguably the top prospect in the 2024 Contender Series season, with the possible exception of another fighter on this card. He was a three-time All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State (alma mater of Daniel Cormier), who’s 9-0 as an MMA fighter with seven finishes, six in the first round.

While Parsons is known for his own wrestling ability, he’s clearly a level or two below Smith in that department. As I noted in my Contender Series breakdown on Smith, he’s not the most technical striker, but he has great speed and power and has shown improvement on the feet as his career has progressed.

Smith is -160 to pick up a finish here, and an extended fight probably comes with tons of takedowns and control time. Either way, he’s a safe bet for a big score so long as his cardio isn’t impacted by the short-notice nature of the fight.

The Upside Play

Austin Bashi ($8,900)

There are plenty of solid options at the top end of the price range this week. Most of the top fighters have some combination of finishing or grappling upside. Factoring in salary, my favorite among them is Austin Bashi.

The Michigan native is 13-0 at just 23 years old. He’s also a multiple-time all-state wrestler and IBJJF brown belt world champion (who’s since received his black belt). Oh, and he competed nationally in amateur Muay Thai as well.

That’s about as perfect of a resume as possible for a young prospect. While he faces a tough initial test in Christian Rodriguez ($7,300), Bashi is a deserving favorite here. While Rodriguez derailed the Raul Rosas hype train, don’t forget that Rosas took Rodriguez down three times in the first round of their fight.

Rodriguez was also taken down seven times in his split decision win against Isaac Dulgarian, so the path forward is pretty clear for Bashi. Assuming he doesn’t run out of gas like Rosas — and he shouldn’t — he should be able to dominate with his wrestling and grappling.

That means even if Bashi can’t find a finish here, he should rack up tons of takedowns along the way. His fight on the Contender Series would’ve netted him north of 130 DraftKings points — and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a similar score here.

The Value Play

Nicolle Caliari ($7,000)

I was genuinely surprised to see the betting line/DraftKings salary on Caliari for her fight against Ernesta Kareckaite ($9,200). Kareckaite snuck into the UFC with a split decision win that many people thought should’ve gone the other way on the Contender Series. She followed that up with a clear loss in her UFC debut.

In fact, all of Kareckaite’s wins against opponents with winning records have come via split decision. That’s a sharp contrast to Caliari, who has finished all eight of her professional wins. She’s fought much tougher competition than Kareckaite as well, giving her by far the more impressive résumé.

From a DFS standpoint, almost all of the finishing upside belongs to Caliari. Kareckaite is a low-power volume striker, while Caliari has more power and better grappling. That gives Caliari a floor of a 15-minute decision loss, but the upside for much more.

That makes her an excellent cash game option on a slate where we’d like to load up on expensive fighters. It also keeps her in the discussion for GPPs since she could choose a grappling-heavy gameplan and/or find a finish.

The Contrarian Choice

Trey Ogden ($7,900)

This card features plenty of underdogs for whom it’s easy to paint a picture of how they get the job done. One of those that isn’t catching much ownership steam is Trey Ogden.

Ogden has seen his moneyline odds come in a bit for his fight against Thiago Moises ($8,300). Ogden opened around +160 but is now just a +140 or so underdog, depending on the sportsbook. That makes him a reasonable value at his price point, no matter what you think of the fight.

Ogden should be 3-0 since opening his own gym and splitting from James Krause a couple of years back. He’s not, but only because a fight he was winning was deemed a no contest after the referee stopped things early. Ogden had his opponent in a locked-on submission, but the ref thought his opponent had passed out before he was able to get the tap.

Regardless, he’s been on quite the streak recently and should have a considerable grappling edge over Moises, who’s gone 1-2 across his last three fights. Ogden is slightly too thin for cash games, but he’s a solid GPP option.

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The Swing Fight

Carlston Harris ($8,200) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8,000)

The co-main event at UFC Vegas 101 features two wild strikers, both of whom are getting on in years and not known for their defensive prowess even under the best of circumstances.

Carlston Harris is coming back from a first-round knockout loss last May at the hands of Khaos Williams, while Ponzinibbio has lost four of his last five. In the latter’s defense, three of those were split decisions, so he could just as easily be 4-1 in that time frame.

Harris’ only other loss came against presumptive title challenger Shavkat Rakhmonov, with three finishes in his other four UFC fights. Ponzinibbio has six knockouts among his 11 UFC wins.

This fight is -175 to end inside the distance, the best odds of any fight without a clear favorite. Ponzinibbio is the clear better value here, though. He opened as a slight underdog but is now favored at about -135.

Still, that makes Harris a solid GPP option, since most of the field won’t want to pay up to roster an underdog fighter. Either way, there’s a strong case for both fighters.

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.