Thursday’s main slate on DraftKings features the first seven games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at Phoenix Suns – $10,300
With Jalen Johnson (shoulder) sidelined, Young is a worthy spend for all formats. With Johnson inactive Tuesday vs. the Jazz, Young finished with 60.5 DraftKings points, including a whopping 20 assists. The guard is producing 51.2 DraftKings PPG with Johnson inactive this season (five games) and Young’s assist rate has increased 5.9 percentage points to a huge 52.9% in those starts.
The Suns rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (238.5 points). Young should tally another huge double-double in this settin,g and his ceiling is near 65 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Isaiah Collier vs. Miami Heat – $4,200
Collier has started the last two games for the Jazz with Keyonte George (heel), Jordan Clarkson (foot), and John Collins (hip) out, and Collier has seen 26.7 minutes per game en route to 19.1 DraftKings PPG with the starting role. Those three players will remain unavailable on Thursday, and Collier should continue to start.
Ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, the Heat aren’t a great matchup, but Collier should approach 30 minutes and is rating as a strong value with this type of volume. For the last five occasions the rookie has logged at least 20 minutes, Collier has scored at least 23.5 DraftKings points four times.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,000
In the Suns’ second game with Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic coming off the bench, Booker was terrific as the starting lineup’s featured player Tuesday vs. the Hornets, erupting for 62.5 DraftKings points. Beal and Nurkic are expected to remain reserves for the foreseeable future, resulting in more usage for both Booker and Kevin Durant in the first unit, and Booker has a ceiling worth perusing in GPPs tonight in this elite spot vs. the Hawks.
Atlanta ranks second in pace, and Phoenix’s implied team total is the second-largest on the slate (121.25 points). Booker should thrive in this spot and easily brings the highest ceiling among shooting guards in our ShotQuality projections.
Top Value: Terry Rozier at Utah Jazz – $5,000
With Jimmy Butler suspended for the last two games, Rozier has seen a huge role of 36.6 minutes per game, which has resulted in 28.75 DraftKings PPG for the veteran. Rozier handles a 21% usage rate with Butler off the court this season and with the wing remaining away from the team Thursday, Rozier is an appealing value play against the Jazz’s soft defense.
Utah ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, and Rozier should cruise past 5x value in this juicy spot.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Amen Thompson at Memphis Grizzlies – $7,100
Thompson is one of the best targets on the slate with Jabari Smith Jr. (hand) sidelined. Thompson has replaced Smith Jr. in the Rockets’ starting five for their past two games, and Thompson hasn’t disappointed, posting 49 DraftKings points vs. the Lakers and then 52.3 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards.
Thompson is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Smith Jr. off the court this season, and Thompson has been very productive when playing with the Rockets’ first unit, scoring at least 36 DraftKings points in all seven of the starts he has made this season. Thompson is averaging a double-double as a starter and going against this Grizzlies team that leads the league in pace. He is a strong bet for over 40 DraftKings points. This game’s total is the third-highest total on the slate at 235.5 points, which is tied for the largest total Houston has competed in this season.
Top Value: Garrison Matthews at Phoenix Suns – $3,400
In this slate-high total between the Hawks and Suns (238.5 points), Matthews is a compelling punt play. The sharpshooter has recorded at least 21 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games, and he should see a solid role off the bench with Johnson inactive.
Matthews is amassing 20.9 DraftKings points in 24.3 minutes with Johnson out this season (five games) – via the On/Off Tool – and Matthews is clearly underpriced for this situation at only $3,400.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Deni Avdija at Dallas Mavericks – $7,100
Assuming Jerami Grant (face) remains out, Avdija will be a great bargain at this price point. With Grant inactive last night, Avdija exposed the Pelicans for 41 DraftKings points. The veteran has now made seven starts for Grant this season and produced 37.9 DraftKings points in 35.1 minutes per game with the starting job, via the On/Off Tool.
Avdija is amassing 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 22.8% usage rate with Grant off the floor this season, and Avdija should easily exceed five-times value tonight if Grant is inactive again, regardless of this being a subpar matchup with a Mavericks defense that ranks 12th in efficiency.
Top Value: Simone Fontecchio vs. Golden State Warriors – $3,200
Fontecchio has seen a solid role off the bench with Jaden Ivey (out, leg) sidelined, with the former averaging 24.4 DraftKings points in 22.3 minutes per game in the Pistons’ last two. Fontecchio is generating 0.73 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has knocked down multiple threes in each of these past two games.
While Fontecchio isn’t the safest play, his near minimum salary doesn’t reflect his recent workload and he is a viable punt play tonight if you need the savings.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Evan Mobley vs. Toronto Raptors – $8,000
By nearly five points, the Cavaliers boast the highest implied team total on the slate (126 points), and Mobely is the best way to gain a piece of Cleveland. The big man just posted 48 DraftKings points against the Thunder and their league-best defense last night, and now, Mobley meets a Raptors defense that is the fourth-worst-rated unit in the league. Additionally, Toronto ranks sixth in pace and they are giving up the sixth-most points in the paint.
Mobley is providing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with a career-high 23.6% usage rate this season and when playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or more, the 23-year-old has been sensational with 44.1 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Dereck Lively vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $5,400
While Daniel Gafford (ankle) is listed as questionable, Mavericks’ HC Jason Kidd said Gafford is “going to be out for some time” when asked about the center on Monday. Gafford went on to miss the Mavericks next game, and he feels likely to miss tonight as well. If that ends up being the case, Lively will be a strong option that shouldn’t come with much ownership.
While the big man finished with only 18.5 DraftKings points with Gafford out Tuesday vs. the Lakers, this was a direct result of Lively only seeing 19 minutes due to foul trouble. In the only other game Gafford has missed this season, Lively posted 32.3 DraftKings points across 29 minutes vs. the Knicks. This is the type of upside Lively brings sans Gafford, and if the center is out as expected, Lively should easily outproduce his $5,400 salary against this Trail Blazers defense that ranks 27th in efficiency.
